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EU no deal plans - whats going to happen?

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Prof Honeydew

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WTO is not about having a Berlin Wall and doesnt care about car theft etc, it is about having "Trade" controls (which link back to quotas), how do you think the rest of the world manages? You think there is a que of trucks at the swiss border? There isn't even a gaurd at some of the Swiss / German crossings. You are talking about a border to combat crime etc, that's not WTO remit, that is political.
There are only about twelve crossings along the entire German-Swiss border. Apart from short stretches around Basel and Schaffhausen, the entire frontier runs along the Rhine and Lake Constance. Over the past twenty years, I've seen queues of trucks and vans backed up at the Lorrach/Basel, Rheinfelden/Basel, Koblenz, Schaffhausen and Kreuzlingen/Konstanz crossings (queues seemed to be longer for traffic entering Switzerland than entering Germany) and I can't recall ever not seeing a backup of commercial vehicles. Cars cross unhindered on ordinary roads but the Swiss stop anyone moving onto a motorway to squeeze their autobahn tax out of them. They usually look over the car while they're at it and I've seen a few being pulled over to one side for offending one of the many things the Swiss get offended about.

It's much the same along their borders with France and Italy which also don't have that many crossings (Jura Mountains, Lake Geneva, Alps, Lake Maggiore) and there's usually a serious line of trucks waiting to cross at Saint Louis/Basel, Geneva and Lugano.
 


SPN

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WTO is not about having a Berlin Wall and doesnt care about car theft etc, it is about having "Trade" controls (which link back to quotas), how do you think the rest of the world manages? You think there is a que of trucks at the swiss border? There isn't even a gaurd at some of the Swiss / German crossings. You are talking about a border to combat crime etc, that's not WTO remit, that is political.
Switzerland is surrounded by the EU, is a member of Schengen, and has bilaterals with its neighbours.

Queues of trucks at the Swiss Border run at about 1 hour of queuing, and an hour and a half for processing once you get into the process.

It is in no way comparable to the situation that will prevail in Ireland.

A glimpse of what our post-Brexit border could look like - Swiss cheese - Independent.ie
 

wombat

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Queues of trucks at the Swiss Border run at about 1 hour of queuing, and an hour and a half for processing once you get into the process.

It is in no way comparable to the situation that will prevail in Ireland.
I don't see line ups at the border but I think the delays at the ports will have the biggest immediate impact especially for food exports and imports. I think we will see a major shift over time away from British groceries to EU brands as well as changes in what farmers produce, possibly less beef, more spuds?
 

Tippytop

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You should get onto the Brexiteers. They are planning on ignoring their direct neighbours and successfully economically trading with different entities a lot more than ....400 miles away.

More than 3,500 miles if they are getting their chlorinated chicken from New York.

6,000 miles or so if they are importing Brazillian beef.

11,000 miles or so for their New Zealand lamb.

And those are approximate flight distances, sea routes are longer.

.......400 miles away doesn't seem quite so shabby.
Yeah but you have to admit, Argentine beef is the best in the world and way cheaper without tariffs, same for NZ lamb, same goes for Canadian wheat, while they may be costs to brexit, having better, tariff free food is one of the benefits. If you can save the average Mrs J D taxpayer $50 a week that is a great thing and has a huge effect on the economy
 

Niall996

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Yeah but you have to admit, Argentine beef is the best in the world and way cheaper without tariffs, same for NZ lamb, same goes for Canadian wheat, while they may be costs to brexit, having better, tariff free food is one of the benefits. If you can save the average Mrs J D taxpayer $50 a week that is a great thing and has a huge effect on the economy
Mrs J D won’t have a pot to piss in because she and Mr J D will be unemployed.
 

CatullusV

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I'm not following Brexit much.
Can anyone explain to me why they just can't have the same deal as Norway or Switzerland ?
For a few reasons, one being Tha Norway don't want to share their arrangement with a third country and they have a veto. It should also be noted that Switzerland are permanently in a posture of negotiation with the EU. These deals take years to put together. Remember too that there are border checks on freight travelling across the Swiss/EU interface.

