Electoral College Watch

Dame_Enda

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This thread is to follow developments that might stop Trump being elected after all. Assuming Trump's win's in the Rust Belt are upheld in time for the "safe harbour" deadline (Dec 13), he will have on paper 306 electors to her 232. 36 GOP defectors would then be needed to swing the election to the House of Representatives, which would have to choose from the top 3 in the Electoral Vote.

Texas GOP elector Chris Suprun has announced he won't vote for Trump. Another one Art Sisneros has resigned after saying the same and he is due to be replaced. Suprun had previous been reported as saying he wouldnt support Trump, then went on Fox to deny it, and is now against again.

8 Democrat electors are organising a movement called "Hamilton electors" (named after Alexander Hamilton) to try to block Trump by getting Republicans to support John Kasich. Chris Suprun has said hes leaning towards Kasich. However there are reports today in Politico.com that the movement has met with Clinton staffers.

...Bret Chiafolo, from Washington state and co-founder of the Hamilton electors - a group named after founding father Alexander Hamilton - commented that the "founding fathers made it very clear that electors should not elect an unfit president. That's what I and the other Hamilton electors are trying to do".
One such elector who has already revealed her plans to vote against the wishes of those she represents is 19-year-old Levi Guerra from Vancouver, Washington. She told the Guardian that her conscience will not allow her to vote the way she is expected to. Guerra has become the seventh elector in recent days to publicly state she plans to vote against the wishes of those she represents.
As one of 12 electoral college representatives for Washington, Guerra claimed she will go against her fellow voters and instead of placing a vote for Hillary Clinton - Clinton won the Washington vote by a margin of 53% to 37% for Trump - she will submit a vote for a "different Republican candidate". It is a vote for the Republican Party to put forward another presidential candidate and to amend the status of Trump as president-elect.
Guerra said: "I stand behind Hamilton electors. I promised those who elected me that I would do everything I could to keep Donald Trump out of office.
"I'm only 19 and this is my first time being involved in politics, but I hope that my willingness to put my country before my party will show that my generation cares about all Americans."
She concluded that the electors are pledging to "put America first" and that means doing what they believe is right for the country as a whole...
 
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NYCKY

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What is the status of the electoral voters if the recount in a certain state isn't finished?
 

Dame_Enda

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What is the status of the electoral voters if the recount in a certain state isn't finished?
Under the safe harbour law from the late 19th century, they might not be allowed to vote. Safe harbour requires the elector slate to be certified by 35 days after election ie Dec 13th this year. The law was invented because in the 19th century, sometimes states would send more than one slate.
 

NYCKY

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Under the safe harbour law from the late 19th century, they might not be allowed to vote.
OK but right now the Michigan AG has petitioned the court to stop the recount and the Pennsylvania one has been blocked (that decision is also being challenged).

Stein would need all three states to have their electors blocked from attending the meeting next week. Any combination of two states would not be enough to stop him getting an electoral college majority. That assumes that they wouldn't be allowed to vote while undergoing a recount.
 

Dame_Enda

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OK but right now the Michigan AG has petitioned the court to stop the recount and the Pennsylvania one has been blocked (that decision is also being challenged).

Stein would need all three states to have their electors blocked from attending the meeting next week. Any combination of two states would not be enough to stop him getting an electoral college majority. That assumes that they wouldn't be allowed to vote while undergoing a recount.
Its not enough to come first in the Electoral College. To win there you must have 270 EVs. If all three are blocked from the E.C. by "safe-harbour" law, Trump only leads 260-232 and it goes to the House.
 

NYCKY

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Its not enough to come first in the Electoral College. To win there you must have 270 EVs. If all three are blocked from the E.C. by "safe-harbour" law, Trump only leads 260-232 and it goes to the House.
I know that but right now Trump is at 306 electoral votes. Pennsylvania has 20, Michigan 16 and Wisconsin 10 and even if one state has electoral voters that can vote when the electoral college convenes, that he will get to 270.
 

