Dublin West.

White Rose

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Up until the last few days of the 2007 election Joe Higgins was potentially ahead of Joan Burton. The squeeze to FF in working class areas in the last week did impact on the vote of Joe Higgins (and Clare Daly) as it did with others (like SF).

However, in order for the LP to win two seats ahead of Joe Higgins would require Joe Higgins to lose more votes and the LP increase their vote by 2.5 times in the constituency. The LP could potentially double their vote in many Dublin constituencies - but will have trouble doing that where ever the is a strong established left-wing candidate.

Many people switched from Joe Higgins in the closing days of 2007 election on the assumption that he was safe and have repeatedly indicated that they regret their decision. Furthermore, Joe Higgins will benefit more than any other candidate from the Rivervalley vote in Swords (where Clare Daly has repeatedly won a substantial vote). I also disagree with your assessment about where the slippage in Lenihans vote would go - Joe Higgins picked up about 8% of Lenihans surplus transfer last time out (compared to 10% for Varadker and 12% for Burton) but, more importantly, picked up as much of Gerry Lynam's vote as Varadker or Burton and significantly more of the SF vote.

The Socialist Party is never complacent about any election and acts accordingly - elections are nothing if not unpredictable. However, it would be a major surprise if Joe Higgins was not elected in Dublin West. If he gets the 7,000-8,000 you mention above he will be elected comfortably. The LP could win two seats in the constituency - but of they do it will be Lenihan's seat they take.
Remembering back to 2007, the thing that stands out most for me was the utter certainty of the Socialist Party that not only Comrade Joe but also Clare Daly, Mick Murphy would be elected ('ducks in a row' i remember reading).
They were 'squeezed' (a good euphemism that) or people now regret their decision or were afraid. Rubbish. Every time Joe Higgins appears on television now he loses votes (the workers this, the workers that- Joe,we're all bloody workers!)

We can't afford undergraduate politicians now more than ever. FG to take 2 seats here
 


DJP

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Remembering back to 2007, the thing that stands out most for me was the utter certainty of the Socialist Party that not only Comrade Joe but also Clare Daly, Mick Murphy would be elected ('ducks in a row' i remember reading).
They were 'squeezed' (a good euphemism that) or people now regret their decision or were afraid. Rubbish. Every time Joe Higgins appears on television now he loses votes (the workers this, the workers that- Joe,we're all bloody workers!)

We can't afford undergraduate politicians now more than ever.

And Mick Murphy lost his council seat in Tallaght!


FG to take 2 seats here
They have a reasonable chance with Leo and Kieran on the ticket but given the swing to Labour in Dublin then in any party looks like getting two seats it will be them.

FG could have a poor election in Dublin though if two out of the last five opinion polls are anything to go by. In this scenario it could be 2 LP; 1 FF and 1 SP.
 

jayblue

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but I can see people voting for Kieran but not giving the number two to Leo, I could see a situation where Leo and Kieran end up with similar first preference but not a huge transfer from Kieran to Leo, however there could be from Leo to Kieran, I could cope with Kieran been our FG TD, but i would not lose any sleep if Leo lost his seat
 

Catalpa

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Yes, Socialist Party members were confident that Joe Higgins would be re-elected - at least up to a week before the election. It was clear that slippage was occurring in the last week as FF gained some working class votes on the basis of 'the devil you know'.

But you most definitely are wrong about the reason. Immigration was not an issue in the election - it was hardly ever mentioned by anyone on the doors. And you repeat this nonsense that Joe Higgins 'supports mass immigration'.

Right-wing FFers and FGers try to whip up immigration as an issue - yet have only limited success. Despite Dennison attempting to make it an issue in the last locals he still didn't top the poll - in fact he came fourth behind a Socailist Party candidate and two LP candidates (all of whom you would class as 'supporters of mass immigration).

Will Joe Higgins re-gain his seat at the next election - I certainly hope so and I would be reasonably confident he will. He deserves to do it simply because he will be the only candidate to oppose the 'cuts' agenda. And whether you like it or not - booting all the immigrants out of the country would have little or no impact on the political and economic situation that exists. It would be making one group of people scapegoats for a problem they didn't cause and would let those that did cause the problem off the hook (and they would be laughing their faces off at your gullibility).
Yeah well see fact is he did lose his seat as I predicted a long time.

