Dublin Sth Central predictions.

Status
Not open for further replies.

Crannog

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 13, 2010
Messages
324
They shouldn't need to transfer at all. Upton will probably be on about a quota, and the other 2 should be 10-15% each on current polls, so their transfer rate shouldn't even arise. What they need is for that to put both of them ahead of SF/PBP, and then a decent transfer to both from them to stay ahead of FF1. pretty hard, even with the wind behind them, but far from impossible if FF collapse as much as is predicted.
This is a hard on to predict the left field is packed and it may well just come down to personality and profile. Only cert here is 2 labour 1 FG and a battle for the last 2 between SF, PBP,FF and Labour. The profile of the SF candidate should see him through against the rest of the field and then there will be a battle royale for the final seat.
 


ymmek

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Messages
3,078
Not a fan of Connaghan. Zero personality. and he has a dodgy tash
I am not surprised you are not a fan.Conaghan has stood up to sinn fein for many years and always walloped them in local elections.
 

codology

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2006
Messages
388
I am not surprised you are not a fan.Conaghan has stood up to sinn fein for many years and always walloped them in local elections.
Simply not true and you only have to go back to the election before last to see this.
 

ymmek

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
Messages
3,078
Simply not true and you only have to go back to the election before last to see this.
I remember when when he beating Tomas McGiolla and that was when McGiolla was a TD.Conaghan has been taking on all comers for a long time now and mostly as a poll topper.He was a great lord mayor and will make a fine TD.SF would have a much easier task without Conaghan.
 

Didimus

Well-known member
Joined
May 9, 2007
Messages
6,215
What's the story with Vincent Jackson? Heard rumours he might have been headed Labours way, and while he would not be a candidate his support might be useful.
 

Didimus

Well-known member
Joined
May 9, 2007
Messages
6,215
Indeed and I think FG are better placed to take two than Labour are to take three.
Agreed. Labour need only a slight uplift to get 2, but to get three would need both a Sring tide and good tranfers. If FG have a strong national performance they could have a shot at a second.
If they can find a candidate.
 

inchicore_republican

Well-known member
Joined
May 22, 2007
Messages
670
Looks like FG will run Ruairi McGinley as a second candidate because he has recently being all over the constituency launching this and opening that.
 

codology

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2006
Messages
388
Looks like FG will run Ruairi McGinley as a second candidate because he has recently being all over the constituency launching this and opening that.
Although he is close to the Gay Mitchell camp he wouldn't have a hope of being elected,Brophy up in Walkinstown/Greenhills would have some chance.
 

codology

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2006
Messages
388
What's the story with Vincent Jackson? Heard rumours he might have been headed Labours way, and while he would not be a candidate his support might be useful.
Vincent has no intention of standing in the General election but the nearly 2000 votes he has will be crucial.They should go to Conaghan,O Snodaigh and Collins mainly but I don't think there is any chance of Vincent "endorsing" any candidate.
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
26,628
Can't see two FG here - they got 14% in 2007. On a uniform swing, even the most optimistic polls for FG would have them on 18% or 19% max in DSC and no obvious sources of transfers.

Labour should be a certainty for two, while Byrne will be safe. I think it will be 2 Labour, 1 FG with the last two seats between Labour, FF and SF. I reckon FG transfers (if there are any) and PBP transfers mean it will be Labour and SF, so no seat for FF here.

I'd probably predict 3 Labour, 1 FG, 1 SF but I wouldn't rule out FF holding one at the expense of either Labour or SF.
 

Red_93

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 20, 2010
Messages
4,572
Can't see two FG here - they got 14% in 2007.
They got 14.5% in 2009 also. Absolutely no chance of a FG second seat here unless Mitchell comes back as far as I can see. Labour got over 2/3rds of the vote in 09.
 

codology

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2006
Messages
388
Can't see two FG here - they got 14% in 2007. On a uniform swing, even the most optimistic polls for FG would have them on 18% or 19% max in DSC and no obvious sources of transfers.

Labour should be a certainty for two, while Byrne will be safe. I think it will be 2 Labour, 1 FG with the last two seats between Labour, FF and SF. I reckon FG transfers (if there are any) and PBP transfers mean it will be Labour and SF, so no seat for FF here.

I'd probably predict 3 Labour, 1 FG, 1 SF but I wouldn't rule out FF holding one at the expense of either Labour or SF.
To be fair before the last GE I thought(and so did many others) that FF would struggle to hold 1 seat but they went and got the first 2 seat so rule out the die hards at your peril.
 

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
13,598
It would be a huge blow to SF if Aengus Ó Snódaigh lost his seat. I think Sean Crowe is seen unlikely, I heard according to Killian Forde, by the SF Ard-Oifig to hold his seat so that would mean that they would be mainly an Ulster party with a TD in Kerry.
 

grassroots

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 7, 2007
Messages
2,417
It would be a huge blow to SF if Aengus Ó Snódaigh lost his seat. I think Sean Crowe is seen unlikely, I heard according to Killian Forde, by the SF Ard-Oifig to hold his seat so that would mean that they would be mainly an Ulster party with a TD in Kerry.

that is a nice little phrase but it is unlikely to pan out. Two reasons. Its author is an idiot and SF will win some of the working class FF seats in Central, NW, SC, SW.
If anything the incumbant LAbour TDs would rather SF took out a few FFers than have a 2nd Labour TD about the place.
 

Blanchinner

Active member
Joined
Aug 25, 2010
Messages
217
It would be a huge blow to SF if Aengus Ó Snódaigh lost his seat. I think Sean Crowe is seen unlikely, I heard according to Killian Forde, by the SF Ard-Oifig to hold his seat so that would mean that they would be mainly an Ulster party with a TD in Kerry.
well if killian heard it sure it must be true , ... are you a blue shirt FF supporter who likes Labour ???...... what a stupid post ," I heard off so & so who hreard it off Vicky Pollard behind the ol shed wall ,I swear , I did ",.
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
26,628
It's got some truth to it. SF could be vulnerable to a Labour challenge in Kerry and DSC. There might be a chance of a few gains but nothing certain, and the most likely gains are the two Donegal constituencies.

It might not come to it, but SF could be in a situation of going from 4 TDs (dublin, kerry, louth and cavan-monaghan) to having 4 TDs (louth, cavan monaghan, Donegal SW and Donegal NE). It would start to look like a pretty northern-centric party if its only TDs were from border areas. As I say, probably won't come to that, but it can't be ruled out as a possibility.
 

codology

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 27, 2006
Messages
388
It would be a huge blow to SF if Aengus Ó Snódaigh lost his seat. I think Sean Crowe is seen unlikely, I heard according to Killian Forde, by the SF Ard-Oifig to hold his seat so that would mean that they would be mainly an Ulster party with a TD in Kerry.
Last time I looked Louth was in Leinster,has Killian moved it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.


Top Bottom