Dublin North - FF wipeout

controller

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According to this weeks Fingal Independent, FF are set to lose both seats in Dublin North. This news has brought a tear to my eye, and a smile to my face. But seriously, do people believe this. I think that FF will keep one seat.


FIANNA Fáil is facing an election wipeout in the coming months with both Dublin North TDs set to lose their seats, a local senior party source has claimed. In an astonishing interview, the respected party member who wished to remain anonymous said the ousting of Taoiseach Brian Cowen was merely a ' matter of time' and predicted a General Election within six months, at which the Government would be ' decimated'.

Fingal News from The Fingal Independent Newspaper | News from Fingal, Co. Dublin & Leinster - Fingal-Independent.ie
 


LeDroit

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You'd imagine there'd have to be one seat. It's a five seater, if you gave Sargent one seat (personal vote), then to keep FF out, FG and Labour (or one with SP) would need to get two seats each. Can't see it. O'Brien should get back in at the expense of Kennedy.
 

orbit

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It's a four seater. Kennedy would have been under pressure due to loss of a lot of his base to neighbouring contituencies in the last revision. On a good day, they might hold onto one seat. On a bad day, they won't imo.
 

LeDroit

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It's a four seater. Kennedy would have been under pressure due to loss of a lot of his base to neighbouring contituencies in the last revision. On a good day, they might hold onto one seat. On a bad day, they won't imo.
My bad. Thought it was a five seater. That would mean two new TDs upscuttling two incumbents. Still can't see it.
 

controller

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Can't see it. O'Brien should get back in at the expense of Kennedy.
My thoughts exactly. Talking to friends who are party members (FF), they all feel that O'Brien will get back (narrowly) but he will get back
 

Libero

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Hmmm. I wonder if this sort of story has the effect of rallying the local FF troops to try and save at least one seat, or if it's more likely to energise the other parties' local structures to make sure they don't.
 

drjimryan2

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kennedy will take the 3rd seat after o'briens eliminaton, ryan will take the first (because they cant get candidate stratedgy right), the sargent, then kennedy with fg fighting with daly for the last................

if fg get a little better and ff get even lower in the polls, fg will take the third with a right olde fight between kennedy for the fourth with daly.....

as for the 'senior source'.........some cheek there......should put up and run themselves.......
 

LeDroit

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kennedy will take the 3rd seat after o'briens eliminaton, ryan will take the first (because they cant get candidate stratedgy right), the sargent, then kennedy with fg fighting with daly for the last................

if fg get a little better and ff get even lower in the polls, fg will take the third with a right olde fight between kennedy for the fourth with daly.....

as for the 'senior source'.........some cheek there......should put up and run themselves.......
FG will fly in here. James OReilly is the sitting TD. Kennedy has lost half his area to Dublin West. OBrien will take him out.
 

Pauli

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My bad. Thought it was a five seater. That would mean two new TDs upscuttling two incumbents. Still can't see it.
I think, LeDroit, you will be seeing things in the next general election that nobody, not you and not me, thought possible in the spring of 2008.
 

Rocket Man

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Tricky constituency to call.
The only certainty at this stage is that Lab will take a seat.
Then you have Reilly, Sargeant, O'Brien, Kennedy and Daly all fighting it out for the other three.
And if the Gilmore Gale was really blowing then a second Lab would not even be out of the question.
My best guess is that it will be: Ryan, Reilly, Sargeant and O'Brien.
 

making waves

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Tricky constituency to call.
The only certainty at this stage is that Lab will take a seat.
Then you have Reilly, Sargeant, O'Brien, Kennedy and Daly all fighting it out for the other three.
And if the Gilmore Gale was really blowing then a second Lab would not even be out of the question.
My best guess is that it will be: Ryan, Reilly, Sargeant and O'Brien.
Kennedy is gone. Ryan and Reilly will win easily. The last two seats are between Daly, Sargent, O'Brien and possibly a second LP candidate. Daly will win a seat before a second LP candidate and I cannot see both Sargent and O'Brien winning. On a really bad day for the government it could end up 2LP, 1FG and 1SP. And if it were to happen, DN would be the place that it would.
 

Mushroom

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Trevor the weasel isn't that secure out here. His complete invisibility when the Malahide viaduct fell down last Autumn didn't particularly endear himself to his voters.

In fact from what I saw - as a daily user of the commuter line - Darragh O'Brien (FF) was the only one of the north Dublin TDs to take any action on behalf of the affected commuters - and he kept at it for us!

Trev the Veg might as well have been buried deep in his organic compost heap for all the efforts that he made. Mind you, he may have been much too busy interfering with Garda prosecutions in Balbriggan to have been bothered about his stranded electorate.
 
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Kennedy is gone. Ryan and Reilly will win easily. The last two seats are between Daly, Sargent, O'Brien and possibly a second LP candidate. Daly will win a seat before a second LP candidate and I cannot see both Sargent and O'Brien winning. On a really bad day for the government it could end up 2LP, 1FG and 1SP. And if it were to happen, DN would be the place that it would.
Funny they made same predictions re 2007 and look how it turned out.
 

Mushroom

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Keith-M

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Tricky constituency to call.
The only certainty at this stage is that Lab will take a seat.
Then you have Reilly, Sargeant, O'Brien, Kennedy and Daly all fighting it out for the other three.
And if the Gilmore Gale was really blowing then a second Lab would not even be out of the question.
My best guess is that it will be: Ryan, Reilly, Sargeant and O'Brien.

There is certainly one Labour seat and Reilly is safe. After that perm 2 from 5.
 

Simbo67

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The good Doctor is safe as houses, are FG thinking of running a second candidate? They used to before Reilly.
As much as I'd love to see it, I think FF will come in with on seat.
 


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