Dublin Sth Central predictions.

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codology

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Possibly the hardest constituency in the country to call with probably 9 in the running for 5 seats.FF currently hold 2 but wont get 2 next time Michael Mulcahy will stand but it appears that Sean Ardagh is too ill to stand so it couldbe one of his many relation who will stand.FG have Catherine Byrne who backed Enda to the hilt and her reward will probably be a free run in the GE.Current sitting TD Aengus o Snodaigh SF looked to be in difficulty after the locals but the decision of PBP to run Joan Collins instead of Ballyfermot based Brid Smith will be a big help to SF.Labour have 3 candidates Mary Upton who is probably the safest and Eric Byrne and Michael Conaghan.The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.In the locals PBP picked up close to 6000 votes in DSC if they can retain 80% of these they will be there till the death.
 


Red_93

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2 labour certain here. Possibly 3 if they get it right. You'd really need to push 40% to get 3. At the LEs labour had about 35%.
 

RightCentreLeft

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Possibly the hardest constituency in the country to call with probably 9 in the running for 5 seats.FF currently hold 2 but wont get 2 next time Michael Mulcahy will stand but it appears that Sean Ardagh is too ill to stand so it couldbe one of his many relation who will stand.FG have Catherine Byrne who backed Enda to the hilt and her reward will probably be a free run in the GE.Current sitting TD Aengus o Snodaigh SF looked to be in difficulty after the locals but the decision of PBP to run Joan Collins instead of Ballyfermot based Brid Smith will be a big help to SF.Labour have 3 candidates Mary Upton who is probably the safest and Eric Byrne and Michael Conaghan.The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.In the locals PBP picked up close to 6000 votes in DSC if they can retain 80% of these they will be there till the death.
I predict:

M. Upton,C. Byrne, M. Mulcahy, A. O'Snodaigh, Eric Byrne - in no particular order
 

codology

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2 labour certain here. Possibly 3 if they get it right. You'd really need to push 40% to get 3. At the LEs labour had about 35%.
You would imagine that with its locals vote and with doig well nationally that 3 is possible but in DSC the 3 candidates come from 3 different parties and so do many of their workers ie Upton traditional Labour,Byrne DL/WP and Conaghan is from the DSP,this means that transfer deals and cooperation between the 3 won't be great although Upton and Conaghan would be close.
 

Red_93

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You would imagine that with its locals vote and with doig well nationally that 3 is possible but in DSC the 3 candidates come from 3 different parties and so do many of their workers ie Upton traditional Labour,Byrne DL/WP and Conaghan is from the DSP,this means that transfer deals and cooperation between the 3 won't be great although Upton and Conaghan would be close.
Don't know much about the organisation of the LP in DSC, but in most constituencies, those divisions have long been filled in and it's generally only outsiders who make the distinction between sticks and old labour. Also, if labour were serious about 3 there, none of them would be allowed to have a surplus - the only one with the ability to do that is Upton but it's in labour's interest to keep her below the quota due to her transfer friendliness. Also, if any do have a surplus there's no guarantee it'll come back in transfers - much of this will be very soft.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Possibly the hardest constituency in the country to call with probably 9 in the running for 5 seats.FF currently hold 2 but wont get 2 next time Michael Mulcahy will stand but it appears that Sean Ardagh is too ill to stand so it couldbe one of his many relation who will stand.FG have Catherine Byrne who backed Enda to the hilt and her reward will probably be a free run in the GE.Current sitting TD Aengus o Snodaigh SF looked to be in difficulty after the locals but the decision of PBP to run Joan Collins instead of Ballyfermot based Brid Smith will be a big help to SF.Labour have 3 candidates Mary Upton who is probably the safest and Eric Byrne and Michael Conaghan.The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.In the locals PBP picked up close to 6000 votes in DSC if they can retain 80% of these they will be there till the death.
FG will be running a second candidate - probably down the Terenure/Walkinstown end.
 

Upper Chamber

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FG will be running a second candidate - probably down the Terenure/Walkinstown end.
Very interesting constituency Upton and C. Byrne safe, Byrne and Conaghan in with a chance each but the later can be a bit of a loose canon. SF weak, very hard to call what PBP will manage. They are essentially a protest party and it depends on whether people will get behind them or alternative gov. parties.
Ardagh is ill but will no doubt try and push one of his less than inspiring brood in. Might even be Catherine if she can remember where the constituency is. Mulcahy has a decent enough profile and a chance of retaining his seat. Eamonn Walsh (SDCC) might be run to pull in votes from the south of the constituency where he is building a presence, his oppostition in FG Colm Brophy likely to be the second FG candidate gets votes in much the same area.
 

