Electoral College watch - 2020 edition



NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
14,086

Sleepless nights ahead for GOP
The GOP can sleep easy tonight given the Nevada Governors veto. I am sure they slept easy last night too though. Does anyone think this will ever become law? It's extremely dubious that it's even constitutional. There is a reason why it's only blue states that have adopted this, and California, NY and Illinois account for 55% of the 189 electoral votes on board so far. The compact has probably gotten as far as it will go.

States trying an end run around the electoral college without Congressional approval. I doubt that even a SCOTUS loaded with liberals would approve this, without Congressional approval it's unenforceable.

In the unlikely event that the states ever did get enough EC votes on board for it to take effect, what do you think would happen if a Democrat won the EC vote but lost the popular vote? How many of them would stay? to reject the will of their states voters. They would reject it quicker than you can say, we need to respect the Constitution and historical precedent.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
59,083

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
59,083
The GOP can sleep easy tonight given the Nevada Governors veto. I am sure they slept easy last night too though. Does anyone think this will ever become law? It's extremely dubious that it's even constitutional. There is a reason why it's only blue states that have adopted this, and California, NY and Illinois account for 55% of the 189 electoral votes on board so far. The compact has probably gotten as far as it will go.

States trying an end run around the electoral college without Congressional approval. I doubt that even a SCOTUS loaded with liberals would approve this, without Congressional approval it's unenforceable.

In the unlikely event that the states ever did get enough EC votes on board for it to take effect, what do you think would happen if a Democrat won the EC vote but lost the popular vote? How many of them would stay? to reject the will of their states voters. They would reject it quicker than you can say, we need to respect the Constitution and historical precedent.
The Nevada governor vetoed that law.

 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
59,083

owedtojoy

Moderator
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
52,517
mPox3.png


270ToWin are producing their first maps - they call this one the 2020 Consensus Map, generally by majority of the people producing such maps.

This is what they call their Expanded Battleground map:

P6NVk.png


I notice Ohio is no longer considered a battleground, but leaning Republican. Virginia, a Southern state that voted for GW Bush, Dole, GHW Bush, Reagan, Ford and Nixon, is now leaning Democrat.

Note the Maine and Nebraska 2nd Congressional districts are considered Battlegrounds, and up for grabs.

I think the Consensus Map is closer to reality, and the candidates are going to be like Pink Floyd "running over the same old ground".

How I wish, how I wish you were here
We're just two lost souls
Swimming in a fish bowl
Year after year
Running over the same old ground
And how we found
The same old fears
Wish you were here


"Wish You Were Here" (David Gilmour, Roger Waters)

 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
59,083

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
14,086

These polls said Trump behind 13% in Wisconsin, 16% in Pennsylvania, 7% in Florida and only 2% ahead in Texas, Note this was March.
Indeed, March is ancient in terms of polling but still far too early to take polls seriously, particularly given the crowded Democratic primary.

Good article from the Hill here.

Landslide polls spark angst: These geniuses saw Clinton as 'unstoppable'

Democrats and Republicans alike are skeptical of early polls predicting a landslide victory for Democrat Joe Biden over President Trump on Election Day 2020.
“These same geniuses all predicted that Hillary Clinton was unstoppable and inevitable,” said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic pollster.
If it was 12 months from now and four months from the election, ok by then you have a nominee and a more defined campaign on both sides but as of now, this polling is just noise.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
59,083
NC is a must win state for any successful GOP presidential candidate. Some polls from the state today: Trump is behind Biden by 3% and behind Sanders by 2%. Trump leads Buttigieg, Harris and Warren by 3%, 1% and 2% respectively. A Florida poll by St Pete polls finds a tie between Trump and Biden on 47%.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
59,083

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
12,183
Huge poll for Biden, and he appears to have regained almost all lost ground post Harris attack
I repeat, above all other considerations, rank and file Dems will nominate the candidate who most likely beats Trump.
Right now, that person is Biden, and by quite some distance
Beating Trump in Ohio by 8% is huge and would indicate Biden is ahead of Trump in PA and Michigan by 15% or more.
Put simply, any Dem candidate that would beat Trump by 8% in Ohio in 2020, would take the White House in a massive landslide.
 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
26,621
Huge poll for Biden, and he appears to have regained almost all lost ground post Harris attack
I repeat, above all other considerations, rank and file Dems will nominate the candidate who most likely beats Trump.
Right now, that person is Biden, and by quite some distance
Beating Trump in Ohio by 8% is huge and would indicate Biden is ahead of Trump in PA and Michigan by 15% or more.
Put simply, any Dem candidate that would beat Trump by 8% in Ohio in 2020, would take the White House in a massive landslide.
The bigger news I would think is that Trump can't muster more than a one point lead in Ohio - a state he won by 8% in 2016 - even against a die hard socialist, an wonkish ex-Harvard professor, a gay Mayor and a liberal black woman from California. Biden doing well in Ohio isn't news. Trump not trouncing liberal Democrats here is.
 

