Dublin West in General Election 2018/2019

DJP

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It's unlikely I think that there will be an election before the budget but most Fianna Fáil TD's and Senators have said that they are not in favour of renewing the party's confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael after this budget so it seems to me (and I could be wrong about this if you look at the polls) like only a matter of a few short months (or maybe even weeks) after the budget before the Government collapses and an election is called.

In Dublin West the only candidates that can be sure of standing are:

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar
Jack Chambers TD
Ruth Coppinger TD
Roderic O'Gorman GP

Will:
David McGuinness Ind
Joan Burton TD
Paul Donnelly SF
David Hall Ind

stand?

There will also be a half a dozen or so other candidates standing but the above are the only well known candidates who will or might stand that are or would be in with good or decent chances of getting elected or reelected.

As of today it looks like three of the sitting four TD's will get reelected- Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Jack Chambers TD and Ruth Coppinger TD.

Joan Burton said around a year or more ago that she will be seeking reelection but I have to see her totally confirmed as a candidate over the next while (few months at most) to believe she is going to stand.

As of today this is the biggest question I can think of in relation to the next general election in this constituency in terms of who the candidates are: will Joan Burton stand? If she doesn't Paul Donnelly of Sinn Féin would be a lot more comfortable for a seat mainly because the other "new" Labour GE candidate would probably not be as well known in the constituency as Joan Burton.

The next biggest question in relation to the next general election in this constituency in terms of who is standing is: will David McGuinness be standing again?

I also propose debating on this thread the value in there being an election this year or in 2019 especially with the polls currently and for a long time showing that the result of it numerically in terms of Government would be a reelection of Fine Gael into Government with I think probable Fianna Fáil support, again. There will also be Council and European Elections in May of 2019. Do the parties want a General Election so close to the next LE's and EE's? Micheál Martin has said that he does not put a lot of value or weight on opinion polls so it will be somewhat interesting to see if he and his party is prepared to collapse the Government before the end of the year even if their party is not coming in first in the polls and the polls predict that they will come in a distant second or third!

There will no doubt as with most threads on this site be a lot of internet graffiti on this thread but I hope that posters can keep that to a minimum and use this thread for more considered posting in relation to the next general election. If I thought that there was not going to be a General Election before May 2019 I wouldn't start this thread but I think there will be.
 
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Supra

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I expect Burton to stand again, there is no reason for her to claim otherwise at this stage. If there was another potential LB candidate I think they would have started profiling by now. I haven't noticed any.
 

hammer

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Joan will stand.

Maybe FF with the extra confidence will take McGuinness back under their wing.

He was shafted.
 

Catalpast

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If JB runs then you are probably looking at the same line out next time too

PD will have a battle on his hands to grab one of these seats

- and Joan's is the only one he has a chance of taking....

It will be his last chance too because Party HQ wont give him another one....
 

Catalpast

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I thought Paul Donnelly was asked to stand aside for some other female Shinner ?
Cllr NATALIE TREACY (RONAN) was born and reared in the Mountview area of Dublin 15. She went to school locally in Blakestown Community College. She is currently living in Huntstown with her husband Wayne and two children, Bronagh and Saoirse. Natalie is a Representative on the Safer Blanchardstown Policing Forum and is a sponsor of Mountview Boys and Girls Football Club. Natalie currently works full-time in Sinn Féins’ constituency office in Corduff.
About - Sinn Féin | Dublin West

Yes she would definitely be one to watch

But SF shafting poor aul Paulie would look terrible

Who knows FF did it so it may just happen

Doubt it though
 

Supra

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I don't think McGuinness will run. Elections are expensive and the anger at being shafted has probably calmed.
 

hammer

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I don't think McGuinness will run. Elections are expensive and the anger at being shafted has probably calmed.
I think he will. He has a lot of support in certain areas.

If he could just beat Copyourselfon I would give him #1 :)
 

Supra

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I think he will. He has a lot of support in certain areas.

If he could just beat Copyourselfon I would give him #1 :)
If he does and Hall runs too, we will have 3 gene pool candidates again.
 

Hitchcock

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Varadkar as Taoiseach will be under pressure to bring in a running mate - I assume given her elevated profile and certainly if the Repeal referendum is passed it will be Senator Catherine Noone unless she heads off to DSW as has been speculated. I'd give her a reasonable chance of winning.

Chambers should win - he's busy on the ground without setting the world alight nationally but his new portfolio might aid him.

Coppinger should win - she has a highish profile.

Burton will stand and she seems to have stepped back a little nationally and is more busy in the constituency. It could be argued given she held on in the teeth of the virtual wipe out of Labour in 2016 that she will hold on but it does depend on a move behind FG and if the Shinners either get a boost from MLMD or change candidate.

It's difficult to see what would push SF over the line this time - MLMD might give him a boost she once stood in a general election in DW but along time ago. I think if they were sensible they'd stand someone like Lynn Boylan in DW she could challenge Burton/Coppinger and a second FG seat.
 

Hitchcock

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I think he will. He has a lot of support in certain areas.

If he could just beat Copyourselfon I would give him #1 :)
What ever about RC losing her seat it won't be to David McGuinness...his day has passed.
 

O'Quisling

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I think he will. He has a lot of support in certain areas.

If he could just beat Copyourselfon I would give him #1 :)
In your dreams Blueshirt boy !

