Election Prediction in Cork South West

thetruthsback

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Currently, the state of the parties is 1 Fianna Fail 2 Fine Gael. Both Fine Gael incumbents are not standing. Results from the Red C Poll suggest two Fine Gael and one Labour. However, two private polls carried out by FF and FG has Christy O' Sullivan topping the poll. Sinn Fein to my knowledge is the only party with a nominated candidate: Paul Hayes, a former Cllr from Clonakilty. Labour was to hold its convention this week but cancelled due to the weather. The following individuals have put their names forward Senator Micheal McCarthy, Cllr Gearoid Buckley and Brendan Leahy. Fianna Fail are expected to nominate Christy O' Sullivan and Senator Denis O ' Donovan. Fine Geal holding its convention next Friday, seven candidates going: Cllr Kevin Murphy, Cllr Tim Cowhig, Cllr John O Sullivan, Mayor Jim Daly, Cllr Mary Hegarty and Cllr Noel Harrington. I have no other information on any other candidate
 


davehiggz

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I think I'd have to agree with 2 FG and 1 Labour as well. How is it possible that Christy O'Sullivan tops the polls when he has a running mate too. That would assume the FF vote remains mainly unchanged since 2007. Or does he top the poll on his own?

At 13% FF haven't a hope in 3 seaters and even if they could get above 20% in this constituency they'd need some serious internal transfers and a relatively large amount of other transfers too. But we know that FF is now transfer repellent!

2 FG, 1 Labour
 

Boy M5

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Thanks. We now have a thread on CSW not on the parties. My gut tells me Mr Higgins is right.
 

locke

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Aside from the Bandon LEA, the FF vote didn't suffer hugely in Cork SW in the locals.

Combine that with the retirement of the two sitting FG TDs and FG 1 FF 1 Lab 1 is possible, even if headline analysis of the poll suggests FG2 Lab 1
 

Boy M5

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Aside from the Bandon LEA, the FF vote didn't suffer hugely in Cork SW in the locals.

Combine that with the retirement of the two sitting FG TDs and FG 1 FF 1 Lab 1 is possible, even if headline analysis of the poll suggests FG2 Lab 1
If so is it Christy (parish pump politician who never draws water) O'Sullivan or Denis O'Donovan who is a more intelligent man?

For the 3rd time (on the CSW threads under Party Forums) I'll repeat my comment that there's bus shelters in Meath that get greater funding than West Cork.
 

locke

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I suspect it will split

1 Bandon/Kinsale
1 Clon/Skibb
1 Bantry/Castletownbere

so which one got in would depend on who was selected on the FG and Labour tickets.

If neither of them puts up a candidate from the Bantry area (and Labour definitely won't), O'Donovan would be favourite.
 

Cork1234

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Currently, the state of the parties is 1 Fianna Fail 2 Fine Gael. Both Fine Gael incumbents are not standing. Results from the Red C Poll suggest two Fine Gael and one Labour. However, two private polls carried out by FF and FG has Christy O' Sullivan topping the poll. Sinn Fein to my knowledge is the only party with a nominated candidate: Paul Hayes, a former Cllr from Clonakilty. Labour was to hold its convention this week but cancelled due to the weather. The following individuals have put their names forward Senator Micheal McCarthy, Cllr Gearoid Buckley and Brendan Leahy. Fianna Fail are expected to nominate Christy O' Sullivan and Senator Denis O ' Donovan. Fine Geal holding its convention next Friday, seven candidates going: Cllr Kevin Murphy, Cllr Tim Cowhig, Cllr John O Sullivan, Mayor Jim Daly, Cllr Mary Hegarty and Cllr Noel Harrington. I have no other information on any other candidate

Why have you opened YET ANOTHER THREAD on this same topic?!

Mods, please close this down or merge. Thanks
 

Boy M5

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Why have you opened YET ANOTHER THREAD on this same topic?!

