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Dublin North East


LgCastell

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Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
689
Apologies if there is a thread on this already but I couldnt find one and as most Dublin constituencies have been discussed in depth I thought this one should be too

Lets start with Labour. Tommy Broughan has had the whip reinstated and although he may have messed up his chances of being frontbench/junior ministry because of losing the whip should be return fairly easily and may top the poll with the green vote gone which gave him 2000+ votes in 2007

the question is who will run along with him. looking at the cllrs of artane/whitewall, donaghmeague and malahide/howth which i believe makes up this constituencies. Tommy base would probably be seen as artane/donaghmeague as he has been elected at local level there that may give Howth/Malahide's Cian O callaghan or PEter Coyle to possibly get the nudge although montague has had a raised profile recently so he could be an option O Callaghan is a new young cllr and would seem to fit the target of lab trying to get in some new young faces but i dont know what the local cllrs are like in this area

FG look set to hold one with Flanagan safe enough

FF are having a tough time in dublin and woods will hardly run as he'd be nudging 80 by the end of the 31st dail who will run then for FF here Eoghan o brien (brother of TD Darragh) could get the go ahead but unlikely to get elected as FF only have three cllrs in all the LEA that make up this constituency

SF are sure to run Larry O Toole and will probably run Lab #2 close and could nudge it on a good day the thing favouring Lab#2 would be the transfer friendliness of Lab in over SF and should do well of Green/FF transfers where there will be some core vote for them

the question is what stage the Lab convention is at on selecting a co runner any rumors/rumblings from Labs in the know?

I'm going to say Tommy to top then Flanagan then lab#2 to get in on transfers ahead of O' Toole
 

onthefence

Active member
Joined
Aug 23, 2007
Messages
125
I hope you are right but I still think there is a strong FF vote here. Remember at the last election Woods and his running mate almost pulled off two seats. The redrawing of the constituency will make a changes and I hope it will wipe them out.
 

LgCastell

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Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
689
yes i know there was a large FF vote but i think a large chunk of this could be a personal vote for Woods as hes been there donkey's years and which may transfer easily if he doesnt run

i dont know the intentions of the other FF who ran in 2007 but thought that FF will prob go with a cllr that has been on the ground in the area if they were to have any chance

it is hard to see the FF vote go from nearly electing 2 out of three to none but FF are desimated in Dublin and i think its quite possible
 

Conor

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Apr 7, 2004
Messages
5,206
Broughan and Flanagan will hold comfortably. The third will be a toss up between FF, SF and the second Lab. Assuming Woods steps down, his personal vote will be up for grabs. Brady's had a strong enough presence too, but I don't know how much he'll have lost since losing his seat.
The wildcard is Killian Forde. He'll have a strong claim onto the labour ticket (a deal may have already been struck), which would certainly leach votes from SF, but he'll be fishing from the same pool as Broughan. O'Callaghan might be a better complement to Broughan, but will they be able to take votes from O'Toole? Or would they pick up enough from Woods' personal votes without having to worry about SF?

FF could hang on here on a good day, but I'd say more likely 2 Lab, 1 FG. Could be an interesting bellwether for FF's prospects in Dublin though.
 

redzer

Member
Joined
Jun 18, 2010
Messages
48
I doubt Forde is interested - he's been very quiet since he came over to Labour.
Can Kenny get selected, win a seat and defend it when the term is up?
O'Callaghan has been keeping busy working and is young. He'd be the better replacement for Broughan after he retires and would retain one seat for Labour.
Brian McDowell, the failed local election candidate is apparently trying to get selected - but after failing to hold on to a well held seat (Broughan's old one) in a ward that has returned two Labour seats for donkeys years, he has to be the worst candidate possible to win a second Dail seat.
 

msteiner

Active member
Joined
Nov 20, 2010
Messages
112
Yeah, Labour two seats sounds pretty accurate to me. Say good bye to FF in Dublin.
 

LgCastell

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Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
689
according to the tribune sean kenny is Brougnan's running mate

Any local knowledge?
His chances?
 

collina

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Joined
Oct 8, 2006
Messages
3,446
Dublin NE has a lot of varied constituents but I wonder when the last time there was no FF elected to the Dail.
 

Conor

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Apr 7, 2004
Messages
5,206
according to the tribune sean kenny is Brougnan's running mate

Any local knowledge?
His chances?
I thought he had retired. Is it a relative?
 

LgCastell

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
689
i dont know thats what the article said though i thought they run with O' Callaghan or Forde tbh ...
 

Reality bites

Active member
Joined
Dec 4, 2006
Messages
199
Labour DNE selection convention is on Monday night. Between Sean Kenny (ex-TD for this constituency in 92) and Cian O'Callaghan of sutton-howth end.
Cian would be a better geographic balance and being young presents a new image but Sean is a proven vote getter.

Talk of FF running Averil Power here but if Woods retires Sen. Martin Brady would be expected candidate but he's in his 60's and may not be the image FF want to present.

SF will do well here but O'Toole will have a lot of work to do

Any idea on who 2nd FG candidate will be
 

LgCastell

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 28, 2010
Messages
689
Labour DNE selection convention is on Monday night. Between Sean Kenny (ex-TD for this constituency in 92) and Cian O'Callaghan of sutton-howth end.
Cian would be a better geographic balance and being young presents a new image but Sean is a proven vote getter.
I see well the examiner has got its wires crossed then I'd say go with O'Callaghan as i said on the opening post here he would compliment Brougnan by being from Howth sutton end as you said and is a young new face

I dont know what FG #2
 

aegeus

Active member
Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
106
What about the FG present Lord Mayor Gerry Breen from the Clontarf Ward in North Central ????
 

MacCoise2

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Joined
Nov 20, 2009
Messages
2,849
Where is brody sweeney ? :) the howth and portmarnock end seems to be lacking a candidate alright
 

LMN3

Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
67
Where is brody sweeney ? :) the howth and portmarnock end seems to be lacking a candidate alright
Brody Sweeney left Fine Gael sharply after the boxes were opened at the General Election count last time.

Cllr Alan Farrell has just been selected to run in Dublin North.

Cllrs Maher (Howth-Malahide) and Crimmins (Donaghmede) will not be candidates.

If Dáil falls on budget in a matter of hours, most likely only one Fine Gael candidate - the incumbent.
 
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