Dublin West.

Blanchinner

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A bitter controversy erupted within FG in Dublin West at the time of the Locals as KD thought he was being shunted sideways and went for the jugular

- it paid off as he came home near tops - 1,649 vote while Mr Adeola was an 'also ran'!:)

This is from my post here from that torrid time:(4 June 2009)

'Kieran Dennison states the following in this weeks Blanchgazette as Civil War rocks FGs Dublin West Branch

It is alleged by other candidates that Adeola Ogunsina, FGs candidate from Nigeria, has been making promises that he can secure Passports for Immigrants within 6 months if they vote for him and FG are in Government.

This alleged ‘Passports for Votes’ Scandal has provoked the FG candidate from Ireland to let rip…

I was not informed of the meetings, and I have been finding it difficult to establish how many meetings there were, and what exactly was said.

With so many people losing their jobs, and worrying about getting work for their children, immigration is a big issue on the doorsteps...

there is increasing resentment at new arrivals who must be supported by an ever increasing Welfare System.


...Now that someone at last and finally has come out in public and admitted what the dogs in the street in Blanchardstown know I reckon I will give him my NO 1 tomorrow to try and stop Adeola taking a Council Seat.'

Results:

* Ruth Coppinger 1,705 12.86% 0.77 4 Made Quota 1
Kieran Dennison 1,649 12.44% 0.75 7 Made Quota 2
Patrick Nulty 1,898 14.32% 0.86 7 Elected 3
David McGuinness 1,203 9.08% 0.54 7 Elected 4
* Michael O'Donovan 1,696 12.80% 0.77 7 Elected 5
* Paul Donnelly 1,517 11.44% 0.69 (7) Not Elected
Adeola Ogunsina 965 7.28% 0.44 (6) Eliminated
Niamh Moran 723 5.45% 0.33 (5) Eliminated
Denis Keane 642 4.84% 0.29 (4) Eliminated
Idowu Sulyman Olafimihan 611 4.61% 0.28 (3) Eliminated
Iggy Okafor 464 3.50% 0.21 (2) No expenses
Maria McGrail 182 1.37% 0.08 (1) No expenses

ElectionsIreland.org: 2009 Local - Mulhuddart First Preference Votes
No surprise there then, Fine Gael councillor makes overtly racist comments. This same gob************************e actually called on the RAF to be asked to protect Irish air space, during a no to lisbon debate. Oh and we have'nt gone away ye know, kieran, !!
 


bored and fussy

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will joan burton get a seat i dont think she will be able for a full term, she looks tired and emotional sometimes, i think it is time for younger canditates in all parties
 

DJP

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Ruairí Quinn said last night on The Week In Politics that Labour have a good chance of a second seat here. I suppose they would have if FG are on 24% and they are in the mid 30's. I think they are on 50% in Dublin aren't they and FG and FF are on 15%?

Brian Lenihan like a lot of FF politicians gets a huge personal vote and will get reelected presuming he is O.K which we all hope he will be.

I think that Kieran Dennison will poll well in Mulhuddart.

On balance I think the three TD's will get reelected and that Higgins will get the fourth seat. If Labour are doing that well in Dublin though they could pull in a second putting out Higgins (on the left) and on a very bad day nationally for FG like 2002 (the comparison has been drawn after the last OP) Leo Varadkar. Again though on balance I would be surprised to see this happening.
 

Catalpa

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Ruairí Quinn said last night on The Week In Politics that Labour have a good chance of a second seat here. I suppose they would have if FG are on 24% and they are in the mid 30's. I think they are on 50% in Dublin aren't they and FG and FF are on 15%?

Brian Lenihan like a lot of FF politicians gets a huge personal vote and will get reelected presuming he is O.K which we all hope he will be.

I think that Kieran Dennison will poll well in Mulhuddart.

On balance I think the three TD's will get reelected and that Higgins will get the fourth seat. If Labour are doing that well in Dublin though they could pull in a second putting out Higgins (on the left) and on a very bad day nationally for FG like 2002 (the comparison has been drawn after the last OP) Leo Varadkar. Again though on balance I would be surprised to see this happening.
We won't know how it could pan out until we find out if Brian Lenihan will throw his hat in the ring - or call it a day....
 

jayblue

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Any word on the dates for the selection convention.

Who will not get the cabinet seat after the elections Leo or Joan, Dublin West is to small for two senior positions.
 

Catalpa

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Any word on the dates for the selection convention.

Who will not get the cabinet seat after the elections Leo or Joan, Dublin West is to small for two senior positions.
Interesting point!

I would imagine Joan would get Finance and Leo will get Social Welfare.

Splitting hairs over 2 Ministers from 1 Constituency is truly pedantic given The Coming Storm we are heading into.....:-(
 

dotski_w_

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Interesting point!

I would imagine Joan would get Finance and Leo will get Social Welfare.

