Economist Roubini who the predicted financial crash has a bleak outlook for the next decade

Patslatt1

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See Nouriel Roubini: 'My prediction for a Great Depression is not about 2020, but the decade of the 2020s' I got used to his heavy accent a minute into the video! He expects negative economic forces to prevail for the next decade-increasing economic inequality in the USA and many countries with continuing automation of jobs; further gains internationally for political populism advocating disruptive economic policies; record excessive borrowings of US corporations forcing cutbacks in employment and capital spending;disruptions to trade and global supply chains; deterioration in US/China trade relations;the inability of USA to continue massive deficits without eventual restoration of inflation; and great difficulty in controlling such inflation in a weak economy.
Governments need to prepare for such eventualities. I expect a President Biden administration would restore cooperation and consultation with US allies and trade partners and introduce income redistribution policies and health care reforms to help America's large underclasses including poor whites. A negative aspect of Democratic politics is hostility to trade among the left wing of the party.
As for the above negative economic forces,the public's experience of Trump has turned a big majority of Americans against hard right wing populism; historic low interest rates facilitate record borrowings of US corporations; a Biden administration could help slow or stop the trend to disruption of trade; and the interdependency of economic relations betrween the US and China could limit deterioration in trade relations if President Xi shows restraint.
 


shiel

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I am pessimistic.

I think extreme right wing populism is going to prevail.

We are on the way back to the 1930s.

I hope I am wrong.
 

Sync

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I think that's a really interesting piece.

I disagree with the idea that there's going to be a depression, but I absolutely agree with the idea of increasing economic inequality. Covid's been useful to observe in an exaggerated environment what I think the trend's going to be.

Decimation of the high street. Completely. Mid level clothes stores are all on borrowed time. All the people they employ are done. PC World, Mango, Gamestop, Travel companies, I mean take your pick. All done.

Massive increase in the JD.Coms, Amazons, Alibaba and the people they employ. Increasing gap between the haves and have nots.

What the company results show is that unemployment and the working classes being concerned about their incomes, don't really matter. Because they only buy a predictable amount of items anyway (Groceries, essentials etc). And as long as the middle classes continue to buy, your online or services company's going to do well.

So I think it's a changing environment that hasn't really be fully modelled yet. For instance, all that high street destruction = increase in land to build apartments = satisfaction of demand and reduced housing costs. There are benefits as well as losses.

But I definitely think we're entering an era of higher unemployment amongst the unskilled workforce.
 

making waves

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You don't have to be an economist to realise that we face a serious economic downturn. This has not been caused by the pandemic, but has been exasperated by it

The causes of the crisis of 2008 have not been resolved - in fact they have been deepened by the austerity of the subsequent 10 years and the massive shift in wealth from the poorest 90% to the top 1%. The world economy faced a downturn in 2020/2021 irrespective of covid 19 - it has been more accelerate and deepened by the pandemic - but it was going to happen anyway.

And there will be a reaction - more likely to the left, than to right-wing populism - and this is indicated by the recent upsurge of protest against right-wing populism and dictatorial powers across the globe.
 

Sync

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this is indicated by the recent upsurge of protest against right-wing populism and dictatorial powers across the globe.
:rolleyes: Right up there with "winning the argument" in terms of importance.
 

McTell

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I bought roubini's next book and it was full of ifs and maybes.

Maybe his prediction of 2007 was itself a black swan?
 

making waves

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:rolleyes: Right up there with "winning the argument" in terms of importance.
I was responding to shiel's view that 'extreme right-wing populism is going to prevail'

Then again - not the first time you have jumped in with both feet.
 

Sync

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Your view has no basis in fact. Mass protests happen all the time. The people actually show up to vote.

Hundreds of thousands showed up to protest the Iraqi war both in the US and U.K. Then the voters returned Bush and Blair.

Protests can absolutely affect change. But they’re a terrible indicator of how people will vote on Election Day. Particularly when it comes to your definition of “left”.
 

Patslatt1

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I bought roubini's next book and it was full of ifs and maybes.

Maybe his prediction of 2007 was itself a black swan?
His forecast of the financial crash was based on his familiarity with historical financial crises. Conventional economists trained largely on mathematical models that rapidly become dated laughed him out of the conference room where he made the doom laden forecast.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
He's had a lot of attention and mileage out of a forecast of doom back 20 years ago and been steadily forecasting doom ever since. All the way through a massive bull run lasting years.

And as far as I am aware he has never mentioned the risk of pandemic to the markets. Neil Woodford was the prophet up to three months ago. There's always a search for a prophet in the markets. Probably the anthropomorphism of the natural human desire to see order and categorise everything from risk to -non-risk and upwards through the KaLife-a-scope.

Roubini's nickname is 'Dr Doom' he forecasts the end of the financial world so often. Been doing it for 20 years which gives him at least 3 chances to look very right by my back of fag-packet calculations.
 

McTell

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Robots, AI, self driving cars, these will be the big things.

