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Economic recovery in medium term ‘highly uncertain’ - IMF


emulator

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The IMF staff report is being reported in the Times. It seems the Government have been quite selective in what they've been saying regarding the IMF's viewpoint on our performance and likely future performance....

No guarantee of bailout exit even with rigorous adherence to reform programme....

Like the EU Commission staff report, disclosed by The Irish Times today, the IMF report also expresses concerns about the continuing problems with containing costs in the health sector; the problem of high numbers of long-term unemployed; and the increasing percentage of serious non-performing mortgages and other loans in the banking sector.

But it is in the overall economic outlook that most concern is expressed. One of the main risks identified include the situation in the financial sector. It also refers to other major risks, including recovery being contingent on improvements in the UK and US as well as the euro area, and a fiscal drag on growth caused by fiscal consolidation.

“These risks to growth have profound adverse implications for the robustness of debt sustainability and for the durability of market access.”
Economic recovery in medium term

However, growth is expected to remain sluggish in 2013 and the outlook for gradual recovery over the medium term remains highly uncertain. Recent indicators appear consistent with previous projections for growth on the order of 1 percent in 2013, as the decline in domestic demand is slowing and exports are expected to firm modestly. With public and private debts still high, and the financial system facing weak profitability and providing limited credit, there are significant hurdles to achieving the growth in domestic demand needed to drive a stronger recovery and job creation from 2014 onwards. Continued weak growth would likely erode confidence and potentially undermine market access as a recovery is critical to putting Ireland‘s debt on a downward path.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr1393.pdf

This is somewhat at odds with the information coming from the Government. Leaving the "bailout" at the end of this year is dependent on growth. How can we have growth or increase it as predicted, when we are increasing taxes and stealth taxes.... ?
 

Normal Lord

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It's quite simple most of us expect fairly low growth here for a good number of years. The problem with that is due to the high numbers of jobs lost, and the weak domestic economy, you can pretty much say even in 5 years we won't have made up what has been lost to date (not even close to it)

FG can't have it both ways, big tax hikes and yes many stealth add on taxes take money out of the economy (no question) yet they expect decent growth to come from this. You don't have to be a genius to see how that isn't going to work. The export market is dependent on the EU to a large degree, and with many problems there and weak demand it's not likely to be enough to pull things up for Eire.

FG will stick to their austerity plan (clearly failed and not working only doing more harm) People are calling this the lost "decade" because the cuts are too many, too fast, too many tax increases. We'd have actually had a decent recovery and growth if FG had the sense to take things more slowly and invest in the country instead of shutting it down.
 

emulator

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It's quite simple most of us expect fairly low growth here for a good number of years. The problem with that is due to the high numbers of jobs lost, and the weak domestic economy, you can pretty much say even in 5 years we won't have made up what has been lost to date (not even close to it)

FG can't have it both ways, big tax hikes and yes many stealth add on taxes take money out of the economy (no question) yet they expect decent growth to come from this. You don't have to be a genius to see how that isn't going to work. The export market is dependent on the EU to a large degree, and with many problems there and weak demand it's not likely to be enough to pull things up for Eire.

FG will stick to their austerity plan (clearly failed and not working only doing more harm) People are calling this the lost "decade" because the cuts are too many, too fast, too many tax increases. We'd have actually had a decent recovery and growth if FG had the sense to take things more slowly and invest in the country instead of shutting it down.
Seems to be the case alright.

I think I read somewhere the expected growth forecast for next year was 2.2%. That's more than double last year. So, essentially, our Government are telling everyone they are going to grow the economy over 100% while removing billions from people's pockets. Not to mention the effect of the repossessions of properties by banks and them either being left with them or having to sell them on realising their actual losses....

It will be an interesting one to watch and, going by what the Government have been saying of late and what the IMF have just released.... I know who I'll be listening to.
 

Dublin 4

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Great Thread - was gonna start same thing myself but got too cumfy.