Splitting hairs over 2 Ministers from 1 Constituency is truly pedantic given The Coming Storm we are heading into.....:-(
hmmmm .... can't see Leo getting the Social Protection gig, tbh .... something like Enterprise if he's in with the FG leader (whoever that may be) - if not, he'll be touch and go to make the cabinet

agree though that the geography of Ministers shouldn't be a criterion in the current circumstances
 

DJP

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John Drennan in The Sindo today has LB getting two seats here. 2 LB 1 FF 1 FG. Labour are on about 50% in the polls in Dublin and they have taken most of that increased support off FF. However can it be expected that Brian Lenihan will lose anyway near half his votes? Judging by the result Higgins got in the last LE you would think that he would get elected. Patrick Nulty would hardly get many votes in Caslteknock also.
 

Keith-M

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John Drennan in The Sindo today has LB getting two seats here. 2 LB 1 FF 1 FG. Labour are on about 50% in the polls in Dublin and they have taken most of that increased support off FF. However can it be expected that Brian Lenihan will lose anyway near half his votes? Judging by the result Higgins got in the last LE you would think that he would get elected. Patrick Nulty would hardly get many votes in Caslteknock also.

It's 1 for FF, 1 for FG and 1 for Labour, then it's wide open. As of now I think Higgins' higher profile might just see him through.
 

DJP

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He has been living in the area for I think 30 years. He has a much higher profile. He got something like 5,000 votes in Castleknock in the last LE. He got the most votes in the big estate of Laurel Lodge in Castleknock. He could get between 7,000-8,000 votes. We don't know how Brian Lenihan is going to fare though. Will he lose many votes, and who will they go to if so? I would say that few of them would go to Higgins so Labour may be the biggest benefactors. John Drennan's prediction today will help ensure that the SP are not complacent about the seat. They were extremely confident that he would get back in in 2007 on politics.ie anyway. One huge thing about Higgins that most people out of Dublin West don't know is that he doesn't do a lot of work on the ground in the constituency work compared to the other politicians and most other candidates. The other TD's will support residents groups from across the constituency and the like. Higgins I suppose would do this in Mulhuddart but I don't think he has many if any friends on these committees throughout the rest of the constituency. His vote went down i 2007 significantly in Mulhuddart where he is from. I would say that the vast majority of public service workers will be voting for Labour this time so Higgins could be in trouble. I think overall that he will still get in though but the run-up to the GE and the campaign will be nervous for the SP in the constituency.
 

making waves

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Up until the last few days of the 2007 election Joe Higgins was potentially ahead of Joan Burton. The squeeze to FF in working class areas in the last week did impact on the vote of Joe Higgins (and Clare Daly) as it did with others (like SF).

However, in order for the LP to win two seats ahead of Joe Higgins would require Joe Higgins to lose more votes and the LP increase their vote by 2.5 times in the constituency. The LP could potentially double their vote in many Dublin constituencies - but will have trouble doing that where ever the is a strong established left-wing candidate.

Many people switched from Joe Higgins in the closing days of 2007 election on the assumption that he was safe and have repeatedly indicated that they regret their decision. Furthermore, Joe Higgins will benefit more than any other candidate from the Rivervalley vote in Swords (where Clare Daly has repeatedly won a substantial vote). I also disagree with your assessment about where the slippage in Lenihans vote would go - Joe Higgins picked up about 8% of Lenihans surplus transfer last time out (compared to 10% for Varadker and 12% for Burton) but, more importantly, picked up as much of Gerry Lynam's vote as Varadker or Burton and significantly more of the SF vote.

The Socialist Party is never complacent about any election and acts accordingly - elections are nothing if not unpredictable. However, it would be a major surprise if Joe Higgins was not elected in Dublin West. If he gets the 7,000-8,000 you mention above he will be elected comfortably. The LP could win two seats in the constituency - but of they do it will be Lenihan's seat they take.
 

jackryan

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MEPs don't have a great history of winning Dail seats so it wouldn't suprise me if Higgins Struggled! Also I think Lenihan is far from safe sympathy doesn't always win seats The Late Jim Mitchel is proof of that! He probably will be more transfer friendly than most FFers but if the tide is out it isn't fussy who gets carried with it!!
 

Catalpa

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John Drennan in The Sindo today has LB getting two seats here. 2 LB 1 FF 1 FG. Labour are on about 50% in the polls in Dublin and they have taken most of that increased support off FF. However can it be expected that Brian Lenihan will lose anyway near half his votes? Judging by the result Higgins got in the last LE you would think that he would get elected. Patrick Nulty would hardly get many votes in Caslteknock also.
There is only a seat for FF if Lenihan runs and even then his vote will be well down.

With Uncle Joe throwing his hat in the ring its hard to see Labour coming home on the double in DW if Lenihan is running too.

If he doesn't then most likely scenario is:

1. Leo Varadkar

2. Joan Burton

3. Joe Higgins

- & a Battle Royal for the last seat between Nulty and Dennison.
 

