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Electoral College watch - 2020 edition

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,164
Is Schultz going to get Trump re-elected?

As we saw in 2016, its the Electoral College that counts. Heres what the polls are saying so far from the states:

Iowa looks like an evens bet for Trump right now, and a good one if Schultz runs. Right now Schultz is taking more votes there from Democrats.

RealClearPolitics - 2019 Latest Polls

Iowa: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Trump 53, Harris 47 Trump +6
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 52, Warren 48 Trump +4
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 51, Trump 49 Biden +2
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 50, Sanders 49 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson Trump 53, O'Rourke 47 Trump +6
Iowa: Trump vs. Gillibrand Emerson Trump 54, Gillibrand 46 Trump +8
Iowa: Trump vs. Brown Emerson Trump 55, Brown 46 Trump +9
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren vs. Schultz Emerson Trump 49, Warren 40, Schultz 11 Trump +9

Michigan is one of the states that put Trump over the top in 2016. Right now he's traiking all the Dem candidates, though Harris only leads him 5% and Warren by 3%. Schultz isnt in this poll.

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Detroit News/WDIV-TV Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren Detroit News/WDIV-TV Warren 46, Trump 43 Warren +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris Detroit News/WDIV-TV Harris 47, Trump 42 Harris +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders Detroit News/WDIV-TV Sanders 52, Trump 41 Sanders +11
 


midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
5,750
Is Schultz going to get Trump re-elected?

As we saw in 2016, its the Electoral College that counts. Heres what the polls are saying so far from the states:

Iowa looks like an evens bet for Trump right now, and a good one if Schultz runs. Right now Schultz is taking more votes there from Democrats.

RealClearPolitics - 2019 Latest Polls

Iowa: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Trump 53, Harris 47 Trump +6
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 52, Warren 48 Trump +4
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 51, Trump 49 Biden +2
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 50, Sanders 49 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson Trump 53, O'Rourke 47 Trump +6
Iowa: Trump vs. Gillibrand Emerson Trump 54, Gillibrand 46 Trump +8
Iowa: Trump vs. Brown Emerson Trump 55, Brown 46 Trump +9
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren vs. Schultz Emerson Trump 49, Warren 40, Schultz 11 Trump +9

Michigan is one of the states that put Trump over the top in 2016. Right now he's traiking all the Dem candidates, though Harris only leads him 5% and Warren by 3%. Schultz isnt in this poll.

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Detroit News/WDIV-TV Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren Detroit News/WDIV-TV Warren 46, Trump 43 Warren +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris Detroit News/WDIV-TV Harris 47, Trump 42 Harris +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders Detroit News/WDIV-TV Sanders 52, Trump 41 Sanders +11
It's very early for polls of this nature but in balance I would generally expect Iowa to stay GOP and Michigan to flip back to the Dems.
 

Sync

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Joined
Aug 27, 2009
Messages
28,845
It's a good thread, I think people are overly fixed on the national polling depths Trump is busy plumbing. It's about the state polls (With all the caveats that follow them). But in Texas for instance Trump's satisfaction is only 39%, but he's over 10 points clear of Beto in a head to head.

That's the stuff that matters. "Do people like someone else more than Trump". Not just "How much do people dislike Trump".
 

livingstone

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Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
24,494
It's a good thread, I think people are overly fixed on the national polling depths Trump is busy plumbing. It's about the state polls (With all the caveats that follow them). But in Texas for instance Trump's satisfaction is only 39%, but he's over 10 points clear of Beto in a head to head.

That's the stuff that matters. "Do people like someone else more than Trump". Not just "How much do people dislike Trump".
We won't get reliable state level polling for quite some time, so really all we have to go on is national polling on both approval and match ups. Of course it's imperfect and anyone who thinks Trump's somehow guaranteed to lose is speaking nonsense (of course although I've seen a lot of folk on here who claim that's what Trump's opponents think, I've seen very little evidence that anyone seriously thinks beating him will be a walkover).
 

Dame_Enda

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Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,164
RealClearPolitics - 2019 Latest Polls

South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Trump 52, Biden 48 Trump +4
South Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 54, Sanders 46 Trump +8
South Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Trump 56, Harris 44 Trump +12
South Carolina: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 54, Warren 46 Trump +8
South Carolina: Trump vs. Booker Emerson Trump 54, Booker 46 Trump +8
South Carolina: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson Trump 56, O'Rourke 44 Trump +12
South Carolina: Trump vs. Klobuchar Emerson Trump 56, Klobuchar 44 Trump +12
South Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders vs. Schultz Emerson Trump 51, Sanders 42, Schultz 7 Trump +9
South Carolina: Trump vs. Warren vs. Schultz Emerson Trump 53, Warren 41, Schultz 7 Trump +12