The Millies have cultivated a support base in the Greater Blanch area precisely because of ignored deprivation by FF-FG governments over decades.

In the late 90's the Millies took over the Leftwing vote present in the constituency seen for decades and made it their own.

That self-conscious left-wing vote can be seen with the Stickies successfully returning Tom Gill as a TD right up to the (near) destruction of that party with Rabbite et al surrendering, and Joan Burton selling herself as a principled Labour candidate (being deputy leader of the Labour Left faction calling for ruling out coalitions with FG).

Good luck for Provisional Sinn Fein to successfully appropriate that support base this side of 2030.

My prediction is a return of the incumbents.
 

Mick Mac

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Varadkar as Taoiseach will be under pressure to bring in a running mate - I assume given her elevated profile and certainly if the Repeal referendum is passed it will be Senator Catherine Noone unless she heads off to DSW as has been speculated. I'd give her a reasonable chance of winning.

Chambers should win - he's busy on the ground without setting the world alight nationally but his new portfolio might aid him.

Coppinger should win - she has a highish profile.

Burton will stand and she seems to have stepped back a little nationally and is more busy in the constituency. It could be argued given she held on in the teeth of the virtual wipe out of Labour in 2016 that she will hold on but it does depend on a move behind FG and if the Shinners either get a boost from MLMD or change candidate.

It's difficult to see what would push SF over the line this time - MLMD might give him a boost she once stood in a general election in DW but along time ago. I think if they were sensible they'd stand someone like Lynn Boylan in DW she could challenge Burton/Coppinger and a second FG seat.
Lynn of the poor judgement.

She could win though.
 

PO'Neill

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Varadkar as Taoiseach will be under pressure to bring in a running mate - I assume given her elevated profile and certainly if the Repeal referendum is passed it will be Senator Catherine Noone unless she heads off to DSW as has been speculated. I'd give her a reasonable chance of winning.

Chambers should win - he's busy on the ground without setting the world alight nationally but his new portfolio might aid him.

Coppinger should win - she has a highish profile.

Burton will stand and she seems to have stepped back a little nationally and is more busy in the constituency. It could be argued given she held on in the teeth of the virtual wipe out of Labour in 2016 that she will hold on but it does depend on a move behind FG and if the Shinners either get a boost from MLMD or change candidate.

It's difficult to see what would push SF over the line this time - MLMD might give him a boost she once stood in a general election in DW but along time ago. I think if they were sensible they'd stand someone like Lynn Boylan in DW she could challenge Burton/Coppinger and a second FG seat.
The second 'shirt Noone only got 1,125 first prefs eliminated on the second count, doubtful if any other shirt would be much better. If Burton wasn't kicked out last time she should hold on though her profile is much reduced which wouldn't obviously help her. Coppinger has indeed a high profile, but the Trots undermined SF's Donnelly by stating in leaflets and on the doorstep that he was as good as elected and a vote for him was a wasted one. It hasn't gone down well in the area and SF as a party are sore about it. Donnelly has in football terms hit the bar twice now, SF with their huge party resources, canvassers coming down from the north etc may well put an even bigger effort into the area than before. I won't be running down to the bookies to put money on Donnelly, and likewise Coppinger or Burton either.

Dublin West 2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_West_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)#2016_general_election
 

Supra

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The second 'shirt Noone only got 1,125 first prefs eliminated on the second count, doubtful if any other shirt would be much better. If Burton wasn't kicked out last time she should hold on though her profile is much reduced which wouldn't obviously help her. Coppinger has indeed a high profile, but the Trots undermined SF's Donnelly by stating in leaflets and on the doorstep that he was as good as elected and a vote for him was a wasted one. It hasn't gone down well in the area and SF as a party are sore about it. Donnelly has in football terms hit the bar twice now, SF with their huge party resources, canvassers coming down from the north etc may well put an even bigger effort into the area than before. I won't be running down to the bookies to put money on Donnelly, and likewise Coppinger or Burton either.

Dublin West 2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_West_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)#2016_general_election
If it's a 3 way between these history would suggest it's really a two way.
 

PO'Neill

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I think he will. He has a lot of support in certain areas.

If he could just beat Copyourselfon I would give him #1 :)
McGuinness only got 2,991 first prefs and 3,405 with transfers including blueshirt Noone. Not a hope will he get elected. Has the totally lack of integrity of a true Fianna Gaeler or Fine Failer which would appeal to you of course.

FF wants defector David McGuinness to pay party back €17,400
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/ff-wants-defector-david-mcguinness-to-pay-party-back-17400-31131595.html
 

Manstein

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I thought Paul Donnelly was asked to stand aside for some other female Shinner ?
Convention for next election in Dublin West already held and Donnelly was selected.

If Donnelly cannot get elected in a consituency next door to Mary Lou's then there will have been a zero bounce to Sinn Fein from a new leader.

Cant see Donnelly not taking a seat.

Coppinger not safe at all.
 

the secretary

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The poster Itssoso used to post on this site and was Donnellys biggest supporter.
The poster had told us all that Donnelly was a dead cert at the last election and was 100% sure to get elected.

I haven't seen them on the site since! Oh well.....
 

Catalpast

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The poster Itssoso used to post on this site and was Donnellys biggest supporter.
The poster had told us all that Donnelly was a dead cert at the last election and was 100% sure to get elected.

I haven't seen them on the site since! Oh well.....
Oh boy that was fun!:p

- what conceited P.irck he was too...
 


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