• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.




Dublin South

davehiggz

Well-known member
Joined
May 7, 2009
Messages
1,116
Last edited:


Econdo

Active member
Joined
Jun 8, 2009
Messages
180
I would think that M Corrigan would fair out better than Shay Brennan, I don't see how looking at what Shay achieved in the By-Election can give any indication on haw he would perform in a general election as he was the only FF candidate running and still only received around 10,000 number 1 votes, a poor showing on the face of it.....

Mind you someone last night mention a possibility to me that a certain B Andrews could make a move into DS to fight for a seat as DL looks hairy for him..anyone hear similar?
 

QuizMaster

Well-known member
Joined
May 26, 2004
Messages
3,208
Website
www.quizmatic.com
4 for the FG/Lab party is a tall order.
E. Ryan could hang on, displacing either A. Shatter or O.Mitchell.
Or maybe Alex White is living in his own nightmarish groundhog day.
Or maybe you're right.
We'll find out soon enough.
 

tenderloins1

Active member
Joined
Mar 28, 2007
Messages
211
Twitter
@electionlit
Dublin South was to a degree reflective of the national vote in 2007

Fianna Fail got 41.3% which was around their national vote share of 41.6%
Fine Gael got 27%.3 which was the same as their national vote share
Labour got 10.4% which again was around their national vote share of 10.1%

However the Greens and PDs did better here than nationally.
Greens got 11% as opposed to 4.7% nationally
PDs got 6.6% as opposed to 2.7% nationally

Unsuprisingly Sinn Fein did worse here than nationally.
SF got 3% as opposed to 6.9 nationally

So if we go with the poll from the other day
FF should get 17%
FG should get 34%
Lab should get 24%
GP 3% should translate to 7%
SF 10% should translate to 5%

Yet there will be no significant Independent candidate for the 13%. And we have Geroge Lee also.:p
I think it will end up something like
FF 17%
FG 45%
Lab 24%
GP 7%
SF 5%
others 2%

So 3 Fine Gael seats is no foregone conclusion. They should have the votes but it will take some vote management to reign George Lees vote in.
Not just that but if he has a surplus, his votes will go all over the place.
Lee to get in with Mitchell but Shatter to lose out.

Fianna Fail have the votes for a seat, but who will run? No matter what the combination they will only have enough for a single seat. Will Kitt run?
If not they must be tempted to run Lahart, Corrigan and Shay Brennan. If they run 3 they could be in trouble and have a lot of transfer leakage. If they run just 2, then someone may be mightily pissed off.

Labour have to have the guts to run two candidates again. Whilst White should get in, the choice of second candidate will be important. If they could get Ivana Backik or the like (rather than Aidan Culhane) to run, they would be in with a good chance of two seats. Especially if the Second Labour candidate was ahead of Ryan when he is eliminated.

Ryan is in big trouble and has always relied on transfers to get him home. They wont be so available this time, nor will he hold on to his first pref vote.

The way I see it is
Lee
White
Mitchell

now the scrap
an FFer
2nd Labour candidate.

In a mighty scrap for the final two seats the Labour candidate may get enough transfers from FF and Ryan to overtake Shatter.
 
Joined
Aug 6, 2007
Messages
22,911
Love the assumption that Lee will top the Poll while reality is Shatter and Mitchell will be doing everything they can to ensure he leaves the Dail.

The idea that FG candidates are competing with other parties is a fallacy (its just as true for FF), they are competing for own seat first and doing everything they can to eliminate a threat now and in the future.
 
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
53
Lee and Mitchell will take the first 2 seats exceeding the quota helping to get Mitchell over the Line, The Sinn Féin candidate will be eliminated 1st, followed by the 3rd FFer who will help get 1 FF'er over the line with the final seat between Ryan, Shatter and the 2nd FFer with the second FFer eliminated and Ryan taking the 5th seat ahead of Shatter.
 

Simbo67

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Messages
572
Lee and Mitchell will take the first 2 seats exceeding the quota helping to get Mitchell over the Line, The Sinn Féin candidate will be eliminated 1st, followed by the 3rd FFer who will help get 1 FF'er over the line with the final seat between Ryan, Shatter and the 2nd FFer with the second FFer eliminated and Ryan taking the 5th seat ahead of Shatter.
Three FFers? Really?
 

Simbo67

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Messages
572
Brennan, Lahart and Mitchell but Lahart isnt a certainty.
Dont you mean Corrigan?
I was asking a broader strategy question, should FF not just run two people, three is going to split their vote too much and get them eliminated too early.
 

eoinod

Active member
Joined
Mar 21, 2008
Messages
261
I am presuming that the candidates are not in electoral order?

Mitchell & Lee will romp in, Alan Shatter will likely have a hard time regaining his seat (saying that I think that he should do it), the other two are a lot more popular locally than him.

