End of the road for UKIP?

Prof Honeydew

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Yesterday's by-election to replace David Cameron as MP for Witney should have been an opportunity for UKIP to confirm itself as a serious force in English politics. With Labour on the ropes and by-elections always producing an anti-government swing, their candidate was in an ideal position to capture opposition sentiment in one of the safest Tory constituencies in Westminster.

Instead, UKIP's share of vote imploded, down over 60% to the marginal level of 3.5% and way behind the Lib Dems and Labour as all of its gains since 2011 were reversed.

Maybe there were local factors involved but this performance suggests that it is no longer a significant force in English politics now that the Brexit result has re-established the Tories as the voice of Little Britain and UKIP's farcical leadership contests since the referendum have confirmed suspicions that it is no longer a serious political party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witney_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Robert Courts 17,313 45.0 -15.2
Liberal Democrat Liz Leffman 11,611 30.2 +23.5
Labour Duncan Enright 5,765 15.0 -2.2
Green Larry Sanders 1,363 3.5 -1.5
UKIP Kendrick "Dickie" Bird 1,354 3.5 -5.6
Monster Raving Loony Mad Hatter 129 0.3
Eccentric Party Lord Toby Jug 59 0.2
Independent Adam Knight 27 0.1
Bus-Pass Elvis Party David Bishop 61 0.2
English Democrats Winston McKenzie 52 0.1
National Health Action Helen Salisbury 433 1.1
One Love Party Emilia Arno 44 0.1
Independent Daniel Skidmore 151 0.4
Independent Nicholas Ward 93 0.2
Majority 5,702 14.8 -28.2
Turnout 38,492 46.8 -26.5
 


Socratus O' Pericles

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But sure they've got the Brexit through, they'll start rounding up the immigrants soon.
 

petaljam

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Maybe there were local factors involved but this performance suggests that it is no longer a significant force in English politics now that the Brexit result has re-established the Tories as the voice of Little Britain and UKIP's farcical leadership contests since the referendum have confirmed suspicions that it is no longer a serious political party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witney_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
No longer? It never was, it was only ever based on attracting the malcontents with simplistic "solutions" that they had no intention of ever having to test, because they didn't actually think they'd ever be put in that position. Being eternally in opposition is a lot more comfortable.

Unfortunately for all of us, the fallout will have to dealt with all the same. Just not by them. And I'm sure they're privately delighted about that.
 
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Eh?

Not quite.

That constituency voted to remain in the EU. They are hardly going to vote UKIP now.

Turnout was also nearly 20,000 down on the General Election, simply put - People didn't turn out to vote.

The Conservatives were 3 times lower than UKIP with their 2015 turn out 15% down, whilst UKIP were just 5% lower. Maybe you should have started a thread if the conservatives were finished?
 

Prof Honeydew

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Ironic that Cameron used the referendum to head off UKIP and then the by-election caused by Brexit blowing up in his face resulted in finishing off UKIP.
 

euryalus

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Dickie Bird, the UKIP candidate, was a no-hoper who mounted a poor campaign, and received very help from his party.The Liberal Democrats, in contrast, campaigned relentlessly.
 

Socratus O' Pericles

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Dickie Bird, the UKIP candidate, was a no-hoper who mounted a poor campaign, and received very help from his party.The Liberal Democrats, in contrast, campaigned relentlessly.
Do UKIP, nationally, have more than a handful of no-hopers?
 

petaljam

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Dickie Bird, the UKIP candidate, was a no-hoper who mounted a poor campaign, and received very help from his party.The Liberal Democrats, in contrast, campaigned relentlessly.
Yeah, which sort of proves my point. Assuming they had any possible alternative, and that this is not just a definition of the party in general.
 

Prof Honeydew

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Eh?

Not quite.

That constituency voted to remain in the EU. They are hardly going to vote UKIP now.

Turnout was also nearly 20,000 down on the General Election, simply put - People didn't turn out to vote.
46.3% voted to leave. You'd expect UKIP to pick up more than one fourteenth of that vote.
 
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46.3% voted to leave. You'd expect UKIP to pick up more than one fourteenth of that vote.
But UKIP only picked up 5,000 votes in that area in 2015, they were hardly going to break through in that area anyhow, UKIP are concentrating on the Labour North, not rich Conservative territory.

