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Electroral College Forecasts


Joined
Aug 6, 2007
Messages
22,911
Breaking this out separately to get people to forecast overall Electoral College result in Presidential Election......

My prediction is

Romney 271
Obama 267
 

harshreality

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 14, 2011
Messages
2,688
Is that based on a Romney win in Ohio?

If so then I would agree with your forecast based on the last set of figures I have seen but would be anxious to review figures from the last few days.
 

Dame_Enda

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Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
52,093
Obama 277
Romney 261

Map I made on RCP today:



BTW early voting has been called off in NC because of Hurricane Sandy. And the SoS there is Dem so it's not opportunism.

I'd like if people could use the Print Screen button to make their own maps and post them here. You need to paste after you press print screen e.g. MS Paint.

I'm factoring in Hurricane Sandy as a suppressant of Obama votes among minorities in the swing states, especially NC, NH, FL, VA and PA and maybe eastern Ohio.
 
Last edited:

FloatingVoterTralee

Well-known member
Joined
May 8, 2009
Messages
997
Obama 281
Romney 257

Like Dame Edna, that was even with giving Romney all the likely breaks, except New Hampshire. Print Screen won't work, but map essentially like above.
 

firefly123

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Dec 8, 2009
Messages
28,158
I've a tenner on at 9-1 that Obama will win the electoral college whilst Romney gets the popular vote. I intend on taking wifey out for a nice dinner if I win so I'm going for a very close Obama win. 271 will do nicely thank you. Although I imagine lots of hanging chadiness to occur before then.
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
52,093
Obama 281
Romney 257

Like Dame Edna, that was even with giving Romney all the likely breaks, except New Hampshire. Print Screen won't work, but map essentially like above.
You press Print Screen. Then open MS Paint and select "Paste" and save the pic. Then upload the pic to an image hosting website and place link here. :)

By the way 270towin.com seem to be using the 2008 E.C. state figures so I recommend using the one on RCP instead.
 

Keith-M

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Joined
Jul 24, 2007
Messages
15,779
Website
www.allkindsofeverything.ie
I've a tenner on at 9-1 that Obama will win the electoral college whilst Romney gets the popular vote. I intend on taking wifey out for a nice dinner if I win so I'm going for a very close Obama win. 271 will do nicely thank you. Although I imagine lots of hanging chadiness to occur before then.
Where did you get that bet, it's a very possible outcome, attractive at lower odds.
 

cogar

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Joined
Sep 17, 2011
Messages
7,444
This is very interesting and a good post. Save me the agony - how many are in play? And are the ones in play generally accepted as being in play by both sides. And when will we get the result? Thank you.
 

Dame_Enda

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Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
52,093
All these 'predictions' point towards one thing:

Its wide open right now....

BTW - how often in the recent past has a candidate won the PV

- but lost in the EC?:oops:
1828, 1876, 1888 and 2000.
 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,098
1828, 1876, 1888 and 2000.

The only one of these that is really comparable to today is 2000. In the 1800s women didn't have the vote and while blacks may have nominally had the vote in 1876 and 1888, Jim Crow laws made sure most of them got nowhere near a polling station.
 

Keith-M

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 24, 2007
Messages
15,779
Website
www.allkindsofeverything.ie
Obama 277
Romney 261

Map I made on RCP today:



BTW early voting has been called off in NC because of Hurricane Sandy. And the SoS there is Dem so it's not opportunism.

I'd like if people could use the Print Screen button to make their own maps and post them here. You need to paste after you press print screen e.g. MS Paint.

I'm factoring in Hurricane Sandy as a suppressant of Obama votes among minorities in the swing states, especially NC, NH, FL, VA and PA and maybe eastern Ohio.
This would be my forecast with one small but key difference. I would lean towards Romney talking Wisconsin, and that swings ten points and the win to the Republicans. The momentum there has been towards Romney and the last poll was a tie.
 

NYCKY

Moderator
Joined
Apr 17, 2010
Messages
13,098
This would be my forecast with one small but key difference. I would lean towards Romney talking Wisconsin, and that swings ten points and the win to the Republicans. The momentum there has been towards Romney and the last poll was a tie.
That would be my take on it also but I need to study the polls a bit more before making an actual prediction.
 

Spanner Island

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 22, 2011
Messages
24,203
I've a tenner on at 9-1 that Obama will win the electoral college whilst Romney gets the popular vote. I intend on taking wifey out for a nice dinner if I win so I'm going for a very close Obama win. 271 will do nicely thank you. Although I imagine lots of hanging chadiness to occur before then.
Are they seriously still using chads after the 2000 debacle?
 
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