- Feb 27, 2010
Polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, pitting Trump against O'Rourke, Sanders and Biden, by a company called Firehouse Strategy of Likely voters turned up the following:Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Emerson Biden 39, Sanders 20, Warren 11, Buttigieg 6, O'Rourke 5, Harris 5, Booker 4, Gabbard 3, Gillibrand 2, Yang 1, Castro 1 Biden +19
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 55, Trump 45 Sanders +10
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson O'Rourke 51, Trump 49 O'Rourke +2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Harris 51, Trump 48 Harris +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Warren 52, Trump 48 Warren +4
RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls
In Pennsylvania, Trump beat O'Rourke by 7, was evens with Sanders, and lost to Biden by 7 (percentage points)
In Michigan, Trump beat all three by 9, 1, and 1 respectively
In Wisconsin, Trump lost to all three by 3, 7 and 13 respectively.
So the Battle of the White Male Candidates has advantage mainly to Biden. If he won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he would have ~262 EVs, needing Michigan or Arizona (with maybe opportunity in Florida etc) to win., But that is speculation, Biden may not even be the candidate.
It is true these polls may change dramatically, but they do establish a baseline.