Dublin North East

LMN3

Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
67


dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,474
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com

LMN3

Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
67
But isn't there a chunk coming in from Portmarnock that's good (middle-class) LP territory?

Portmarnock is not Labour - it is Coyle. And it is not as refined as your think.
Look at the history ie percentages voting coarse FF at General Elections. Many of these may be tempted over to Sinn Féin. Perhaps a few 'state visits' from Deputy Doherty might help.

A game changer would be if Coyle 'featured' on the ballot paper.
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Yeah but then you've a fair chunk of Portmarnock along with that - an area which wouldn't be receptive to SF.

In most other cases the SP/PbP tend to transfer mainly to Labour and in one or two cases FG before SF.
 

LMN3

Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
67
Anything like the capitulation from FF to SF as seen in DSW by-election recently will deliver the seat to SF. Another key factor will be the turnout from Priorswood. There is scope for SF to marshal a higher turnout this time.
 

dotski_w_

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 28, 2004
Messages
2,474
Website
irishpollingreport.wordpress.com
Portmarnock is not Labour - it is Coyle. And it is not as refined as your think.
Look at the history ie percentages voting coarse FF at General Elections. Many of these may be tempted over to Sinn Féin. Perhaps a few 'state visits' from Deputy Doherty might help.

A game changer would be if Coyle 'featured' on the ballot paper.
mehh.... it's not exactly the sort of FF vote that SF are attracting in Dublin - and yes I do know it, and while it's not upper middle class, it's still middle class (at least it would consider itself so).

Agree Coyle might get the vote out in greater numbers there, but he's already ruled himself out AFAIK, and also it would make the ticket look even more 'old man' than at present.....
 

Sierra

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 26, 2007
Messages
3,483
Has the FF convention actually occurred in DNE to determine what candidates are to run in the election?

Averil Power has been knocking on doors and canvassing very intensively in the constituency for well over a year now, I would not be surprised if she had a sufficient profile amongst the voters at this stage to go ahead with a decent stab at contesting the election.

If she is not blocked by the local FF organisation, she is one to watch out of the entire 2011 GE.
 

EvotingMachine0197

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 17, 2006
Messages
8,552
Portmarnock is not Labour - it is Coyle. And it is not as refined as your think.
Look at the history ie percentages voting coarse FF at General Elections. Many of these may be tempted over to Sinn Féin. Perhaps a few 'state visits' from Deputy Doherty might help.

A game changer would be if Coyle 'featured' on the ballot paper.

I think it would only add to Labour's woes if Coyle was added. Peter would not be capable at a National level. My experience is that he is barely capable at a Portmarnock level. Even though supported...

Since the DN->DNE boundary change was announced, I reckon Flanagan has been at my door at least three times.

Looking like a 1 for Flanagan and a major disappointment over O'Callaghan.

What else can a man do ..
 

RahenyFG

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 17, 2010
Messages
9,094
But isn't there a chunk coming in from Portmarnock that's good (middle-class) LP territory?
Labour are safe anyway in this constituency. Broughan topped the poll last time and has the respect of people in the area.

Also if it's the case that Portmarnock is entering the Dublin North East constituency bringing in Labour voters, that would be a good thing for Sinn Fein. They are Labour's fellow lefties after all.
 

cillian32

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 9, 2010
Messages
4,075
IF SF gets its vote out they will take a seat,people are angry and turnout should be high.
 

RahenyFG

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 17, 2010
Messages
9,094
IF SF gets its vote out they will take a seat,people are angry and turnout should be high.
People are angry but they are also disillusioned with politics in general. It's hard to predict whether this election will have a good turnout or a poor turnout.
 

KingKane

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
2,323
Website
www.danielsullivan.ie
Twitter
kingkane
How much of O'Toole's Artane ward got transfered to Dublin North Central btw?

I wouldn't be certain about O'Toole. The boundary changes don't seem to favour him.
Artane wasn't transferred to DNC, it was always in DNC. It was that a portion of Artane that was transferred to DNW. Of course Artane is now Artane Whitehall.