Not just jobs for your kids selling and mending them, but also jobs in the BS sector giving peeps advice on how to cope without a "job".
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
Could never get over the amount of shop-workers eager to show everyone how to use automated scanning machines and bag their own shopping. I even tried explaining quietly to one or two assistants who couldn't understand why I was reluctant to use the self-scanning aisle. Even when I told them that they were recommending their own redundancy. One said 'oh they would never do that' :)
 

Lumpy Talbot

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There's definitely an arms race going on for IP control over functional automation, AI (although that's a long way off and misadvertised constantly right now), quantum computing aka Very Big Data.

You have the Americans with MIT and Steve Schwarzman and Gates and co in one corner, China with Jack Ma, and possibly Masoyoshi Son of Softbank in the China corner generally, you have the Russians spying on both and playing catch-up, there's shedloads of middle east money involved one way or another and no one wants anyone else to have that intellectual property owned by the other side.
 

Patslatt1

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He's had a lot of attention and mileage out of a forecast of doom back 20 years ago and been steadily forecasting doom ever since. All the way through a massive bull run lasting years.

And as far as I am aware he has never mentioned the risk of pandemic to the markets. Neil Woodford was the prophet up to three months ago. There's always a search for a prophet in the markets. Probably the anthropomorphism of the natural human desire to see order and categorise everything from risk to -non-risk and upwards through the KaLife-a-scope.

Roubini's nickname is 'Dr Doom' he forecasts the end of the financial world so often. Been doing it for 20 years which gives him at least 3 chances to look very right by my back of fag-packet calculations.
If his doom forecast began in 2,000,then it was a useful warning about the risks of investing in financial institutions and credit dependent industries,especially property. Even if the timing was premature by seven years, investors were alerted to the risks and could have prepared strategies to reduce exposure on signs of financial stress.
Since the crash, the slow US and global recovery has been cause for concern,though prolonged recovery has compensated for that.
What gives Roubini's forecast a good chance of proving out is the fact that the present pandemic near depression has inflicted so much damage on the real economy that the recovery could be even slower than the last one after the financial crash and such a snailpace recovery could easily tip into a double dip recession.
 

Patslatt1

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Robots, AI, self driving cars, these will be the big things.

Not just jobs for your kids selling and mending them, but also jobs in the BS sector giving peeps advice on how to cope without a "job".
Robot arms have been very advanced for decades.
It is sinking in that self driving cars and vehicles will have to be limited to predictable roads,maybe those in grid patterns in climates without winter weather such as California and Arizona. THat limitation aside, the tech will be useful for assisting drivers.
AI and machine learning are overhyped. They depend on statistical connections that are subject to many false connections, or correlations in the jargon. Famous false correlations were good baseball seasons for the New York Yankees and good years for the stock market.
 

ON THE ONE ROAD

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You don't have to be an economist to realise that we face a serious economic downturn. This has not been caused by the pandemic, but has been exasperated by it

The causes of the crisis of 2008 have not been resolved - in fact they have been deepened by the austerity of the subsequent 10 years and the massive shift in wealth from the poorest 90% to the top 1%. The world economy faced a downturn in 2020/2021 irrespective of covid 19 - it has been more accelerate and deepened by the pandemic - but it was going to happen anyway.

And there will be a reaction - more likely to the left, than to right-wing populism - and this is indicated by the recent upsurge of protest against right-wing populism and dictatorial powers across the globe.

Think there is expectations of what the left can do and what the left can do. The left is in a position to push identity politics. Common cause with young middle class liberals, its an open door. And then there is the left that existed when our parents where young. They had extensive networks outside parliamentary politics to pressurize parliamentary politics, employers. They don't exist any more. There was an interesting speech going around a few years ago. Carney of the bank of england using maxist analysis comparing new technology in the north of england in the 19th century, huge movements of people into that area to work in the industrial revolution, long term stagnant wages, the development of mutually beneficial societies, the development of trade unions as we knew them and the creation of the ussr. Carney compared these events to today. IT revolution, that we are at the people movement and wage stagnation stage. A long way to go. It will happen, but a long way to go.




On the post above mentioning the high street. Would have agreed with you until i saw the deliveroo people queuing up regularly in the local centra picking up drink for people. The High Street may continue to exist as a warehouse model doing same day delivery and return. But over all yeah agree, a lot of commercial property in cities is obsolete it will go residential. smaller cities bigger towns perhaps. Serious work needs to be done on the transport system outside of Dublin.
 

Lumpy Talbot

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No
I think retail, other than trinketry and fast food will probably only exist in shop on the high street mode in some chi-chi areas for 'colour' but the model is doomed to back street warehousing and drone delivery and that's fairly unavoidable at this stage. I do like the idea of people moving back into city centres though I'm not sure that many will want to pay so much to live in the centre of a city any more.

