This is a hard on to predict the left field is packed and it may well just come down to personality and profile. Only cert here is 2 labour 1 FG and a battle for the last 2 between SF, PBP,FF and Labour. The profile of the SF candidate should see him through against the rest of the field and then there will be a battle royale for the final seat.They shouldn't need to transfer at all. Upton will probably be on about a quota, and the other 2 should be 10-15% each on current polls, so their transfer rate shouldn't even arise. What they need is for that to put both of them ahead of SF/PBP, and then a decent transfer to both from them to stay ahead of FF1. pretty hard, even with the wind behind them, but far from impossible if FF collapse as much as is predicted.