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ESRI Caution Government on Pre-Election Splurge


krayZpaving

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The Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) has cautioned Fianna Fáil & the PDs not to engage in a pre-election splurge in December's Budget.

In this quarter's update, the ESRI has said that economic growth will slow down in 2008. They have advised the Government that money will need to be held back in order to ensure that anti-cyclical policies can be followed (i.e. that Government spending can be ramped up in the event of a downturn becoming apparent).

Former Finance Minister Ruairi Quinn TD of the Labour Party claimed that a "repeat of the dangerous conduct coming up to the 2002 General Election – when public expenditure increased by more than 20% per annum - could be disastrous. Money was thrown at anything that might turn up a few votes. Any consideration of getting value for money was abandoned."

The Government last night refused to comment on the ESRI's report.
Source: The Irish Times
 


qtman

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krayZpaving said:
The Government last night refused to comment on the ESRI's report.
Source: The Irish Times
The ESRI have about as much influence on Government policy as a back bench FF TD...
 

georgedillon

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What these overpaid "analysts" (did anyone ever do an audit of ESRI predictions to see how many came true?) seem to forget is that it's OUR money. We are grossly overtaxed, even to the extent that the govt is unable to spend its revenue. But these ESRI types want the government to keep OUR money! I want MY money back!
GD
 

mjcoughlan

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georgedillon said:
What these overpaid "analysts" (did anyone ever do an audit of ESRI predictions to see how many came true?) seem to forget is that it's OUR money. We are grossly overtaxed, even to the extent that the govt is unable to spend its revenue. But these ESRI types want the government to keep OUR money! I want MY money back!
GD
I don't think that's the issue. What they are saying is that in an economic decline public money might be better spent. I'm not entirely convinced of the effectiveness of anti-cyclical fiscal policies. The government should always be looking for ways to minimise public expenditure so that you can be taxed less than you are currently.
 

michael1965

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mjcoughlan said:
georgedillon said:
What these overpaid "analysts" (did anyone ever do an audit of ESRI predictions to see how many came true?) seem to forget is that it's OUR money. We are grossly overtaxed, even to the extent that the govt is unable to spend its revenue. But these ESRI types want the government to keep OUR money! I want MY money back!
GD
I don't think that's the issue. What they are saying is that in an economic decline public money might be better spent. I'm not entirely convinced of the effectiveness of anti-cyclical fiscal policies. The government should always be looking for ways to minimise public expenditure so that you can be taxed less than you are currently.
An example of what they are talking about is, instead of trying to build all the infrastructure that's needed asap, rather you deliberately hold back some investment until after 2008 (say), so that any downturn in the construction industry can be partially offset by increased government investment. While construction is one of the few sectors where they could possibly have some influence, the problem is that they still need to predict when the downturn does actually happen, which is not that easy to do.
 
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michael1965 said:
mjcoughlan said:
georgedillon said:
What these overpaid "analysts" (did anyone ever do an audit of ESRI predictions to see how many came true?) seem to forget is that it's OUR money. We are grossly overtaxed, even to the extent that the govt is unable to spend its revenue. But these ESRI types want the government to keep OUR money! I want MY money back!
GD
I don't think that's the issue. What they are saying is that in an economic decline public money might be better spent. I'm not entirely convinced of the effectiveness of anti-cyclical fiscal policies. The government should always be looking for ways to minimise public expenditure so that you can be taxed less than you are currently.
An example of what they are talking about is, instead of trying to build all the infrastructure that's needed asap, rather you deliberately hold back some investment until after 2008 (say), so that any downturn in the construction industry can be partially offset by increased government investment. While construction is one of the few sectors where they could possibly have some influence, the problem is that they still need to predict when the downturn does actually happen, which is not that easy to do.
That's it exactly- spot on.
 
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georgedillon said:
What these overpaid "analysts" (did anyone ever do an audit of ESRI predictions to see how many came true?) seem to forget is that it's OUR money. We are grossly overtaxed, even to the extent that the govt is unable to spend its revenue. But these ESRI types want the government to keep OUR money! I want MY money back!
GD
These comments on the ESRI are ignorant.

