• It has come to our attention that some users may have been "banned" when they tried to change their passwords after the site was hacked due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software. This would have occurred around the end of February and does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you believe you were affected by this, please contact a staff member or use the Contact us link at the bottom of any forum page.

Equity Bourses : what's going on?


wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,011
Does anyone know why equity markets are rallying and rallying to near historic highs?
Maybe confidence in the U.S.? My CRH shares are finally out of the red:lol:
 

Sister Mercedes

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2011
Messages
20,663
Central Bank printing has pushed Bond Yields to historic lows, so money has to go somewhere else. While Doomsday merchants like Soros and Roubini are saying the worst is over. So it's a combination of complacency and cheap money. It could last a long time, but I reckon the US market tops out this year. Equity bull markets last an average of 42 months, and this one began 46 months ago.
 

EUrJokingMeRight

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 28, 2009
Messages
11,840
You might as well ask an eight ball these days.
 

Ribeye

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 12, 2011
Messages
26,306
In nominal terms folks, it's just the truckloads of funny money looking for a home,

How's to Dow lookin when measured in terms of Gold?
 

Sister Mercedes

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2011
Messages
20,663
Google tells me that the alltime high for the DOW was 14,066 and FTSE was 6,642
Today the DOW is at 13,940 and the FTSE is at 6,350.
So if you invested in the Dow 13 years ago, you're about flat now, excluding fund manager fees. Not a great return. Not as good as the return on a PS pension, anyway.
 

constitutionus

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 19, 2007
Messages
23,330
Central Bank printing has pushed Bond Yields to historic lows, so money has to go somewhere else. While Doomsday merchants like Soros and Roubini are saying the worst is over. So it's a combination of complacency and cheap money. It could last a long time, but I reckon the US market tops out this year. Equity bull markets last an average of 42 months, and this one began 46 months ago.

yup.

theyre simple looking for somewhere to slash the cash as all other options are so poor.

ive a feeling its a bubble thats near topped and have cashed out myself. it just doestn make sense that it can keep up much longer considering the fundementals

ive a feeling our ol friend fiscal cliff will have an effect on the nasdaq/dow come march and the trickle down will hit the others.

i mean FFS the ISEQ is at 3550 !

that doesnt make a lick of sense. particularly the banks which have doubled in price in the last few weeks in some cases despite the fact theyre STILL basket cases.

i mean PTSB went UP today when reuters have reported that the deal to get shot of their trackers went down in flames when put forward to the euro lads.

at any other time it'dve devestated the share price.
 

gerhard dengler

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2011
Messages
47,554
So if you invested in the Dow 13 years ago, you're about flat now, excluding fund manager fees. Not a great return. Not as good as the return on a PS pension, anyway.
I know little or nothing about investing.

I can say though that it could be the case that part of the pension could be invested in stocks and shares, so this rally will help to increase the return for those pensions.

If you invested in the DOW 13 years ago, the index was around 10,000 just prior to the dotcom bubble burst.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Chart - Yahoo! Finance
 

Watcher2

Well-known member
Joined
May 2, 2010
Messages
34,164
The Dow Jones is skirting 14,000

FTSE is around 6,350.

Huge gains throughout other bourses.
Does anyone know why equity markets are rallying and rallying to near historic highs?
Short termism I think. The fiscal cliff was "sorted" and the debt ceiling can was kicked down the road for five months. Wait till they nrealise that these problems including the Euro crisis has not gone away really. It will come tumbling down again.
 

Ribeye

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 12, 2011
Messages
26,306
So if you invested in the Dow 13 years ago, you're about flat now, excluding fund manager fees. Not a great return. Not as good as the return on a PS pension, anyway.
Nah, you're way down,

How much did it cost to put a gallon of gas in your F - 150 and get a Big Mac and some Nuggets at the drive thru in 2000?
 
Last edited:

Sister Mercedes

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2011
Messages
20,663
If you invested in the DOW 13 years ago, the index was around 10,000 just prior to the dotcom bubble burst.
The Dow 30 was just below 12k at the Dotcom peak.

But if you look at the broader based S&P 500, it hit 1553 in March 2000 and 1576 in October 2007. It's about 1505 today (having dropped as low as 667 in 2009).
 

gerhard dengler

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2011
Messages
47,554
Short termism I think. The fiscal cliff was "sorted" and the debt ceiling can was kicked down the road for five months. Wait till they nrealise that these problems including the Euro crisis has not gone away really. It will come tumbling down again.
The DOW was at 12,000 in June 2012.

It hit 13,400 in October 2012 and slumped to 12,600.
But for the most has been climbing ever despite the 31/12/2012 Fiscal Cliff.
 

gerhard dengler

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2011
Messages
47,554
The Dow 30 was just below 12k at the Dotcom peak.

But if you look at the broader based S&P 500, it hit 1553 in March 2000 and 1576 in October 2007. It's about 1505 today (having dropped as low as 667 in 2009).
I was looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average which shows the 10,000 figure for 2000.
 

gerhard dengler

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2011
Messages
47,554
OK I was looking at a chart.
Apologies.

I took a look at the historic prices option and I see 11,722 at 14/1/2000.
^DJI Historical Prices | Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock - Yahoo! Finance

So yes, your point about the current value in 2013 as not representing a good return over 13 years relative to 2000 Industrial Average is a fair one to make.
 

Sister Mercedes

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2011
Messages
20,663
So yes, your point about the current value in 2013 as not representing a good return over 13 years relative to 2000 Industrial Average is a fair one to make.
If you were invested in the DJ30 stocks, you would also have received Dividends in the 13 years since 2000, which would add to your return, but they're not something that I follow. But again, fund manager charges can crush your returns in a flat market.
 

stopdoingstuff

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 26, 2011
Messages
22,897
It's such a trader's market thesedays- buy the dip, wait for the QE, sell the double tops, buy, wait for the QE money.......
 

Absurdo

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Messages
744
A lot of commentary coming out of Davos was that the bond market was a bust and that investors would move to the stock market as part of a cyclical shift away from stocks. Also that the crisis was over (from the rich POV)

At some stage the bank bailout money will appear in Main Street. When that happens the markets will double.

But is it happening ? Fiscal cliff will just mean more printing. So far the banks are getting everything they want. It will leak into main street some time but I thought we would see mergers and acquisitions pick up first as the canary of the system. There are plenty of cash rich corporations who should be acquiring if they think prices are good. M&A hasn't picked up enough in my view so a wee while yet to wait.
 
Top