Dublin West in General Election 2018/2019



hiding behind a poster

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Convention for next election in Dublin West already held and Donnelly was selected.

If Donnelly cannot get elected in a consituency next door to Mary Lou's then there will have been a zero bounce to Sinn Fein from a new leader.

Cant see Donnelly not taking a seat.

Coppinger not safe at all.
I agree, I think Coppinger is most at risk here. She has a high public profile, but support for Independents and small parties is down since the last election, while SF are probably up a couple of points. And it only needs a swing of a few hundred votes for those two to swap places in the first count, after which they're about equal in terms being transfer-friendly/repellent. I think Burton will make it, as FG will be up substantially with Varadkar as Taoiseach, though not enough to win two seats, meaning there'll be a tidy parcel of FG votes looking for a home in later counts. FF have one and will hold it.
 

hiding behind a poster

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He's been knocking about a few years now I think.

Here is Adrian Kavanagh's prediction of the numbers in the next GE going on the figures in the last IT poll:

As usual, he's completely divorced from reality.
 

hiding behind a poster

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SF are getting some good news from the polls but I don't see them getting 21% or 22% in the last poll, no way will they jump that much ( and the same with the figures for FG and FF). SF hit the bar in 5 or 6 constituencies in the last generals such as Dublin West, Westmeath Longford, Donegal etc losing by close margins. I expect to see SF hold all their current seats except for Carole Nolan in Laois, but a one or two percent increase would see SF gain 5 or 6 seats putting them in the high 20's. So if SF get a 1% or 2% increase with Mary Lou now as leader, that should carry Donnelly in with Burton and Coppinger to fight it out. In such a situation I'd expect Coppinger to win it and another huge blow to Labour as it heads to political dinosaur land.
What votes do you think will ultimately elect Coppinger?
 

DJP

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Tomorrow's opinion poll in The SBP casts doubt on whether SF are really in line to grow at the next general election- they are at 14% in it which is approximately what they got in the last general election. I don't recall any predictions that they would get squeezed in 2007 and they did. It will be very interesting to see the trend of the opinions polls over the course of the rest of the year.
 

DJP

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What votes do you think will ultimately elect Coppinger?
Indeed based on the last election and opinion polls she won't be getting a lot of transfers compared to Leo Varadkar, Jack Chambers and Joan Burton I think.
 

SuirView

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Tomorrow's opinion poll in The SBP casts doubt on whether SF are really in line to grow at the next general election- they are at 14% in it which is approximately what they got in the last general election. I don't recall any predictions that they would get squeezed in 2007 and they did. It will be very interesting to see the trend of the opinions polls over the course of the rest of the year.
Will a vote for poor SF next election be another wasted vote?
Time will tell.
 

jackryan

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He admits it is just to give a rough estimate of overall seat tallies and will not be accurate in each individual constituency.
What are your predictions in terms of seat numbers then ?
He always admits it he just puts in the figures!
 

DJP

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Actually in the last election RC did ok on transfers until the fifth count until she got elected. Paul Donnelly only got half the transfers she got. I think she got a lot of transfers off David McGuinness and/or Roderic O'Gorman. Anyway she has a battle on her hands to hold her seat.

What votes do you think will ultimately elect Coppinger?
Indeed based on the last election and opinion polls she won't be getting a lot of transfers compared to Leo Varadkar, Jack Chambers and Joan Burton I think.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin_West_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)#2016_general_election
 

DJP

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DJP

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They've shown no signs of being ready to pull down the government for the craic.
Aka they're all looking out at the opinion polls. :)
 

DJP

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I'd be surprised if there is not a GE in or before February of next year and I'd expect it to be called by the end of the year for probably early next year. That's if Micheál Martin doesn't have a reason to collapse the Government before then.
 

Herr Rommel

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I'd be surprised if there is not a GE in or before February of next year and I'd expect it to be called by the end of the year for probably early next year. That's if Micheál Martin doesn't have a reason to collapse the Government before then.
Martin hasn't the balls to end the regime of the Punjab Princess and it will cost him.
 

DJP

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David McGuinness isn't giving the impression that he is going to stand in the next GE. I don't recall getting a single newsletter or leaflet in the door from him since the last GE. It will be somewhat interesting to find out for sure though because he will influence the next GE out this way whether he stands or not. If he does stand I doubt he will have a great chance of increasing a lot on the last vote he got. If he doesn't stand it will be sigh of relief to RC and PD especially and also somewhat to Joan Burton I think.
 
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Degeneration X

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Fine, but if she was running it'd be her public meeting about the referendum, not Burton's.
Yeah, Labour have no choice but to run Burton as they can't afford another lost seat, I do wonder though if Joan would like to retire at this point but has to keep going like a zombie just to keep up appearances.
 


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