If you don't think Immigration isn't an issue in Dublin West then your dreaming....:rolleyes:

Dennison might well play this card next time out

- it did him no harm in the Locals as he found out.:)

booting all the immigrants out of the country would have little or no impact on the political and economic situation that exists.

Now your are dreaming!
 

White Rose

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but I can see people voting for Kieran but not giving the number two to Leo, I could see a situation where Leo and Kieran end up with similar first preference but not a huge transfer from Kieran to Leo, however there could be from Leo to Kieran, I could cope with Kieran been our FG TD, but i would not lose any sleep if Leo lost his seat
Varadkar will get a larger vote than people think

He's one of the more impressive FG TDs, a bit eccentric perhaps. If he gets a good first preference vote, then Kieran will benefit. At the moment Labour are flying high but I can't help thinking in the heat of an election some at least of their support will be shown to be soft
 

LgCastell

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i really think higgins would be a waste of a TD all his contribution in the dail will be no you cant cut no you cant do that

what would you do then joe?

well nama is bad banks are bad workers are good protect them instead of bank

hope its two fg two lab
 

jayblue

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so out here in the wild west we have a cage fight tomorrow night between Joe Higgins and Leo vardakar, with Clr Ruth Coppinger been the ref. No doubt all the lefties and blue shirts will be out in mass tomorrow night, will be interesting to see he comes out top tomorrow night
 

Doorstepper

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Dec 1, 2010
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With more Local election FPs than anyone, I'd have thought the Socs were a shoo-in for the extra seat here. Yes, Lab's vote then was nearly as good, and a massive increase on Burton's FPs in 07. But 2 LB at the expense of the Socs here seems unlikely to me. Call me green! Plus Lenihan, Varadkar and Burton make this an easy call compared to some.
 

jayblue

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Labour is only picking one candidate at the selection conventions, so it be must be HQ adding the other candidate. So looks like it will be Joan Burton and Pat Nulty for labour, on good day they will take two seats. Joe higgins will also get reclaim his seat he lost in 2007. The finally seat will be fought between Brian and Leo. I would rather see Brian get it that Dr Leo
 

LgCastell

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leo wont be running for the last it'll be between Brain , Joe and Nulty for the last two
 

davehiggz

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Leo Varadkar cannot possibly lose his seat!

He won 20% of the vote in 2007 and in 2009 the local FG vote was 20%-22%, even with the swing to Labour!

Fine Gael has a solid quota in this constituency. Talk of Leo losing his seat is wishful thinking of those who wish he was in their party :)
 

On_The_Far_Right

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Yes, Socialist Party members were confident that Joe Higgins would be re-elected - at least up to a week before the election. It was clear that slippage was occurring in the last week as FF gained some working class votes on the basis of 'the devil you know'.

But you most definitely are wrong about the reason. Immigration was not an issue in the election - it was hardly ever mentioned by anyone on the doors. And you repeat this nonsense that Joe Higgins 'supports mass immigration'.

Right-wing FFers and FGers try to whip up immigration as an issue - yet have only limited success. Despite Dennison attempting to make it an issue in the last locals he still didn't top the poll - in fact he came fourth behind a Socailist Party candidate and two LP candidates (all of whom you would class as 'supporters of mass immigration).

Will Joe Higgins re-gain his seat at the next election - I certainly hope so and I would be reasonably confident he will. He deserves to do it simply because he will be the only candidate to oppose the 'cuts' agenda. And whether you like it or not - booting all the immigrants out of the country would have little or no impact on the political and economic situation that exists. It would be making one group of people scapegoats for a problem they didn't cause and would let those that did cause the problem off the hook (and they would be laughing their faces off at your gullibility).
Its a bad day when I agreeing with a socialist. But you are right I think.

I also used to be very critical of Joes politics, but I cannot take away from him the fact he is a principled politician, straight on his expenses and finances and a compassionate individual when dealing with peoples problems.

I may not agree ever with his politicial policies or outlook of the world, but Joe is a man of courage and extremely good at whipping up the crowd. He is a loss to the Dail and I think had he been there from 2007 we would have had FF on the run considerably sooner over the mass banking fraud.
 

On_The_Far_Right

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but I can see people voting for Kieran but not giving the number two to Leo, I could see a situation where Leo and Kieran end up with similar first preference but not a huge transfer from Kieran to Leo, however there could be from Leo to Kieran, I could cope with Kieran been our FG TD, but i would not lose any sleep if Leo lost his seat
Leo will get a massive vote and top the poll. Yes he is a divisive figure, but thats because he says things that eithe ryou like or loath!! He has a solid base, a considerable following and a genuine chance of being a Minister in the next government.

