I agree, I think Coppinger is most at risk here. She has a high public profile, but support for Independents and small parties is down since the last election, while SF are probably up a couple of points. And it only needs a swing of a few hundred votes for those two to swap places in the first count, after which they're about equal in terms being transfer-friendly/repellent. I think Burton will make it, as FG will be up substantially with Varadkar as Taoiseach, though not enough to win two seats, meaning there'll be a tidy parcel of FG votes looking for a home in later counts. FF have one and will hold it.Convention for next election in Dublin West already held and Donnelly was selected.
If Donnelly cannot get elected in a consituency next door to Mary Lou's then there will have been a zero bounce to Sinn Fein from a new leader.
Cant see Donnelly not taking a seat.
Coppinger not safe at all.
What votes do you think will ultimately elect Coppinger?SF are getting some good news from the polls but I don't see them getting 21% or 22% in the last poll, no way will they jump that much ( and the same with the figures for FG and FF). SF hit the bar in 5 or 6 constituencies in the last generals such as Dublin West, Westmeath Longford, Donegal etc losing by close margins. I expect to see SF hold all their current seats except for Carole Nolan in Laois, but a one or two percent increase would see SF gain 5 or 6 seats putting them in the high 20's. So if SF get a 1% or 2% increase with Mary Lou now as leader, that should carry Donnelly in with Burton and Coppinger to fight it out. In such a situation I'd expect Coppinger to win it and another huge blow to Labour as it heads to political dinosaur land.
Will a vote for poor SF next election be another wasted vote?Tomorrow's opinion poll in The SBP casts doubt on whether SF are really in line to grow at the next general election- they are at 14% in it which is approximately what they got in the last general election. I don't recall any predictions that they would get squeezed in 2007 and they did. It will be very interesting to see the trend of the opinions polls over the course of the rest of the year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_West_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)#2016_general_electionIndeed based on the last election and opinion polls she won't be getting a lot of transfers compared to Leo Varadkar, Jack Chambers and Joan Burton I think.
He missed the elephant in the room. An ejection won't necessarily be precipitated by FF pulling the plug. FF need SF on side. They've shown no signs of being ready to pull down the government for the craic.Conor McMorrow has some very good insights on the factors of when the next GE may be in a new article on the RTÉ website:
Martin hasn't the balls to end the regime of the Punjab Princess and it will cost him.I'd be surprised if there is not a GE in or before February of next year and I'd expect it to be called by the end of the year for probably early next year. That's if Micheál Martin doesn't have a reason to collapse the Government before then.
Yeah, Labour have no choice but to run Burton as they can't afford another lost seat, I do wonder though if Joan would like to retire at this point but has to keep going like a zombie just to keep up appearances.Fine, but if she was running it'd be her public meeting about the referendum, not Burton's.