Dublin West in General Election 2018/2019

DJP

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I expect Burton to stand again, there is no reason for her to claim otherwise at this stage. If there was another potential LB candidate I think they would have started profiling by now. I haven't noticed any.
Their councillor in Mulhuddart Mary McCalmey is the current Mayor of Fingal.

The poster Itssoso used to post on this site and was Donnellys biggest supporter.
The poster had told us all that Donnelly was a dead cert at the last election and was 100% sure to get elected.

I haven't seen them on the site since! Oh well.....
I agree that Itsoso is a huge PD supporter, which is not surprising given that he is his brother (he also used the name Captain Black on Twitter).
 


Plebian

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Varadkar as Taoiseach will be under pressure to bring in a running mate - I assume given her elevated profile and certainly if the Repeal referendum is passed it will be Senator Catherine Noone unless she heads off to DSW as has been speculated. I'd give her a reasonable chance of winning.

Chambers should win - he's busy on the ground without setting the world alight nationally but his new portfolio might aid him.

Coppinger should win - she has a highish profile.

Burton will stand and she seems to have stepped back a little nationally and is more busy in the constituency. It could be argued given she held on in the teeth of the virtual wipe out of Labour in 2016 that she will hold on but it does depend on a move behind FG and if the Shinners either get a boost from MLMD or change candidate.

It's difficult to see what would push SF over the line this time - MLMD might give him a boost she once stood in a general election in DW but along time ago. I think if they were sensible they'd stand someone like Lynn Boylan in DW she could challenge Burton/Coppinger and a second FG seat.
Voters are a strange lot, local factors and sympathies are key to vote winning even more than National factors may be. Donnelly is quite likely to pick up a nice sympathy bonus of " we thought poor old Paul was safe last time but we won't forget him this time"

Coppinger in 2016 would likely have received a fair few votes on the basis of people paying their respect to the much more populàr retiring Joe Higgins by voting Coppinger in to keep Joe's seat.

Chambers flew in on the family name.


In 2016 Dublin-West went this way.

Party Candidate % 1st Pref Count 1 Count 2 Count 3 Count 4 Count 5

Fine Gael Leo Varadkar 19.7 8,247 8,328 9,021

AAA–PBP Ruth Coppinger 15.5 6,520 6,626 6,690 7,011 8,548

Fianna Fáil Jack Chambers 16.5 6,917 7,148 7,236 7,330 8,315

Labour Party Joan Burton 15.4 6,445 6,508 6,668 6,769 8,009

Sinn Féin Paul Donnelly 14.4 6,034 6,073 6,093 6,188 7,091

Independent David McGuinness 7.1 2,991 3,081 3,112 3,405

Green Party Roderic O'Gorman 4.1 1,730 1,839 1,864 2,098

Independent T J Clare 2.6 1,092 1,191 1,214

Fine Gael Catherine Noone 2.6 1,074 1,125

Renua Jo O'Brien 1.6 677

Independent Dermot Casey 0.5 225


FG Leo is safe, FF Chambers is very likely to be safe, basically they have the 2 Castleknock seats taken leaving the other end of the Constituency as a dog fight between Coppinger, Burton and Donnelly.

It's quite hard to call between the three.

Even though the middle-class vote should be relatively higher this time than in 2016 and Labour will be less toxic this time. Burton just mightn't try very hard this time to keep her seat. She's gone from her high profile role as leader of Labour and Tanaiste to being an obscure back bencher .

Donnelly has roughly 1,000 votes or transfers to make up on 2016 to take a seat. Although that 1,000 deficit can be overcome by taking a 500 vote swing from one of his competitors.

Coppinger had ideal conditions in 2016, SF had taken a beating as the SP rode the water-charges protest vote and she was replacing the well respected Joe Higgins. It should be tougher for her this time but her party has a very solid campaigning history in this constituency and they do get the vote out.
 

DJP

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The only safe candidates to me look like: Leo Varadkar and Jack Chambers. There will be a battle royale amongst Ruth Coppinger, Paul Donnelly and (if she stands) Joan Burton for the other two seats. If David McGuinness stands it will be troublesome for RC and PD and if David Hall doesn't stand it will be moreso.
 

The Rahenyite

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Micheál Martin has said that he does not put a lot of value or weight on opinion polls so it will be somewhat interesting to see if he and his party is prepared to collapse the Government before the end of the year even if their party is not coming in first in the polls and the polls predict that they will come in a distant second or third!
FF definitely won't finish third. Sure SF are 4 points off them in the latest poll but SF's support is exaggerated by 8-10 points in opinion polls due to their high support amongst the 18-25 category who aren't the best at turning out.
 