Should we or the State just rely on bank paid economists or none?

TK Whitaker was intrumental in setting up the Institute because he as a civil servant, saw the value of independent analysis that wasn't tied to a vested interest.

Years before the Celtic Tiger, the ESRI had forecast that emerging demographic trends could provide the basis for economic recovery.

I was at Monday's briefing and the ESRI is not predicting the end of the housing boom in 2008.

Alan Barratt said that as the ECB rate is likely to reach 4% in mid-2007 and rising interest rates in the rest of the world plus the end of the SSIA stimulus here, is likely to result in slower economic growth in 2008/09. it would be better if public spending was smoothed rather than having a big rise in 2007.
 

Skin

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irishpeoplearewhingers said:
michael1965 said:
mjcoughlan said:
georgedillon said:
What these overpaid "analysts" (did anyone ever do an audit of ESRI predictions to see how many came true?) seem to forget is that it's OUR money. We are grossly overtaxed, even to the extent that the govt is unable to spend its revenue. But these ESRI types want the government to keep OUR money! I want MY money back!
GD
I don't think that's the issue. What they are saying is that in an economic decline public money might be better spent. I'm not entirely convinced of the effectiveness of anti-cyclical fiscal policies. The government should always be looking for ways to minimise public expenditure so that you can be taxed less than you are currently.
An example of what they are talking about is, instead of trying to build all the infrastructure that's needed asap, rather you deliberately hold back some investment until after 2008 (say), so that any downturn in the construction industry can be partially offset by increased government investment.While construction is one of the few sectors where they could possibly have some influence, the problem is that they still need to predict when the downturn does actually happen, which is not that easy to do.
That's it exactly- spot on.
Thats nonsense. If you hold back on investing in infrastructure, investment will begin to decline due to the inadequacy of it. If investment declines then so does employment, and then invaribly the government purse strings through falling tax incomes, vat receipts, corporation tax etc...etc.
The correct thing to do is build the required infrastructure (not easily defined I admit, but along the lines of where demand exists for development then develop it, should suffice). In the event of a downturn Ireland will be in no worse a position than if investment was held back, however in the event of an upturn ireland would be in a far better position to attract investment as the required infrastructure has been built.
 

hammer

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What is the average salary in the ESRI €100,000 ?

Sure they haven`t met austerity yet :(
 

shiel

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The reason this thread is important is it shows how little discussion or indeed criticism of the policies that were to bankrupt the country got in 2006.

Even still the level of salaries of the researchers rather than the recklessness of the powerful decision makers is getting comment.
 

shiel

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Despite the relevance of this thread to the bankrupting of the country it is not encouraging any discussion on lessons to be learned or relevance to the present situation leading up to the budget.
 

shiel

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The ESRI have about as much influence on Government policy as a back bench FF TD...
Back bench government TDs vote government policy through the Dail. so they do have influence.

The point of this thread is that the powers that be ignored the warnings from the ESRI during the boom.

At the moment every vested interest in the place is being cheer led by the same media that cheer led the recklessness of the boom to look for more money.

That in a country which is borrowed up to its ears because of the collapse.
 
Last edited:

shiel

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The ESRI report in 2006 did not save us from going broke.

It will be interesting to see if the one that is out today will have any bigger impact on our future and stop the powers that be from bankrupting the country again.

The attitude of the irresponsible media has not changed judging by the ************************e that passes for democratic discourse here and elsewhere.
 

flavirostris

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Thank God FF & the PDs heeded the ESRI advice not to embark on a pre-election vote-buying splurge.
 

emulator

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shiel

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The op refers to the ESRI report of July 2006.

In October 2006 the ESRI talked about the 'domination of the economy by construction ... and the fact that 20% of homes were empty'.

Still no media reaction then to warn the rest of the population.
 

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