Dame_Enda

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I know that but right now Trump is at 306 electoral votes. Pennsylvania has 20, Michigan 16 and Wisconsin 10 and even if one state has electoral voters that can vote when the electoral college convenes, that he will get to 270.
PA only included he has 280 but actually 279 given Chris Suprun defection.
WI only included he has 270 - but effectively 269 which throws election to the House of Representatives
MI only he has 276 but actually 275 for same reason.

Roque de la Fuente is pushing for recounts in Nevada and Florida (Trump won Florida by 150,000).
 
D

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How much is the recount in Michigan costing?
How much of that burden lies with the state?
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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This is all theatre. Even if a handful of EC votes become faithless, it's not going to be enough. The GOP EC voters won't pick HRC at all, never mind enough of them. If enough faithless EC votes would happen to deny Trump 270 but don't also cast for HRC, the House picks the winner from the top 3 finishers. I highly doubt enough GOP House members will defect to pick HRC or Johnson, so it's going to be Trump anyway.
 
D

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This is all theatre. Even if a handful of EC votes become faithless, it's not going to be enough. The GOP EC voters won't pick HRC at all, never mind enough of them. If enough faithless EC votes would happen to deny Trump 270 but don't also cast for HRC, the House picks the winner from the top 3 finishers. I highly doubt enough GOP House members will defect to pick HRC or Johnson, so it's going to be Trump anyway.
Expensive theatre, though.
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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Expensive theatre, though.
Which makes it certifiable...in another way, yet again. I think the whole election system needs to be scrapped from House to POTUS to reflect fairer and more contemporary realities of the US, but so long as the archaic, imbalanced and nutty system continues....

First, you should have to be a POTUS candidate that crossed a minimum competitive threshold to have standing to even request a recount. Stein with 1% running a vanity spoiler campaign? FFS...FO already with herself.

Second, there should be sanctions for filing challenges without actual probable cause that a different result might result. The margins in WI, MI, and PA don't indicate a likelihood of a different result with a recount. Florida POTUS race 2000? Okay. Minnesota Senate race 2006? Okay. Not here though. They were small but significant enough tallies to keep them outside automatic recounts.

Someone like her simply shouldn't be permitted to tilt at windmills for show and/or make bare allegations and cite crackpot.com claims and be entertained. As you noted, it costs too much time and dime to entertain frivolity and mischief. Serious cases only...
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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Did some investigating...

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/MISOS/bulletins/1763ed6

That's what Jill Stein had to pay to initiate a recount. Seems it could cost the Michiganders $4 million. I wonder how many water pipes you could replace for $4 million.
Like she gives a toss. The thing about her is that she ran a vanity spoiler campaign. The Libertarians are a different breed, a legitimate third way of ideology and party optioning. All the Greens have done is play the spoiler to Gore and HRC, hard lefties that just love sticking it to the Dems for not being 'pure enough' to suit their egos and fanaticism.
Green Party candidate Jill Stein got more votes than Trump’s victory margin in 3 key states
That's another reason IMO why Stein is doing this besides more vanity theatre and fundraising. She doesn't want to get tagged as the 'morning regrets' and spoiler like Nader did (she will, and that's her vanity again). Fourth, she's prone to conspiracy theories anyway so this one is perfect for her.
 

Dame_Enda

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Its just emerged that 87 optical scanner machines (that count the paper votes) broke down on polling day in Detroit, resulting in 59% of votes being unrecountable due to a discrepancy.
 

hiding behind a poster

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None of this is gonna happen. He'll be elected with as near to 306 votes as makes no difference.
 

O'Sullivan Bere

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Its just emerged that 87 optical scanner machines (that count the paper votes) broke down on polling day in Detroit, resulting in 59% of votes being unrecountable due to a discrepancy.
If if that were so, and then let's say HRC actually won MI. Hell, let's say HRC also won WI.

PA is still the trick. In PA, the difference is 47,755 votes. It would still be Trump by 280-257 on the EC tally. That's why I still ask...where's the distinctions with a difference?
 


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