Mods, please close this down or merge. Thanks
The 3 threads should be merged into this one.
 

thetruthsback

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I suspect it will split

1 Bandon/Kinsale
1 Clon/Skibb
1 Bantry/Castletownbere

so which one got in would depend on who was selected on the FG and Labour tickets.

If neither of them puts up a candidate from the Bantry area (and Labour definitely won't), O'Donovan would be favourite.
Hegarty from Bantry might be nominated for FG
 

red leveller

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From what I hear (my oul fella is FF in CSW), FG should take two seats. It is rumoured, apparently, that FG may actually run 3 candidates - a dodgy strategy, but it may work very well for them.

It seems to me that a major issue in CSW is candidate quality. FG lose their incumbents (not that quality was a strong point there), and there is little enough sign of intellectual life in FG down there. Labour have McCarthy, whose attendance and performance in the Seanad are between a joke and a disgrace, and Leahy who is not exactly the reincarnation of Larkin. FF have O'Sullivan in situ and he is between an embarrasment and a joke, while O'Donovan is definitely a clever chap but his political affiliation and ludicrous 'principled stand' on dog breeding render him a little difficult to respect.

I'm not a fan of the idea of a pure list system, but CSW might benefit from having elections raised above neanderthal level.
 

davemcinerney

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davemcinerneysblog.com
Anyone willing to lend a hand?

Hi, I plan on running in this constituency, in the next election. I realise that as an Independent with no track record it will be an uphill battle, still I feel compelled to run as I am sick of the way politics is structured in this Country, it has failed us and unless changed will continue to fail us. It is designed to favour the powers that be and to keep outsiders (the rest of us) out. The system is keeping much better individuals from getting into it; it works for the likes of Jackie Healy Rea and works against the likes of George Lee. So we have to ask ourselves, do we want the Jackie Healy Rea's of this world running our country, or do we want people the likes of George Lee doing it.
I am offering myself as an alternative to the existing politicians that have proved their inadequacies in the past and will continue to do so into the future.
I need help in running; I need groups of motivated people throughout the constituency to help me. Read my blog and if what I say makes sense to you and if you would be willing to lend a hand I would be delighted to hear from you. If change is to happen then it is up to us, all of us to make it happen.

Election 2011
 
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So what differentiates you from other FF-lite? Why and when did you leave the Party? Will you commit to not re-joining the Party?
 

locke

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Hi, I plan on running in this constituency, in the next election. I realise that as an Independent with no track record it will be an uphill battle, still I feel compelled to run as I am sick of the way politics is structured in this Country, it has failed us and unless changed will continue to fail us. It is designed to favour the powers that be and to keep outsiders (the rest of us) out. The system is keeping much better individuals from getting into it; it works for the likes of Jackie Healy Rea and works against the likes of George Lee. So we have to ask ourselves, do we want the Jackie Healy Rea's of this world running our country, or do we want people the likes of George Lee doing it.
I am offering myself as an alternative to the existing politicians that have proved their inadequacies in the past and will continue to do so into the future.
I need help in running; I need groups of motivated people throughout the constituency to help me. Read my blog and if what I say makes sense to you and if you would be willing to lend a hand I would be delighted to hear from you. If change is to happen then it is up to us, all of us to make it happen.

Election 2011
There's more mention of your (former) involvement in Fianna Fail on that site than there is on the average FF politician's!
 

What the Fug

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There's more mention of your (former) involvement in Fianna Fail on that site than there is on the average FF politician's!
At least he admits he comes from the city, think he is being a bit cheekyl calling Ballinhassig county, won't play well down west
 

thetruthsback

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Labour selected Senator Micheal McCarthy as its candidate last night. It's his third time to run, not considered a hard worker his best chance will come on a national Labour tide . If Fine Gael select a candidate from the Bandon area and the Bantry area, Mc Carthy will be squeezed out. Expect Christy O' Sullivan FF to hold his seat. I predict no change: 2 FG and 1FF
 


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