I believe people, while they may not like him personally, will still vote for him because he is extremely effective.

Leo to top poll with surplus.
Joan to come in just below quota.
Higgins to come in just below quota.
Lenihan to come in next.
2nd Labour, FG and Inds not at races.
 

Doorstepper

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This newbie is glad to bump into you, davehiggz, to thank you for your Constituency Predictions template. As an old psephologist, with an election looming, that is my primary interest at pol.ie. So I've been combing through these Threads slowly, bringing yours back up to Page 1 where I find them. Did you complete all 43 constits? (I only went back to Page 12, and I've a list of 20 to do from those pages. Is there any Constit lost beyond, or do you want to start afresh given the changes since Oct09?

OTFR, yes, Joe was an adornment to the Dail and will be a welcome return for the reasons you state, agree with him or not. And yes, Vlad is secure; tho I think Lenihan will get a bigger sympathy vote than you reckon. Pancreatic cancer leaves him with only a 5% chance of surviving the next Dail. You've got to hand it to him, and may he beat ALL the odds!
 
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I doubt Pat Nulty will be 2nd Labour candidate. He would have won a convention if they let the members select a running mate for Joan, so I reckon they have someone 'high profile' up their sleeve. Doubt they can pull off a second seat. it is one of the few Dublin constituencies in which Lab won't top the poll. This is cause some of the middle class who are impressed with Joan will vote for Varadker, some of the working class who might vote for her will go to Joe Higgins. She'll be elected easily, but with very little for a running mate. This will be FG 1, LAB 1, SP 1, and Lenihan to limp home for the 4th seat...
 

Catalpa

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Leo Varadkar cannot possibly lose his seat!

He won 20% of the vote in 2007 and in 2009 the local FG vote was 20%-22%, even with the swing to Labour!

Fine Gael has a solid quota in this constituency. Talk of Leo losing his seat is wishful thinking of those who wish he was in their party :)
Given his high profile and obvious intelligence + good looks I think the bold Leo is pretty well guaranteed a seat next time out.

I notice Joan Burton had a go on him on RTE News at One today

- even though he wasn't actually on the programme himself!

She incorrectly claimed that LV was in favour of cutting the minimum wage though she later seemed to retract that accusation - if I heard her right.

TBH I think I will give him my No 1 as he is pretty sober in his judgements, even though I would not by any means agree with all he comes out with.

1 Varadkar

2 Burton

3 Higgins

- if I vote with my head:)

1 Higgins

2 Burton

3 Varadkar

- if I vote with my heart...:?
 

Catalpa

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I doubt Pat Nulty will be 2nd Labour candidate. He would have won a convention if they let the members select a running mate for Joan, so I reckon they have someone 'high profile' up their sleeve. Doubt they can pull off a second seat. it is one of the few Dublin constituencies in which Lab won't top the poll. This is cause some of the middle class who are impressed with Joan will vote for Varadker, some of the working class who might vote for her will go to Joe Higgins. She'll be elected easily, but with very little for a running mate. This will be FG 1, LAB 1, SP 1, and Lenihan to limp home for the 4th seat...
Most probable out come is:

1st Varadkar

2nd Higgins

3rd Burton

4th Wide open

If Lenihan runs its touch and go if he will make it.

If he doesn't that leaves it as a scrap between Nulty or Denison for the last seat.
 

LgCastell

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dennison is leo's running mate what he like?

Two FGs unlikely here i'd say if FF drop it'll prob be to labour wouldn't it?
 

Kill Bill

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dennison is leo's running mate what he like?

Two FGs unlikely here i'd say if FF drop it'll prob be to labour wouldn't it?
This is a relatively straight forward constituency IMO.

Burton, Varadkar, Higgins, Lenihan in that order. Lenihan is too long around and based in the area to lose out - FF I'm sure are polling if Lenihan was in danger of losing he would call it a day I believe rather than suffer the humiliation.

If Lenihan doesn't stand then FG and LP to fight for last with Labour taking it.

There just isn't 2 seats for FG here - Dennison (why anyone would vote for this guy I don't know:eek:) just doesn't have the base -
 


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