Dublin North West Labour Selection

LgCastell

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Just saw on the Labour website that:

Roisin Shorthall TD
Cllr John Lyons

have been selected to run in Dublin North West. I don't know how long this has been decided on but I haven't seen any Labour posters discuss it

Heres the link

Blog archive » Labour Blog » The Labour Party

With specualtion rife of more FF retirements one wouldn't be blamed for questioning whether Noel Ahern or Pat Carey will run.

Also FG are lacking a good candidate here with Tormey being viewed as a lower option for FG at HQ level anyway

PolticalReform.ie have the RedC poll for DNW as

FF - 17.3%
FG - 10.4%
Lab - 46.8%
GP - 1.5%
SF - 21.5%
Oth - 2.5%

Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll 21 November 2010: Fianna Fail down to 29 seats? « politicalreform.ie

It looks like its going to be two Lab one SF

Shortall should top the poll and Lyons should get in with FG transfers whill SF should get in with any indo transfers and even though they might not make the quota should be ahead of FF and FG after a few counts

Any thoughts?
 


KingKane

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kingkane
If those who voted for FF didn't vote for SF or Labour before why would they simply swap over 100% now?

At least some of the loss of FF vote will go to FG, even if the majority goes to Labour and SF. Ellis got more in 2002 than in 2007 and more in 2004 than in 2009 in what was a larger ward. I think SF rise nationally (by 2/3% overall) will simply shore up Ellis vote in the mid teens. Labour's problem is that they would be unused to balancing a surge of this type and were they to get 40% plus then Shortall will get 30% plus of it leaving Lyons in the low teens and shortall's surplus of 6/7% will scatter (60% of it going to Lyons would be good going by any standards) so he gains 4% onto his 1st preference vote which puts him ahead of Ellis but I think he still needs transfers to be elected..
 

cllr

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Just saw on the Labour website that:

Roisin Shorthall TD
Cllr John Lyons

have been selected to run in Dublin North West. I don't know how long this has been decided on but I haven't seen any Labour posters discuss it

They were selected about a week ago I had the honour to Chair the Selection Convention. Besy wishes to both of them. They will both win in my opinion as will Dublin North West.
 

hiding behind a poster

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PolticalReform.ie have the RedC poll for DNW as

FF - 17.3%
FG - 10.4%
Lab - 46.8%
GP - 1.5%
SF - 21.5%
Oth - 2.5%
Can you explain where politicalreform get those figures from?
 

Seanie Lemass

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Nov 26, 2010
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Carey has defied the odds before and is popular locally but will be really up against it this time. His strongholds are the same as the Shinners and apparently they transfer heavily between one another. That would indicate that if Carey goes then Ellis will win. FG might have had chance had they not selected the, ahem, 'colourful' Dr. Tormey. Danger is that if they dump him now, they will find it hard to build up a replacement and they are traditionally extremely weak in the working class areas of what is a very left wing electorate which is not going to be fooled by Inda.
 


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