More Doom Threads please :p
 

storybud1

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Kicking the can down the road should be classed as an economic indicator up their with GDP & GNP. Thankfully ExxonMobil have just started its test drilling programme today in the Dunquin licence area.

In fairness the IMF and the Troika have been consistent in hammering the pay we give to some jobs (they call themselves professions but they are just jobs FFS) Banking is now seen for what it is, loan-sharking and high fees to move your own money around.

The sooner we undergo an economic reality check in this Country the better,
 

emulator

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Great Thread - was gonna start same thing myself but got too cumfy.

More Doom Threads please :p
Don't know about the doom aspect of it but a good dose of reality wouldn't go astray with this Government. We already had one with a policy of sticking their heads in the sand.... you would've thought this bunch would've learned from their mistakes ?

Apparently not....
 

Dublin 4

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Hope not...
 

emulator

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Kicking the can down the road should be classed as an economic indicator up their with GDP & GNP. Thankfully ExxonMobil have just started its test drilling programme today in the Dunquin licence area.

In fairness the IMF and the Troika have been consistent in hammering the pay we give to some jobs (they call themselves professions but they are just jobs FFS) Banking is now seen for what it is, loan-sharking and high fees to move your own money around.

The sooner we undergo an economic reality check in this Country the better,
That's mentioned too in the IMF staff report linked in the OP. I would strongly suggest people read it to see exactly what the Government are telling the IMF. For example, they have told them the Unions have agreed CPA II. :shock:

The way things are going we will indeed need a second "bailout"....
 

emulator

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No mention of CP2 there.
On the expenditure side, the authorities have reached agreement with public service union leaders on a proposal that would trim annual net pay and pension outlays by the additional €1 billion targeted by 2015, with €0.3 billion in savings slated for 2013 (MEFP ¶15). The main elements of the three-year agreement, that, if approved by union members, would enter into force on July 1st, include (i) increasing the number of standard hours worked (to a minimum of 37 hours); (ii) cutting pay of public servants earning over €65,000 on a progressive scale starting at 5.5 percent and rising to 10 percent for those earning over €185,000; (iv) freezing automatic increments on a progressive scale based on salary; and (v) reducing overtime costs. To prevent renewed health spending overruns, the implementation of measures in this sector will be monitored on a monthly basis by a high-level cabinet committee.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr1393.pdf

They have it factored in even though it's looking shaky at the moment....
 

dresden8

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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr1393.pdf

They have it factored in even though it's looking shaky at the moment....
The "requirement" came out of the blue since we have met all out targets. Allegedly.

Where did this new target come from?

Especially since we have met all our targets to much fanfare?

Have we not met our targets?

What particular lie is the government not telling us?
 

emulator

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The "requirement" came out of the blue since we have met all out targets. Allegedly.

Where did this new target come from?

Especially since we have met all our targets to much fanfare?

Have we not met our targets?

What particular lie is the government not telling us?
It seems to be a Government idea.... not an IMF one.
 

emulator

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So the government don't believe the IMF/troika.

But they expect us to.

What a turn up.
If you keep an eye on the IMF site under the publications, you can see what ideas the Government are putting forward. I think it's every few months they send something ? I'll have to check....
 

dresden8

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If you keep an eye on the IMF site under the publications, you can see what ideas the Government are putting forward. I think it's every few months they send something ? I'll have to check....
But....we're on target.......Hammer, the least IMFF DELUDED of all, told us so.............
 

off with their heads

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considering every target/projection these fools have released so far has been way way out does this mean recovery is weeks/months away :D
 

dresden8

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considering every target/projection these fools have released so far has been way way out does this mean recovery is weeks/months away :D
You'd wonder. CP was on target to deliver. We're on target to deliver but CP has to be torn up for some reason.

No reason at all.

The government is on target. Yessirrre Bob. On target.

Apart from the 1 billion the troika are not aware of. But SSSShhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!
 
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