Trade deals are unique instruments reflecting the differing export and import requirements of each party. There is no boilerplate document. When the EU and the UK agree a deal it will be reflective of what each party needs from the other and also which of their respective industries need protection.

These deals are bespoke.
 

CatullusV

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Yeah but you have to admit, Argentine beef is the best in the world and way cheaper without tariffs, same for NZ lamb, same goes for Canadian wheat, while they may be costs to brexit, having better, tariff free food is one of the benefits. If you can save the average Mrs J D taxpayer $50 a week that is a great thing and has a huge effect on the economy
At the cost of the complete collapse of the domestic beef economy?
 

recedite

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It is in no way comparable to the situation that will prevail in Ireland.

A glimpse of what our post-Brexit border could look like - Swiss cheese - Independent.ie
Those crossing the border can bring in goods worth up to 300 Swiss Francs (€275) every day without taxes, and there are limits on imports of meat, dairy products, alcohol and cigarettes.
That's an interesting one. Dubliners who like to do a bit of shopping in Newry might be covered by similar exemptions and limits?
 

CatullusV

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They're not stupid. They have calculated the advantages free from EU directives and so on, an opportunity to recast the UK in some sort of pseudo past/future model and always casting the EU as the bogeyman to be blamed for all ills, hence war like rhetoric. I look forward to the day when the British public see through them, and rip the UK into something like a modern republic and ditch the Neanderthal like past institutions etc into the North Sea. All we can do is be patient and hold the line, may take some time, for the British public to get there.
Some of them are domonstrable and verifiable idiots if their public pronouncements on key issues are anything to go by.
 

CatullusV

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FWIW, I don't anticipate massed plagues of locusts being an outcome. It's not in the interests of the EU to see the UK starved of items which are sitting in warehouses on the Continent. I expect some friction, lots of bureaucracy, delays, etc. There will be efforts made in regard to transition, such as associate membership of pan-European organizations such as EASA, but these will likely be tied to strict timetables.

While the EU would be hit by a crash out exit, they will simultaneously be aware that some degree of mutual pain will be not simply necessary, but also desirable in the strategic sense.
 

SPN

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Mrs J D won’t have a pot to piss in because she and Mr J D will be unemployed.
The Brits will just go back to the way they originally made their fortune - piracy.

Sail down the coast of Africa, pick up some slaves, whip across the Atlantic and sell them in the colonies, then steal a couple of cargo ships on the way back, and sell the booty in London, Bristol, Liverpool, or wherever.

Great system.
 

TweetyBird

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Some of them are domonstrable and verifiable idiots if their public pronouncements on key issues are anything to go by.
Much of the rhetoric is just for show, don't put your head above the parapet and really shows up the absense of political responsibility malaise that has paralysed UK politics. Then there are flat out liers and BS merchants.
 

Paddy{ie

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Listening to helen Macentee on morning ireland now being asked about the plans for the border in the event of a no deal brexit. An absolute car crash. The government have NO concrete plans. What an utter joke this FG led government .
I actually feel sorry for Helen McEntee. Varadkar and Coveney drafted her in approx. one year ago and the reason was only to reduce the amount of time they would have to dedicate themselves to media. My impression right from the start was that she knew very little about the Brexit situation and was a glorified note-taker and buffer for the two boys. And they did that intentionally.
Every interview she has done has been more of the same waffle and padding of answers. She just doesn’t know, and the two boys don’t know either.
 

Tippytop

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At the cost of the complete collapse of the domestic beef economy?
if 70 million people save $50 a week that is $3.5B a week, if they save $10 a week they save $700M a week, i think they can probably afford some sort of farming subsidy............for a 1000 or so beef farmers
 

CatullusV

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Listening to helen Macentee on morning ireland now being asked about the plans for the border in the event of a no deal brexit. An absolute car crash. The government have NO concrete plans. What an utter joke this FG led government .
I think whatever plans they have are best kept secret
 

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