Again a Republican must win this state to win the presidency. Its 36% African American so it should theoretically be competitive but for its social conservative White voters.
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
9,699
We won't get reliable state level polling for quite some time, so really all we have to go on is national polling on both approval and match ups. Of course it's imperfect and anyone who thinks Trump's somehow guaranteed to lose is speaking nonsense (of course although I've seen a lot of folk on here who claim that's what Trump's opponents think, I've seen very little evidence that anyone seriously thinks beating him will be a walkover).
At every level, including state level, Trump is polling between 8-10% behind his 2016 figures
As of right now he would be beaten easily.
2020
Who knows, he might come back to sneak it again, or he could be trounced by even wider margins than currently polled
But make no mistake, he is definitely behind his 2016 numbers
 

Dame_Enda

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Messages
53,164
Theres a poll out today mentioned on Meet the Press on NBC that says Trumps net disapproval rating is now 52-46, which is an improvement on January. On the other hand, 48% say they would definitely vote for a Democrat, to 41% for Trump. But in my opinion third parties candidates could again throw the election to Trump. Schultz is consistently taking loads of moderate Dem votes in state level polling to Trumps benefit. Also Justin Amash, a Trump critic and dissident member of the House Freedom Caucus, has not ruled out running so that might hurt Trump.
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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Joined
Nov 14, 2005
Messages
14,898
Theres a poll out today mentioned on Meet the Press on NBC that says Trumps net disapproval rating is now 52-46, which is an improvement on January. On the other hand, 48% say they would definitely vote for a Democrat, to 41% for Trump. But in my opinion third parties candidates could again throw the election to Trump. Schultz is consistently taking loads of moderate Dem votes in state level polling to Trumps benefit. Also Justin Amash, a Trump critic and dissident member of the House Freedom Caucus, has not ruled out running so that might hurt Trump.
A few good articles are out today on that NBC/WSJ poll.

A key that the Dems have to note is:
The NBC/WSJ poll also tested 11 different presidential characteristics.
. . .
The least popular: A Muslim (49 percent are enthusiastic or comfortable — up from 32 percent in 2015), someone over the age of75 (37 percent) and a socialist (25 percent).

And regarding socialism, just 18 percent of all Americans say they view the term positively, versus 50 percent who see it in a negative light.

The numbers for capitalism are almost the exact opposite: 50 percent positive, 19 percent negative.
MEET THE PRESS
NBC News/WSJ poll: 2020 race will be uphill for Trump, but he has strong party loyalty - NBC News


FOX and right wing radio have already had that info for structuring their agitprop way ahead of the election.

FOX's talking heads have already been whipping a frenzy with faux comparisons and hysteria, fostering strawman props of Ocasio Cortez, a black Hispanic, and the new Muslim House Reps for a twofer with dog whistling, etc, whilst running Venezuelan riots and empty shelves in the theatrics and split screens.

For 2004, the GOP overcame the Iraq mess by hyping the crumbling but still majority anti-LGBT sentiments at that time.

The Dems need to learn the lessons of the 2004 campaign to better repel the current smear tactic against their candidates and agendas.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,164
[TR][TD]
New polls just out shows Wisconsin still close unless Biden is the Dem candidate.
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Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden
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Emerson
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Biden 54, Trump 46
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Biden +8
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Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders
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Emerson
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Sanders 52, Trump 48
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Sanders +4
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Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris
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Emerson
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Trump 50, Harris 50
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Tie
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Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren
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Emerson
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Warren 52, Trump 48
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Warren +4
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Wisconsin: Trump vs. O'Rourke
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Emerson
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O'Rourke 51, Trump 49
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O'Rourke +2
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Wisconsin: Trump vs. Klobuchar
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Emerson
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Trump 50, Klobuchar 50
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Tie
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Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden vs. Schultz
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Emerson
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Biden 51, Trump 44, Schultz 4
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Biden +7
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Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders vs. Schultz
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Emerson
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Sanders 48, Trump 46, Schultz 5
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Sanders +2
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patwmcgee

Active member
Joined
Dec 21, 2012
Messages
214
Twitter
patwmcgee
Republicans, right now, feel cautiously optimistic about all of the Midwestern states and NH. Virginia is now an intriguing pick-up possibility with the recent scandal involving the Democratic Gov., Lt. Gov and Attorney General. Arizona is the greatest fear of Trump strategists because of the demonstrating success by Democrats in employing ballot harvesting (i.e. election fraud) in the McSally/Sinema Senate race last November and similar success in Orange County, California. Ballot harvesting is a threat to Republicans anywhere you have early voting and, most importantly, mail in ballots.

I wouldn't pay much attention to the horse race polls right now. Not only have most polls been wrong/skewed heavily Democratic in most states since 2014; at this point, none of the Democrats have been vetted or defined, as they most certainly will be by Republican campaign operatives prior to the 2020 vote. Remember, according to mainstream polls, Trump had an approval rating below 40% when he won in 2016 and he is higher than that now.
 