owedtojoy

Moderator
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
52,517
Trump has a simple strategy for 2020 "What I had in 2016, I will hold in 2020".

Almost. Apparently, knowing he is under pressure in the Rust Belt, he is going to push into Minnesota.


And, by the way, Minnesota is far from a done deal for Democrats. Clinton only won it by 1.5%.

 
Last edited:

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
12,183
Trump has a simple strategy for 2020 "What I had in 2016, I will hold in 2020".

Almost. Apparently, knowing he is under pressure in the Rust Belt, he is going to push into Minnesota.


And, by the way, Minnesota is far from a done deal for Democrats. Clinton only won it by 1.5%.


On current numbers, he'd be beaten by up to 20% in Minnesota

As for replacing Ilhan in House, have a look at this QAnon nutter and clepto sh*t show the GOP were lining up to try to dislodge her


GOP 2019 Trump version in all its glory

Dems know with a weakening economic backdrop Trump is likley ****ed if he just keeps being Trump, but are cleverly saying the opposite "oh he will be hard to beat, his base etc"

They want him to continue to being a nutter that over 50% of Americans despise

Trump is like Buster Douglas, pulls off a big upset and decides the best way to keep winning is eating even more quarter pounders
If you are next up to unseat him, you want him to keep downing the quarter ponders and his training schedule to be a shambles while at the same time publicly say "he's in great shape and we have a huge fight on our hands"
 

Jack Walsh

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 26, 2015
Messages
12,183
Trump freaking out on twitter over his lousy numbers in FOX poll, accusing them of treachery

.@FoxNews is at it again. So different from what
they used to be during the 2016 Primaries, & before - Proud Warriors!


Nutjob and his nutjob followers

FOX poll also pointed outs something that will terrify Trump camp
Biden wins GOP votes

Any slippage in GOP vote to even sub 90% will be likely fatal
FOX suggest Biden will do just that
A small but not insignificant minority of GOP'ers who viscerally hate Trump will grit their teeth and vote for him v Harris and Warren and Sanders but will actually vote for Biden
 
Last edited:

midlander12

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 29, 2008
Messages
6,453
The bigger news I would think is that Trump can't muster more than a one point lead in Ohio - a state he won by 8% in 2016 - even against a die hard socialist, an wonkish ex-Harvard professor, a gay Mayor and a liberal black woman from California. Biden doing well in Ohio isn't news. Trump not trouncing liberal Democrats here is.
Yes that'd be my take on it too. 'Elderly white conservative male doing well in Ohio against slightly younger white far-right male' - who'd have thunk?

Biden is certainly still ahead of the Dem pack at this early stage, though with a smaller plurality nationally - generally in 20's now rather than the 30's, except in the Morning Consult polls and yesterday's Fox News. The fact that both Sanders and Warren are still in the race splits the 'progressive' vote and in flatters his lead. When Sanders eventually drops out, after the early primaries, and endorses Warren, it will be all to play for.

 

livingstone

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2004
Messages
26,621
Trump freaking out on twitter over his lousy numbers in FOX poll, accusing them of treachery

.@FoxNews is at it again. So different from what
they used to be during the 2016 Primaries, & before - Proud Warriors!


Nutjob and his nutjob followers

FOX poll also pointed outs something that will terrify Trump camp
Biden wins GOP votes

Any slippage in GOP vote to even sub 90% will be likely fatal
FOX suggest Biden will do just that
A small but not insignificant minority of GOP'ers who viscerally hate Trump will grit their teeth and vote for him v Harris and Warren and Sanders but will actually vote for Biden
Of course a small point but just points to his lies. He claims Fox polls had him losing big time to HRC in 2016. In fact, the final Fox poll had him down by 4 points, which was within the margin of error of the final result.
 


Top Bottom