The real question should be, the return of the Lib Dems, or why the Conservatives are 15% down?

Its a By election and nobody really cares, hence the reason why people didn't vote, hence the reason turnout is down 20,000.
 

Prof Honeydew

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But UKIP only picked up 5,000 votes in that area in 2015, they were hardly going to break through in that area anyhow, UKIP are concentrating on the Labour North, not rich Conservative territory.

The real question should be, the return of the Lib Dems, or why the Conservatives are 15% down?

Its a By election and nobody really cares, hence the reason why people didn't vote, hence the reason turnout is down 20,000.
UKIP lost 4,000 of their 5,000 votes between the general election and yesterday.

While most by-elections mightn't matter a huge amount in the overall political context, they're a big deal for opposition parties. The Lib Dems poured everything into Witney, the Tories tried to minimise their losses and Labour tried to shore up its vote but UKIP's inability to run any sort of a coherent campaign to remind voters that it remains a serious presence on the landscape suggests that it's falling apart over childish ego-obsessed vendettas.
 

GDPR

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As a national party, contesting national elections, UKIP was never anything more than a Trojan Horse for the Tories.
 
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UKIP lost 4,000 of their 5,000 votes between the general election and yesterday.

While most by-elections mightn't matter a huge amount in the overall political context, they're a big deal for opposition parties. The Lib Dems poured everything into Witney, the Tories tried to minimise their losses and Labour tried to shore up its vote but UKIP's inability to run any sort of a coherent campaign to remind voters that it remains a serious presence on the landscape suggests that it's falling apart over childish ego-obsessed vendettas.
And the Conservatives lost nearly 15,000 with Labour losing nearly 6000.

The only party who did well was the Lib Dems, but with Turnout down 20,000 the figures are somewhat skewed.
 

Spanner Island

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UKIP keep trying desperately to tell themselves and Britain that they have a purpose... but they really don't... not any more after Brexit... which other than keeping the UK out of the €uro, was their raison d'etre.

They should pack up as a political party cos they're going nowhere fast.

Good to see the Lib Dems making a bit of a comeback... something which has been inevitable given the ructions in British politics over the last year or so.

I predict the Lib Dems will make further ground as time goes on and as long as Corbyn and his Momentum buddies continue to f*** up Labour.
 

former wesleyan

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Creepy fascists lose their deposits in the Joe Cox by-election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/21/labour-tracy-brabin-batley-and-spen-byelection-witney-robert-court?CMP=share_btn_tw


Brabin’s acceptance speech – which included a warm tribute to Cox, who died after being shot and stabbed outside her constituency office in June – was greeted by noisy heckling from supporters of some of the defeated candidates, who all lost their £500 deposits after failing to reach 5% of the vote.
 

Prof Honeydew

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The French Poujadistes came from nowhere in 1953 to win 13% of the vote in the 1956 general election on a platform of xenophobia, anti-inellectualism and anti-big government only to disappear off the map two years later. Would their electoral path be the template for UKIP and the emergence of leaders like Donald Trump?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poujade

Btw, the last survivor of the 56 Poujadist deputies elected to the National Assembly is Jean-Marie le Pen.
 

DT123

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Turnout was down 27% and the Tory vote fell by about the same.

Big whoop.

Massively safe Tory seat in a by election. Tories decided not to bother voting and were totally vindicated.
 

ffc

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The Tories have gone full UKIP. In fact they have gone even further. David Davies and Liam Fox are the most right wing loons to get their hands on the levers of power in modern British history.
It's gonna end in tears.
 

DT123

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The Tories have gone full UKIP. In fact they have gone even further. David Davies and Liam Fox are the most right wing loons to get their hands on the levers of power in modern British history.
It's gonna end in tears.

It already has ended in tears.

Remainers haven't stopped crying since the referendum.
 

midlander12

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The referendum result somewhat deprived UKIP of their raison d'etre though of course that could change if there's any hedging regarding Brexit. For the moment the Tories have reappropriated the Eurosceptic vote. Witney is not the most Eurosceptic of areas so UKIP had little chance here.

Of more interest in that Lib Dems appear to have made a comeback as the local party of opposition in Tory areas of England, a trend confirmed by local council by-elections. However, they are miles away from being any serious challenge. Labour are fading away.
 


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