Encore une fois: French Assembly elections, 2017



hollandia

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Deadlock

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How many constituencies in total, and are the seats elected on a PR or FPTP system. For clarity.
There are 577 seats in the National Assembly. Representatives (one per constituency) are elected by a two round FPTP system, similar to run-off votes in the US. The two top scoring candidates getting less than an absolute majority in round one, face off in round two, similar to the Presidential vote.
 
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jmcc

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So to what extent is En Marche just a rebrand?
 

petaljam

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PS (Hollande's old party, I think)?
Well we don't know anything till we see who and how many of them get into the Assembly and who gets the main posts. But Modem (Bayrou) look like they're in a better position to influence things than any ex PS members. This thing with Valls is something of a poison chalice for Macron, but I can't see him getting a top job unless they're stuck!

Taubira, Hidalgo and Aubry are setting up a new party, that could be a genuine alternative to the PS.
 

petaljam

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I don't think Macron was ever really a socialist, he was Hollandes attempt at modernizing, à la New Labour.
As for whether he'll manage to go much further than Hollande ever intended, I think it all depends on whether there is more to him than a showman.
Not sure yet.
 

petaljam

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Breaking news, sort of : first problem, Bayrou isn't happy at all with the list. At all.
 

Deadlock

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Taubira, Hidalgo and Aubry are setting up a new party, that could be a genuine alternative to the PS.
Three strong politicians there. I hope they can agree a single leader between them if that's true, and not go down the Social Democrats route here.

Anne Hidalgo is the current Mayor of Paris, Christiane Taubira was a former Minister of Justice under the Ayrault Government, and Martine Aubry is Mayor of Lille, a former Minister for Labour under Jospin (I think) and a daughter of Jacques Delors, former EU Commission President and bete noir to Margaret Thatcher.
 

petaljam

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All three have a very strong record, not always uncontroversial - far from it.
Aubry in particular is famous for having pushed the 35 hour week into law, and Taubira resigned from her post as Minister of justice over Hollande's determination to change the Constitution over nationality.
 

Breanainn

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Breaking news, sort of : first problem, Bayrou isn't happy at all with the list. At all.
Not sure how accurate the Wiki article on the elections is, but it claims MoDem struck a deal whereby it would have 90 candidates on the list, of whom 50 were considered "safe seats"?
 

petaljam

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Not sure how accurate the Wiki article on the elections is, but it claims MoDem struck a deal whereby it would have 90 candidates on the list, of whom 50 were considered "safe seats"?
I haven't checked the details but I gather the problem is that Bayrou says the agreement hasn't been respected.
 

flavirostris

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I predict En Marche will bomb. Most of Macron's votes were just anti Le Pen votes.

He was voted in negatively.
 

midlander12

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There are 577 seats in the National Assembly. Representatives (one per constituency) are elected by a two round FPTP system, similar to run-off votes in the US. The two top scoring candidates getting less than an absolute majority in round one, face off in round two, similar to the Presidential vote.
Actually I'm not sure it's quite as simple as that. I think any candidate with more than 12.5% in the first round can go forward to the second round (this may be 12.5% of the total electorate?). In the past, the old left and right always lined up behind the strongest candidate from their side, meaning it was nearly always a two-horse race - they also sometimes joined forces to keep the FN out if they qualified. This time, I imagine there will be little or none of that, and a lot more three or even four-cornered races. In any event, regardless of the number of candidates, it's FTPT in the second round, as far as I know.
 

Breanainn

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Harris poll: 9-11 May

En Marche 29% (+3)
Les Republicains 20% (-2)
FN 20% (-2)
France Insoumise 14% (+1)
Socialists 7% (-1)
Greens 3% (-)
Debout La France 3% (-)
Communists 2% (-)
Lutte Ouvriere 2% (+1)
 

Deadlock

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Actually I'm not sure it's quite as simple as that. I think any candidate with more than 12.5% in the first round can go forward to the second round (this may be 12.5% of the total electorate?). In the past, the old left and right always lined up behind the strongest candidate from their side, meaning it was nearly always a two-horse race - they also sometimes joined forces to keep the FN out if they qualified. This time, I imagine there will be little or none of that, and a lot more three or even four-cornered races. In any event, regardless of the number of candidates, it's FTPT in the second round, as far as I know.
T'as raison! Apologies P.ie. The error was mine, and Midlander12 is perfectly correct. The first round can certainly see more than 2 candidates going forward to Round 2. Thanks Midlander12.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017
 

Breanainn

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The FN is apparently conducting an internal debate about whether to accept the euro (and, by implication, the EU). The Le Pen camp consider that the currency position directly contributed to the post-debate widening of poll margins, while Philippot would form his own party should any compromise occur. If such a shift occurs, it would seem that the only significant differences with the Republicans would be on immigration and Islam.

https://oeilsurlefront.liberation.fr/les-idees/2017/05/12/sur-l-euro-la-querelle-monte-au-front-national_1569082
 

midlander12

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T'as raison! Apologies P.ie. The error was mine, and Midlander12 is perfectly correct. The first round can certainly see more than 2 candidates going forward to Round 2. Thanks Midlander12.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017
Vous etes bienvenu. Actually thank you also for checking that, because I hadn't before I posted! I'm far from an expert on French politics, but I think this legislative election is going to be a lot more interesting that the presidential walk-over.
 


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