I'd day that this prediction is fairly accurate but I would definately rate Corrigan's chances higher than Brennan's and would like to remind people that White only did marginally better than Brennan in the bye elections.
 
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
53
Dont you mean Corrigan?
Yes I do, get them mixed up, Sorry!

I was asking a broader strategy question, should FF not just run two people, three is going to split their vote too much and get them eliminated too early.
But if the 3rd candidate gets eliminated the vast majority of transfers will go to a fellow FF'er thus helping them get elected. With the party vote so low only the die-hard supporters are left, very few of the "undecideds" will go to us thus internal party transfer should be high.
 

Simbo67

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Messages
572
Yes I do, get them mixed up, Sorry!



But if the 3rd candidate gets eliminated the vast majority of transfers will go to a fellow FF'er thus helping them get elected. With the party vote so low only the die-hard supporters are left, very few of the "undecideds" will go to us thus internal party transfer should be high.
But you will end up with two and possibly three FFers down in the fight in the early rounds which means they will be no good and the very max you can get is one seat. If you are going to get lets say 20%, why run three candidates? This is going to be a problem all over the country if the FF vote stays at these figures. Too many candidates chasing too few votes. It will mean that a vote that would likely guarantee you one seat will produce none because no one candidate is sitting on a big enough pile of votes.
 
Joined
Feb 11, 2008
Messages
53
But you will end up with two and possibly three FFers down in the fight in the early rounds which means they will be no good and the very max you can get is one seat. If you are going to get lets say 20%, why run three candidates? This is going to be a problem all over the country if the FF vote stays at these figures. Too many candidates chasing too few votes. It will mean that a vote that would likely guarantee you one seat will produce none because no one candidate is sitting on a big enough pile of votes.
I Agree that we will run too may candidates but I still think we will run 3 in Dublin South, we ran way too many candidates in the local's and lost seats where we would have kept them if we had run less candidates.
 

Sister Mercedes

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2011
Messages
20,663
I can't find a more recent thread, so I'll post this here.

Not much sign of any 'new blood' emerging in the reduced to 3 seats Dublin (South) Rathdown constituency. Alan Shatter and Olivia Mitchell are up for Fine Gael. Alex White Labour. 71 year old newcomer Senator Mary White for FF. Deputy leader Catherine Martin for the Greens, Sorcha Nic Cormaic for SF, and two incumbent independents Shane Ross and Peter Mathews.

I'd say 1 Ross, one FG (probably Mitchell because she has the better local organization) and one other. Labour traditionally hasn't done well here. Maybe the Greens, but the Shinners could pull off an upset. They headed the poll in bourgeois Dundrum in the locals.

Alan Shatter: Fine Gael face 'enormous challenge' to secure two seats in Dublin Rathdown - Independent.ie
 

jackryan

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 3, 2008
Messages
3,747
I can't find a more recent thread, so I'll post this here.

Not much sign of any 'new blood' emerging in the reduced to 3 seats Dublin (South) Rathdown constituency. Alan Shatter and Olivia Mitchell are up for Fine Gael. Alex White Labour. 71 year old newcomer Senator Mary White for FF. Deputy leader Catherine Martin for the Greens, Sorcha Nic Cormaic for SF, and two incumbent independents Shane Ross and Peter Mathews.

I'd say 1 Ross, one FG (probably Mitchell because she has the better local organization) and one other. Labour traditionally hasn't done well here. Maybe the Greens, but the Shinners could pull off an upset. They headed the poll in bourgeois Dundrum in the locals.

Alan Shatter: Fine Gael face 'enormous challenge' to secure two seats in Dublin Rathdown - Independent.ie
Wouldn't be better to change the name of the thread as Dublin South won't exist at the next election?
 

RainyDay

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 14, 2003
Messages
2,552
I can't find a more recent thread, so I'll post this here.

Not much sign of any 'new blood' emerging in the reduced to 3 seats Dublin (South) Rathdown constituency. Alan Shatter and Olivia Mitchell are up for Fine Gael. Alex White Labour. 71 year old newcomer Senator Mary White for FF. Deputy leader Catherine Martin for the Greens, Sorcha Nic Cormaic for SF, and two incumbent independents Shane Ross and Peter Mathews.

I'd say 1 Ross, one FG (probably Mitchell because she has the better local organization) and one other. Labour traditionally hasn't done well here. Maybe the Greens, but the Shinners could pull off an upset. They headed the poll in bourgeois Dundrum in the locals.

Alan Shatter: Fine Gael face 'enormous challenge' to secure two seats in Dublin Rathdown - Independent.ie
Are you sure that Olivia is going to run? I was surprised that she didn't show for Vincent Browne's debate.
 

New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top