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Electoral College watch - 2020 edition

owedtojoy

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46,636
Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Emerson Biden 39, Sanders 20, Warren 11, Buttigieg 6, O'Rourke 5, Harris 5, Booker 4, Gabbard 3, Gillibrand 2, Yang 1, Castro 1 Biden +19
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 55, Trump 45 Sanders +10
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson O'Rourke 51, Trump 49 O'Rourke +2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Harris 51, Trump 48 Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Warren 52, Trump 48 Warren +4

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls
Polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, pitting Trump against O'Rourke, Sanders and Biden, by a company called Firehouse Strategy of Likely voters turned up the following:

In Pennsylvania, Trump beat O'Rourke by 7, was evens with Sanders, and lost to Biden by 7 (percentage points)
In Michigan, Trump beat all three by 9, 1, and 1 respectively
In Wisconsin, Trump lost to all three by 3, 7 and 13 respectively.

So the Battle of the White Male Candidates has advantage mainly to Biden. If he won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he would have ~262 EVs, needing Michigan or Arizona (with maybe opportunity in Florida etc) to win., But that is speculation, Biden may not even be the candidate.

It is true these polls may change dramatically, but they do establish a baseline.
 
Last edited:


Jack Walsh

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9,699
Polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, pitting Trump against O'Rourke, Sanders and Biden, by a company called Firehouse Strategy of Likely voters turned up the following:

In Pennsylvania, Trump beat O'Rourke by 7, was evens with Sanders, and lost to Biden by 7 (percentage points)
In Michigan, Trump best all three by 9, 1, and 1 respectively
In Wisconsin, Trump lost to all three by 3, 7 and 13 respectively.

So the Battle of the White Male Candidates has advantage mainly to Biden. If he won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he would have ~262 EVs, needing Michigan or Arizona (with maybe opportunity in Florida etc) to win., But that is speculation, Biden may not even be the candidate.

It is true these polls may change dramatically, but they do establish a baseline.
Firehouse are not just a GOP pollster, they are a notorious GOP lobbying firm who are employed to bend public opinion on GOP policies.
ie
Lipstick on a Pig purveyors
If Trump isn't leading by at least 10% in any of their survey's he's probably f*cked.
Bin it!
it's worthless
 

hiding behind a poster

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Mar 8, 2005
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48,597
FT, these matchup polls don't matter at this stage. The electorate won't engage properly with the Democratic runners until they know who the likely runner will come from.
 

Polybius

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Once the Dem primaries begin and the candidates start discussing how white people need to pay reparations for slavery and how men should be allowed to go into women's changing rooms then the voters of Michigan will turn back to Trump.
 

Jack Walsh

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Jun 26, 2015
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Once the Dem primaries begin and the candidates start discussing how white people need to pay reparations for slavery and how men should be allowed to go into women's changing rooms then the voters of Michigan will turn back to Trump.

That's hilarious.
Wont have any clout but still funny.

Dems are right to pound this issue though

A poster above says Dems will get consumed with slavery reparations and transgender toilet issues
They won't!

Clearly he has not been watching the new House these last 3 months
They are picking their fights really well, attacking Trump specifically on the issues they know they have overwhelming public support to do so

The public support by a massive 64-29% Trump releasing his tax returns
They are demanding the full release of the Mueller report because they know they have a big majority who supports just that
The public support the Dems on healthcare by a big margin, Dems are pounding it, and Trump has waved the white flag
They are banging the raising of the minimum wage, bingo, they know they have the majority electorate support for it
Ditto, taxing the mega rich at a higher rate
The y have a small edge on immigration, and therefore are playing that more cautiously.

This idea that the Dems are a bunch of dimwits who Trump will squash is badly misplaced faith in fool who cannot even put a coherent tweet together.
The Dems are so far at least, playing it hard and smart.
 

owedtojoy

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I'd welcome a Democratic Party President next year if only the person was not too PC like Obama and Hillary Clinton became. I actually wanted and was glad Trump won last time because of that.
PC = "A Black Man or a Woman"? :rolleyes:

But you are very PC in the way you tell it.
 

Jack Walsh

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Jun 26, 2015
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Now here's a poll to send shivers down the spine of every Republican.
Imagine a rule that electing someone to the most powerful political position on earth must be on the basis they get more votes than their opponent.
Insanity
 

Jack Walsh

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Jun 26, 2015
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9,699
Impressive numbers for Dems
Warren will be very happy, another poll that has her ahead of Harris

Warren will be delighted if she can get to final three and the only woman
She will have a good shot at nomination then as she is a good performer, debater.
 

Dame_Enda

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Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,163
Biden and Sanders both lead Trump 12% in Michigan. Harris, Buttigieg and Warren lead him 3-6%. Margin of error is +-4%.

 

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