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Economist: Budget deficit levels for 2013


feedmelies

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By comparison, the USA is at -7.7% of GDP which would put it as one of the dark red states along with the UK and Spain. Japan is at -9.1% of GDP.



A few interesting things to note:
-The PIIGS have managed to reduce their deficits quite succesfully, we now have a lower deficit level than the UK, USA and Japan
-Ireland's deficit has also shrank considerably, yet our GDP has been growing for two years straight
-Astronomically high deficit in the UK, which is usually considered relatively OK economy wise
-Italy, one of the PIIGS, has a very sustainable deficit level
-Greece's deficit is quite sane (without interest, they actually have a surplus)

Source:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/05/european-economy-guide

And a list for the whole world (2012):
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2222.html
 
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Warrior of Destiny

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Thanks for this feedmelies.

Although you could have provided links to back up your points beneath the infographic.
 

spidermom

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Japan been in minus numbers for how long now???????
 

DuineEile

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Greece had a huge chunk of its debt forgiven. There is huge massaging of figures also.



D
 

SideysGhost

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Interesting alright. The UK's situation since 2008 has been much worse than you'd think cos the meeja keep quiet about it. I suppose the assumption has been that they have some control over their own currency so they have more options, but they are racking up eye-watering amounts of debt and are possibly the worst can-kickers of all. I wouldn't be surprised to see the can run out of road and a major day of reckoning within 5 years.

The figures are GDP - as always, Ireland is a special case here and GDP is largely meaningless. Only in Ireland is the GDP/GNP gap so extreme, what is it these days, about 18% of a difference? In most countries it's around 2%. If we used GNP then Ireland is still deep red and still in deep trouble. Spain is only starting to fess up to their problems and youth unemployment is over 50% - it'll get a lot worse in Spain before it gets any better.

Portugal, Greece and Italy though do seem to be in not as bad a shape as their PIIGSiness implies.

The Netherlands are sliding rapidly over the last 6 months, rumours of serious trouble coming down the tracks for them. I'd see them losing their "core" "prudent" tag fairly soon.

I suspect in 2 or 3 years it'll be Ireland, UK, Spain and Netherlands, possibly with France that are the countries in crisis mode, while Italy and Greece and possibly Portugal might have clawed their way out of danger...is the European economic divide about to switch from north/south to west/east?
 

DuineEile

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From the article.

"Despite these improvements, government debt levels are worryingly high in the periphery. Despite a bond buyback late last year and the writedown of over half of privately held debt in March 2012, Greek debt will reach 175% of GDP by the end of this year, an untenable burden. Although Greece is being helped by interest deferral and maturity extension along with very low interest rates, it needs a further restructuring, this time of official debt. Italy’s debt burden continues to rise, to 131% of GDP this year, and debt in Ireland and Portugal is forecast to reach 123%."


In other words our spending is nearly under control, it is our bank debt that is going to send us back to the Stone Age.

D
 

SideysGhost

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Japan been in minus numbers for how long now???????
About 1991 IIRC! Carrying vast amounts of debt with a rapidly declining population. I think most of the debt is actually owned to the Japanese, punters and corporations, so they can fluff and can-kick, but like the UK eventually they are going to hit a wall especially with the declining demographics.
 

feedmelies

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From the article.

"Despite these improvements, government debt levels are worryingly high in the periphery. Despite a bond buyback late last year and the writedown of over half of privately held debt in March 2012, Greek debt will reach 175% of GDP by the end of this year, an untenable burden. Although Greece is being helped by interest deferral and maturity extension along with very low interest rates, it needs a further restructuring, this time of official debt. Italy’s debt burden continues to rise, to 131% of GDP this year, and debt in Ireland and Portugal is forecast to reach 123%."


In other words our spending is nearly under control, it is our bank debt that is going to send us back to the Stone Age.

D
Do you have any figures for our bank debt? Most of our debt is not bank debt (actually officially none of it is due to the government taking it on). If we manage to get our deficit under control, the interest payments from the debt may be a nuisance/hindrance in the long term, but they certainly won't send us back to the stone age. Deficit is a much more pressing matter - if you can get the deficit under control, as long as the debt isn't ridiculously high like 140%, then there shouldn't be a major crisis.