Didimus

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The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.
Eric Byrne pulled in over 3600 votes in the locals while Michael C was on 2300. Most of the latters vote base is very local.
FG are very weak locally since Mitchell moved on and unless he changes his mind they will need to find a new name candidate.
Will be not surprised if Brid Smith also runs.
 

cricket

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Possibly the hardest constituency in the country to call with probably 9 in the running for 5 seats.FF currently hold 2 but wont get 2 next time Michael Mulcahy will stand but it appears that Sean Ardagh is too ill to stand so it couldbe one of his many relation who will stand.FG have Catherine Byrne who backed Enda to the hilt and her reward will probably be a free run in the GE.Current sitting TD Aengus o Snodaigh SF looked to be in difficulty after the locals but the decision of PBP to run Joan Collins instead of Ballyfermot based Brid Smith will be a big help to SF.Labour have 3 candidates Mary Upton who is probably the safest and Eric Byrne and Michael Conaghan.The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.In the locals PBP picked up close to 6000 votes in DSC if they can retain 80% of these they will be there till the death.
I couldn't imagine FG running just one candidate in a 5 seater. Have the socialist party ( Joe Higgins ) any presence at all here ? They're usually vying with PBP , although I've yet to figure out any areas of disagreement between them.
 

Didimus

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I couldn't imagine FG running just one candidate in a 5 seater. Have the socialist party ( Joe Higgins ) any presence at all here ? They're usually vying with PBP , although I've yet to figure out any areas of disagreement between them.
No real SP presence. FG had 3 candidates in 3 wards in the locals who pulled in about 4000 votes. One is Catherine Byrnes daughter who will not stand, another pulled in about 700. That leaves McGinley.
 

Crannog

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This is another interesting constituency. Labour should definitely pull 2 hear if they cant do it hear the gilmore gale would have blown itself out. I think SF should have enough in the tank to hold a seat and FG should take one. The question is will FF. They dont have a single councillor in the area since last years locals. But the generals are a different animal. A three way battle between FF labour and PBP for the last cant be ruled out. If PBP is ahead of the last labour candidate you would have to favour them.

2Labour 1FG 1SF 1PBP 4 shades of red.
 

The Salmon of Knowledge

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This is another interesting constituency. Labour should definitely pull 2 hear if they cant do it hear the gilmore gale would have blown itself out. I think SF should have enough in the tank to hold a seat and FG should take one. The question is will FF. They dont have a single councillor in the area since last years locals. But the generals are a different animal. A three way battle between FF labour and PBP for the last cant be ruled out. If PBP is ahead of the last labour candidate you would have to favour them.


2Labour 1FG 1SF 1PBP 4 shades of red.
Not no sure,perhaps wishful thinking, dont see a seat for sf and pbp.
 

Berchmans

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Possibly the hardest constituency in the country to call with probably 9 in the running for 5 seats.FF currently hold 2 but wont get 2 next time Michael Mulcahy will stand but it appears that Sean Ardagh is too ill to stand so it couldbe one of his many relation who will stand.FG have Catherine Byrne who backed Enda to the hilt and her reward will probably be a free run in the GE.Current sitting TD Aengus o Snodaigh SF looked to be in difficulty after the locals but the decision of PBP to run Joan Collins instead of Ballyfermot based Brid Smith will be a big help to SF.Labour have 3 candidates Mary Upton who is probably the safest and Eric Byrne and Michael Conaghan.The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.In the locals PBP picked up close to 6000 votes in DSC if they can retain 80% of these they will be there till the death.
As far as I remember, FF got their lowest vote nationally in the Drimnagh/Ballyfermot ward in last year's local elections and not much better in Crumlin. So, there's a good chance that they'll lose BOTH seats in an upcoming GE. Sean Ardagh would have been regarded as the stronger of the two sitting FF TDs, so Mulcahy would have been in the greater danger of losing his seat.

What illness does Ardagh have, BTW?
 

cogol

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Not a fan of Connaghan. Zero personality. and he has a dodgy tash
 

dotski_w_

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You would imagine that with its locals vote and with doig well nationally that 3 is possible but in DSC the 3 candidates come from 3 different parties and so do many of their workers ie Upton traditional Labour,Byrne DL/WP and Conaghan is from the DSP,this means that transfer deals and cooperation between the 3 won't be great although Upton and Conaghan would be close.
They shouldn't need to transfer at all. Upton will probably be on about a quota, and the other 2 should be 10-15% each on current polls, so their transfer rate shouldn't even arise. What they need is for that to put both of them ahead of SF/PBP, and then a decent transfer to both from them to stay ahead of FF1. pretty hard, even with the wind behind them, but far from impossible if FF collapse as much as is predicted.
 
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