Catalpa

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He has been living in the area for I think 30 years. He has a much higher profile. He got something like 5,000 votes in Castleknock in the last LE. He got the most votes in the big estate of Laurel Lodge in Castleknock. He could get between 7,000-8,000 votes. We don't know how Brian Lenihan is going to fare though. Will he lose many votes, and who will they go to if so? I would say that few of them would go to Higgins so Labour may be the biggest benefactors. John Drennan's prediction today will help ensure that the SP are not complacent about the seat. They were extremely confident that he would get back in in 2007 on politics.ie anyway. One huge thing about Higgins that most people out of Dublin West don't know is that he doesn't do a lot of work on the ground in the constituency work compared to the other politicians and most other candidates. The other TD's will support residents groups from across the constituency and the like. Higgins I suppose would do this in Mulhuddart but I don't think he has many if any friends on these committees throughout the rest of the constituency. His vote went down i 2007 significantly in Mulhuddart where he is from. I would say that the vast majority of public service workers will be voting for Labour this time so Higgins could be in trouble. I think overall that he will still get in though but the run-up to the GE and the campaign will be nervous for the SP in the constituency.
They were extremely confident that he would get back in in 2007 on politics.ie anyway.

I said in 2006 he would lose his seat - and he did!

I Said why too.
 

Catalpa

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MEPs don't have a great history of winning Dail seats so it wouldn't suprise me if Higgins Struggled! Also I think Lenihan is far from safe sympathy doesn't always win seats The Late Jim Mitchel is proof of that! He probably will be more transfer friendly than most FFers but if the tide is out it isn't fussy who gets carried with it!!
It happened to his Dad back in '73 - that's why he moved to DW!
 

making waves

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They were extremely confident that he would get back in in 2007 on politics.ie anyway.

I said in 2006 he would lose his seat - and he did!

I Said why too.
Yes, Socialist Party members were confident that Joe Higgins would be re-elected - at least up to a week before the election. It was clear that slippage was occurring in the last week as FF gained some working class votes on the basis of 'the devil you know'.

But you most definitely are wrong about the reason. Immigration was not an issue in the election - it was hardly ever mentioned by anyone on the doors. And you repeat this nonsense that Joe Higgins 'supports mass immigration'.

Right-wing FFers and FGers try to whip up immigration as an issue - yet have only limited success. Despite Dennison attempting to make it an issue in the last locals he still didn't top the poll - in fact he came fourth behind a Socailist Party candidate and two LP candidates (all of whom you would class as 'supporters of mass immigration).

Will Joe Higgins re-gain his seat at the next election - I certainly hope so and I would be reasonably confident he will. He deserves to do it simply because he will be the only candidate to oppose the 'cuts' agenda. And whether you like it or not - booting all the immigrants out of the country would have little or no impact on the political and economic situation that exists. It would be making one group of people scapegoats for a problem they didn't cause and would let those that did cause the problem off the hook (and they would be laughing their faces off at your gullibility).
 

jayblue

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Yes I did enjoy that John Drennan profile at the weekend. Ok I think we are all accepting that if Brian Lenihan is not running then there is no FF seat in Dublin West, but the latest that I heard is that he is running.

I predict that first seat will go to Joan, then Brian, and the last two seats are between second Labour, John Higgins and Leo Vadarkar.

I know most poster on here will disagree with me on this, but the young doctor is not as loved as much as he thinks out in Dublin West. At times I would compare him to Michael McDowell, who was loved by the pd membership but not the voters, I believe it is the same for Leo with the FG membership and voters.

But I suppose we will all know in a few months who got it right
 
R

RepublicanSocialist1798

Yes I did enjoy that John Drennan profile at the weekend. Ok I think we are all accepting that if Brian Lenihan is not running then there is no FF seat in Dublin West, but the latest that I heard is that he is running.

I predict that first seat will go to Joan, then Brian, and the last two seats are between second Labour, John Higgins and Leo Vadarkar.

I know most poster on here will disagree with me on this, but the young doctor is not as loved as much as he thinks out in Dublin West. At times I would compare him to Michael McDowell, who was loved by the pd membership but not the voters, I believe it is the same for Leo with the FG membership and voters.

But I suppose we will all know in a few months who got it right
I certainly wouldn't miss him one iota if he got booted out.
 

DJP

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Dublin West might have three high-profile TD's and a former one in Joe Higgins but disillusionment with politics is as much in Dublin West as it is anywhere in Dublin I think with the exception of Castleknock Village I think. I have not been in FG in a year so I do not know how FG get on on the doors in the constituency. I think that Leo would have more people hate him then most TD's- particularly amongst FF supporters- but there wouldn't be a huge difference. He is not really comparable to Michael McDowell. He has a good team in Dublin West especially with Kieran Dennison in Mulhuddart. I agree with most of the outspoken things he has ever said. I have only disagreed with him around three times I think although significantly. I wouldn't be hugely surprised if he lost his seat given the swing to Labour in Dublin. I think there is more of a chance of him regaining his seat that Higgins getting elected again though. Some, at least, of Joe Higgins's voters/potential votes are not going to fall for his populist argument on the budget and the next few budgets. Some of his voters would not have voted for him in 2007 because they thought his seat was safe but I would doubt, and the SP couldn't prove otherwise, that most of his voters that this is how he lost the seat. He got 6,442 votes in 02 and Joan Burton got 3,810. In 2007 he lost 1,400 votes and Joan Burton picked up nearly 2,000. Joe Higgins lost 3,400 left votes between 02 and 07.
 


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