If on the other hand you couldn't get your deficit under control, THEN there would be a major problem.
 

stopdoingstuff

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What is the projected government deficit in billions for 2013?
 

spidermom

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Those Japs......crafty feckers!!


My sis lived there for a while....
As an expat of course things were very different!!
Talk about those "with"...and those "without"....!!


Those GDP figures mean a hell of lot more to those "without"...than those "with"!!


:-(


A lot like here!!
 

SPN

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From the article.

"Despite these improvements, government debt levels are worryingly high in the periphery. Despite a bond buyback late last year and the writedown of over half of privately held debt in March 2012, Greek debt will reach 175% of GDP by the end of this year, an untenable burden. Although Greece is being helped by interest deferral and maturity extension along with very low interest rates, it needs a further restructuring, this time of official debt. Italy’s debt burden continues to rise, to 131% of GDP this year, and debt in Ireland and Portugal is forecast to reach 123%."


In other words our spending is nearly under control, it is our bank debt that is going to send us back to the Stone Age.

D
What Bank Debt is that?

Our spending is going to be 143% of tax revenues this year. You think that is "under control"?
 

SideysGhost

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Our spending is going to be 143% of tax revenues this year. You think that is "under control"?
So how are they claiming the deficit is down to 4 or 5%? I don't pay as much attention these days, is there still heroic levels of spooFFing going on with the reported numbers?
 

Tea Party Patriot

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From the article.

"Despite these improvements, government debt levels are worryingly high in the periphery. Despite a bond buyback late last year and the writedown of over half of privately held debt in March 2012, Greek debt will reach 175% of GDP by the end of this year, an untenable burden. Although Greece is being helped by interest deferral and maturity extension along with very low interest rates, it needs a further restructuring, this time of official debt. Italy’s debt burden continues to rise, to 131% of GDP this year, and debt in Ireland and Portugal is forecast to reach 123%."


In other words our spending is nearly under control, it is our bank debt that is going to send us back to the Stone Age.

D
Our spending is far from under control and arguably the two toughest budgets are yet to come because the low hanging fruit has been picked.

While the bank debt is no aid in the matter the constant borrowing over the last five years for current expenditure is the real culprit, we needed a lot more front loading to avoid ending up in this situation.

On the OP the three countries running large deficits namely the US, Japan and the UK are not comparable to the Eurozone in that each has control of its own currency. Their debt can easily be inflated away, not a good thing for anyone holding their fiat currencies but an option we don't have none the less.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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About 1991 IIRC! Carrying vast amounts of debt with a rapidly declining population. I think most of the debt is actually owned to the Japanese, punters and corporations, so they can fluff and can-kick, but like the UK eventually they are going to hit a wall especially with the declining demographics.
The target for the end of the year was 7.5% (IIRC) which if there is growth beyond forecast would reduce accordingly. I'd say there is bit of estimation going on here, but then it is very hard to accurately forecast even in the best of times.
 

SideysGhost

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The target for the end of the year was 7.5% (IIRC) which if there is growth beyond forecast would reduce accordingly. I'd say there is bit of estimation going on here, but then it is very hard to accurately forecast even in the best of times.
Yeah but SPN claimed "Our spending is going to be 143% of tax revenues this year" and that cannot be reconciled with a projected deficit of 7.5%, or anywhere near it.

Somebody is telling porkies here. I don't pay as much attention to the actual numbers any more so it'd be interesting to see which is wrong (or even if both are!) based on actual facts.
 

Tea Party Patriot

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Yeah but SPN claimed "Our spending is going to be 143% of tax revenues this year" and that cannot be reconciled with a projected deficit of 7.5%, or anywhere near it.

Somebody is telling porkies here. I don't pay as much attention to the actual numbers any more so it'd be interesting to see which is wrong (or even if both are!) based on actual facts.
Was he specifically referring to income tax revenues, or was he including USC, PRSI, VAT, Duty, VRT etc. ? The devil is in the detail.

Apologies if I am coming across like Sir Humphrey petunia
 
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stopdoingstuff

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We will have a deficit of about 12.5 billion. Nominal GDP will be about 167 billion.
 
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