Paddy{ie

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I expect Burton to stand again, there is no reason for her to claim otherwise at this stage. If there was another potential LB candidate I think they would have started profiling by now. I haven't noticed any.
She might sit rather than stand. Arrive by canoe or something.
 

DJP

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PO'Neill

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SF are getting some good news from the polls but I don't see them getting 21% or 22% in the last poll, no way will they jump that much ( and the same with the figures for FG and FF). SF hit the bar in 5 or 6 constituencies in the last generals such as Dublin West, Westmeath Longford, Donegal etc losing by close margins. I expect to see SF hold all their current seats except for Carole Nolan in Laois, but a one or two percent increase would see SF gain 5 or 6 seats putting them in the high 20's. So if SF get a 1% or 2% increase with Mary Lou now as leader, that should carry Donnelly in with Burton and Coppinger to fight it out. In such a situation I'd expect Coppinger to win it and another huge blow to Labour as it heads to political dinosaur land.
 

DJP

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In such a situation I'd expect Coppinger to win it and another huge blow to Labour as it heads to political dinosaur land.
For all the bile the SP-Solidarity poured on Labour in the last Dáil and GE Labour still got more seats and 55,000 more votes than SP-Solidarity/PBP combined. I have no sympathy for most Labour politicians losing their seats but I have even less sympathy for SP candidates like RC losing theirs. I have an inclination to think that the SP-Solidarity/PBP vote will not hold up in the longer term so long as the economy is going ok or well. I don't know for sure if I expect that to be shown in the next general election although I wouldn't be surprised if it did. Look at the SP in England!
 

Catalpast

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SF are getting some good news from the polls but I don't see them getting 21% or 22% in the last poll, no way will they jump that much ( and the same with the figures for FG and FF). SF hit the bar in 5 or 6 constituencies in the last generals such as Dublin West, Westmeath Longford, Donegal etc losing by close margins. I expect to see SF hold all their current seats except for Carole Nolan in Laois, but a one or two percent increase would see SF gain 5 or 6 seats putting them in the high 20's. So if SF get a 1% or 2% increase with Mary Lou now as leader, that should carry Donnelly in with Burton and Coppinger to fight it out. In such a situation I'd expect Coppinger to win it and another huge blow to Labour as it heads to political dinosaur land.
Not a bad prediction

- they will go all out to burn the Wicked Witch of the West....:p
 

Catalpast

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For all the bile the SP-Solidarity poured on Labour in the last Dáil and GE Labour still got more seats and 55,000 more votes than SP-Solidarity/PBP combined. I have no sympathy for most Labour politicians losing their seats but I have even less sympathy for SP candidates like RC losing theirs. I have an inclination to think that the SP-Solidarity/PBP vote will not hold up in the longer term so long as the economy is going ok or well. I don't know for sure if I expect that to be shown in the next general election although I wouldn't be surprised if it did. Look at the SP in England!
Yes Blanch is Booming and Austerity is not what it used to be....

SF are going to pull out all the stops to get Donnelly into the Dail

- and they see Ruth as the most likely candidate to stop it.

JB personal vote could hold up

- or it could take a dip

But to whom would it go....?
 

DJP

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PO'Neill

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For all the bile the SP-Solidarity poured on Labour in the last Dáil and GE Labour still got more seats and 55,000 more votes than SP-Solidarity/PBP combined. I have no sympathy for most Labour politicians losing their seats but I have even less sympathy for SP candidates like RC losing theirs. I have an inclination to think that the SP-Solidarity/PBP vote will not hold up in the longer term so long as the economy is going ok or well. I don't know for sure if I expect that to be shown in the next general election although I wouldn't be surprised if it did. Look at the SP in England!
I'm not a fan of the Trots, but in fairness they have a strong presence in working class areas, their activists and councilors are hard working on local issues. Nationally the Trots are going nowhere but should hold onto their 6 Dail seats. John Lyons (7,668 after transfers) of PBP in Dublin Bay North might swing it if the other Trots Sol's Michael O'Brien (2,562 after transfers) doesn't also stand.
 

PO'Neill

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Catalpast

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If McGuiness doesn't stand then Chambers will romp home

- as will Varadkar

That leaves a bit of a Cat & Dog Fight for the last 2 seats....
 

the secretary

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If she is going to run then they will only run her where she is a dead cert to be elected.
 

Supra

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i see Burton has personal posters up n Clonsilla.
She's running (in the election I mean).
 

DJP

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i see Burton has personal posters up n Clonsilla.
She's running (in the election I mean).
Yeah she probably has the energy and determination for another go at the Dáil.
 
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