A Voice

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Joined
Sep 29, 2009
Messages
7,491
Republicans, right now, feel cautiously optimistic about all of the Midwestern states and NH. Virginia is now an intriguing pick-up possibility with the recent scandal involving the Democratic Gov., Lt. Gov and Attorney General. Arizona is the greatest fear of Trump strategists because of the demonstrating success by Democrats in employing ballot harvesting (i.e. election fraud) in the McSally/Sinema Senate race last November and similar success in Orange County, California. Ballot harvesting is a threat to Republicans anywhere you have early voting and, most importantly, mail in ballots.

I wouldn't pay much attention to the horse race polls right now. Not only have most polls been wrong/skewed heavily Democratic in most states since 2014; at this point, none of the Democrats have been vetted or defined, as they most certainly will be by Republican campaign operatives prior to the 2020 vote. Remember, according to mainstream polls, Trump had an approval rating below 40% when he won in 2016 and he is higher than that now.
Woah! I said the same thing and I had the shrieking hyenas Owedtojoy and Livingstone on my tail for days!

They hate hearing that fact so just be careful. :)
 

hiding behind a poster

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Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,597
We won't get reliable state level polling for quite some time, so really all we have to go on is national polling on both approval and match ups. Of course it's imperfect and anyone who thinks Trump's somehow guaranteed to lose is speaking nonsense (of course although I've seen a lot of folk on here who claim that's what Trump's opponents think, I've seen very little evidence that anyone seriously thinks beating him will be a walkover).
Even the match-ups are useless at this stage. The voters know all there is to know about Trump, they know next to nothing about any of the Democratic hopefuls, even Sanders. Unfortunately Dame Edna/FutureTaoiseach thinks voters are swotting up about the various Dems, which they're not. Democrats will start engaging with it when the primary season starts, the wider public when it narrows down and becomes a proper race.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,597
Theres a poll out today mentioned on Meet the Press on NBC that says Trumps net disapproval rating is now 52-46, which is an improvement on January. On the other hand, 48% say they would definitely vote for a Democrat, to 41% for Trump. But in my opinion third parties candidates could again throw the election to Trump. Schultz is consistently taking loads of moderate Dem votes in state level polling to Trumps benefit. Also Justin Amash, a Trump critic and dissident member of the House Freedom Caucus, has not ruled out running so that might hurt Trump.
That's because they're opposing no Democrat nominee, FT.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,597
At every level, including state level, Trump is polling between 8-10% behind his 2016 figures
As of right now he would be beaten easily.
2020
Who knows, he might come back to sneak it again, or he could be trounced by even wider margins than currently polled
But make no mistake, he is definitely behind his 2016 numbers
But the point is that in those polls he's polling against a generic Democrat, and for a Democrat-leaning voter, that generic Democrat has no flaws. But the candidate will be a real person, with good points but also flaws.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Joined
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Messages
48,597
RealClearPolitics - 2019 Latest Polls

South Carolina: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Trump 52, Biden 48 Trump +4
South Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 54, Sanders 46 Trump +8
South Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Trump 56, Harris 44 Trump +12
South Carolina: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 54, Warren 46 Trump +8
South Carolina: Trump vs. Booker Emerson Trump 54, Booker 46 Trump +8
South Carolina: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson Trump 56, O'Rourke 44 Trump +12
South Carolina: Trump vs. Klobuchar Emerson Trump 56, Klobuchar 44 Trump +12
South Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders vs. Schultz Emerson Trump 51, Sanders 42, Schultz 7 Trump +9
South Carolina: Trump vs. Warren vs. Schultz Emerson Trump 53, Warren 41, Schultz 7 Trump +12

Again a Republican must win this state to win the presidency. Its 36% African American so it should theoretically be competitive but for its social conservative White voters.
South Carolina has had a large black population for so long that it also has socially conservative black voters.
 

NYCKY

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Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,150
Even the match-ups are useless at this stage. The voters know all there is to know about Trump, they know next to nothing about any of the Democratic hopefuls, even Sanders. Unfortunately Dame Edna/FutureTaoiseach thinks voters are swotting up about the various Dems, which they're not. Democrats will start engaging with it when the primary season starts, the wider public when it narrows down and becomes a proper race.

I hope we won't be getting breathless updates of polls for the next year. The current poll leader (incidentally, the poll leaders this far out rarely clinch the nomination) hasn't even declared.

It's WAY too early to take any polling seriously.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
Messages
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Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Emerson Biden 39, Sanders 20, Warren 11, Buttigieg 6, O'Rourke 5, Harris 5, Booker 4, Gabbard 3, Gillibrand 2, Yang 1, Castro 1 Biden +19
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 55, Trump 45 Sanders +10
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson O'Rourke 51, Trump 49 O'Rourke +2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Harris 51, Trump 48 Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Warren 52, Trump 48 Warren +4

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls
 

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