The upside for O'Toole is that those who are more likely to be eliminated are more likely to transfer to him. Flanagan should be ok, but he has to grow his 1st preference vote from the under 13% he got the last time to over 20% as those who are going to be eliminated are more likely to trend left in their transfers. FF could suffer a loss of almost half their vote (which they might if they run one) and still retain it if they were ahead of FG on the first count as the transfers from those eliminated might split evenly between them especially if Labour and SF candidates have taken the bulk of the transfers. Much was made of the fact in 07 that it was O'Toole transfers that carried Flanagan move the finishing line but that missing the point that FF attracted SF transfers at the rate of close to 2:1 compared to FG. If FF held 60% of their vote from last time with just one candidate and Labour and SF got the lions share of the Green and FF vote then Flanagan could be in trouble.

But I don't think that will happen cos I think FF will run 2.

My seat of my pants prediction right now is

Terence Flanagan 21%
Tommy P Broughan 18%
Sean Kenny 16%
Larry O'Toole 15%
FF 1 14%
FF 2 10%
Brian Greene 5%
An.Other 2%
 

RahenyFG

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 17, 2010
Messages
9,094
My seat of my pants prediction right now is

Terence Flanagan 21%
Tommy P Broughan 18%
Sean Kenny 16%
Larry O'Toole 15%
FF 1 14%
FF 2 10%
Brian Greene 5%
An.Other 2%
KingKane, where did you hear Sean Kenny was running? He hasn't ran for the Dail since 1997 when he was seeking re-election. He's a happy councillor. I can't see him running for the Dail again, especially at his age.
 

LMN3

Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
67
Sean Kenny was selected at Labour convention to run with Tommy Broughan to keep Cian and Killian in their boxes.
 

edwin

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 5, 2009
Messages
6,127
Artane wasn't transferred to DNC, it was always in DNC. It was that a portion of Artane that was transferred to DNW. Of course Artane is now Artane Whitehall.

The upside for O'Toole is that those who are more likely to be eliminated are more likely to transfer to him. Flanagan should be ok, but he has to grow his 1st preference vote from the under 13% he got the last time to over 20% as those who are going to be eliminated are more likely to trend left in their transfers. FF could suffer a loss of almost half their vote (which they might if they run one) and still retain it if they were ahead of FG on the first count as the transfers from those eliminated might split evenly between them especially if Labour and SF candidates have taken the bulk of the transfers. Much was made of the fact in 07 that it was O'Toole transfers that carried Flanagan move the finishing line but that missing the point that FF attracted SF transfers at the rate of close to 2:1 compared to FG. If FF held 60% of their vote from last time with just one candidate and Labour and SF got the lions share of the Green and FF vote then Flanagan could be in trouble.

But I don't think that will happen cos I think FF will run 2.

My seat of my pants prediction right now is

Terence Flanagan 21%
Tommy P Broughan 18%
Sean Kenny 16%
Larry O'Toole 15%
FF 1 14%
FF 2 10%
Brian Greene 5%
An.Other 2%
I hope you're right but I think 24% in DNE is ludicrously optimistic for FF. Would be crazy to do anything other than run Martin Brady as a single candidate. At best he'll poll mid to high teens and get stuck there.
 

RahenyFG

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 17, 2010
Messages
9,094
Sean Kenny was selected at Labour convention to run with Tommy Broughan to keep Cian and Killian in their boxes.
Sean Kenny was "selected" at convention a month ago.
Thanks for that confirmation. Seems rather surprising to me. Kenny is 69 this year. Old enough to be running and also surprising considering he hasn't ran for a general election since 1997.
 

LMN3

Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
67
Thanks for that confirmation. Seems rather surprising to me. Kenny is 69 this year. Old enough to be running and also surprising considering he hasn't ran for a general election since 1997.
The point is Tommy didn't want a running mate and this is the fudge. If Labour ran Broughan Coyle & Forde they would be guaranteed 2 seats - and it could have been any three
 

RahenyFG

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 17, 2010
Messages
9,094
The point is Tommy didn't want a running mate and this is the fudge. If Labour ran Broughan Coyle & Forde they would be guaranteed 2 seats - and it could have been any three
It's certainly risque! I wonder could Forde run as an Independent now having been snubbed by Labour.
 

LMN3

Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
67
It's certainly risque! I wonder could Forde run as an Independent now having been snubbed by Labour.
my last sentence should have read 'it could have been any two.'


Doubt Forde will run independent - he would lack credibility.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top