We won't know until we see patterns of movement in the house sale and lettings market post-lockdown over a period of time but I can't see people dashing to buy in Mayfair in London for example. There's no society to speak of at all there these days as all the fine houses and apartments are owned by overseas investors.

Then again Mayfair is hardly going to change much in aspect and any chi-chi shops, galleries, gentlemen's clubs of St James, none of those will disappear overnight but the private dining rooms may be completely buggered financially from here.

It is the High Street in Ealing, or Waterford or wherever that is going to just largely disappear. Maybe there is a case for keeping shop-frontage and allowing people to use the emptying non-rate producing retail space for co-operatives and small business incubator zones instead.

Either way the rates income from High Streets and small shopping centres is about to disappear so local authorities are going to have to be imaginative. Worth bearing in mind that Wetherspoons, a High Street giant across the UK now in all respects, emerged out of a desperate need by local authorities to have buildings let and earning rates rather than costing money and being boarded up. Most of Wetherspoons premises are High Street buildings that were boarded up. Tim Martin just showed the local authorities a way out of their conundrum.
 

making waves

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Think there is expectations of what the left can do and what the left can do. The left is in a position to push identity politics. Common cause with young middle class liberals, its an open door. And then there is the left that existed when our parents where young. They had extensive networks outside parliamentary politics to pressurize parliamentary politics, employers. They don't exist any more. There was an interesting speech going around a few years ago. Carney of the bank of england using maxist analysis comparing new technology in the north of england in the 19th century, huge movements of people into that area to work in the industrial revolution, long term stagnant wages, the development of mutually beneficial societies, the development of trade unions as we knew them and the creation of the ussr. Carney compared these events to today. IT revolution, that we are at the people movement and wage stagnation stage. A long way to go. It will happen, but a long way to go.
I think there is a significant misunderstanding in your comment of the balance of class forces in society and the nature of left organisations.

It is a mistake to suggest that the left is engaged in identity politics. The left challenges all forms of discrimination. The issues marked as identity politics, racism, abortion rights, gender equality, feminism, violence against women, domestic violence etc are class issues. The difference between the approach of liberals and the approach of the left can be demonstrated in the approach to Pride - now a highly commercialised event thanks to the liberals in the 'official' LGBTQ community. All of these elements of discrimination can be traced back to the class based nature of society and none can be resolved in a comprehensive manner and most of the youth involved in these campaigns are working class.

You are also incorrect in your second assertion that 'they don't exist anymore'. The trade union movement is stronger now than it ever was in the nineteenth century or most of the twentieth century for that matter. You are assuming that developments progress in a linear fashion - they do not. The initial mass trade unions of the late nineteenth century were extremely conservative bodies, they banned discussion of political matters and where the leaders did engage politically it was with the Liberals in Britain, the Home Rule movement in Ireland etc. and designed to ensure that the trade unions did not rock the boat of the liberal agenda. Then a major dock strike that began in London in 1889 led to a massive explosion of competitive general trade unions on a global basis.

The covid 19 pandemic has utterly exposed the class nature of society and the extremes of wealth inequality that exist. From the inequalities in the health system, to the exploitation of the crisis by employers (as with the Debenhams workers in Ireland), to the callous disregard for health and safety in the workplace, to the response of the elites. There has been a significant increase in trade union membership since the beginning of the lockdown - and this has happened globally. One prime example is the fact that somewhere in the region of 20,000 non-union teachers in Britain have joined the teachers unions since lockdown. Trade Unions in Ireland have also seen increases in membership - workers realised that to protect their health and safety and to protect their jobs and living standards from attacks by the bosses, they needed to join a union.

On top of that - massive struggles have broken out globally - the most significant example being the BLM protests in the USA that have spread into anti-racism protests on a global basis. This is almost exclusively a working class movement, has demonstrated the class nature of the capitalist state and has evolved into much wider campaigns like the successful Amazon tax campaign in Seattle, campaigns against evictions in cities all across the USA (moratoriums on evictions run out this week and campaign groups have been organising to prevent mass evictions by landlords) etc. The movement against the new security law in Hong Kong (almost exclusively working class in character), the massive protests against Bolsonaro's attempt to create a dictatorship in Brazil, huge protests in India against Modi's new citizenship law, protests in France that began as BLM protests but have now evolved in to protests against poverty and attack's by Macron's government on workers rights etc.

Unlike in 2008 when the global crash had a major stunning effect on working class protest - the current crisis is provoking a different reaction. The working class globally have already indicated that they will not accept another round of austerity - which is why most major governments and financial institutions are talking about implementing major stimulus packages. The problem is that the genie is out of the bottle - class consciousness has developed to a significant degree over the past few months and will develop further in the immediate future. all of the different facets of inequality, discrimination and violence are beginning to coalesce around the realisation that the root cause of all of these problems is capitalism. The next period is likely to see a significant explosion of class conflict on a global basis.
 

wombat

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No idea why people listen to economists. They are as scientific as the Roman augurs who used chicken guts to tell the emperor what he wanted to hear. :LOL:
 


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