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EU no deal plans - whats going to happen?

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Roll_On

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if 70 million people save $50 a week that is $3.5B a week, if they save $10 a week they save $700M a week, i think they can probably afford some sort of farming subsidy............for a 1000 or so beef farmers
Why are you speaking yankee? the discussion is about the UK and EU.
 

Tippytop

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Why are you speaking yankee? the discussion is about the UK and EU.
erm i have worked in the uk for over a decade, have a home there, employ people there, own two businesses there..............
 

Roll_On

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erm i have worked in the uk for over a decade, have a home there, employ people there, own two businesses there..............
£GBP is the UK's currency and they'll be saving nothing of the sort with all the import duties they'll be paying in a country with no trade agreements.
 

Tippytop

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£GBP is the UK's currency and they'll be saving nothing of the sort with all the import duties they'll be paying in a country with no trade agreements.
what import duties will they pay? that will be their choice lmao, im not saying brexit will be great, it sucks in some ways, but it will bring the price of food down by a lot
 

Tippytop

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what import duties will they pay? that will be their choice lmao, im not saying brexit will be great, it sucks in some ways, but it will bring the price of food down by a lot
You are aware that import duties are normally (outside of the eu) applied and received by the country being imported to.............right?
 

Prof Honeydew

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erm i have worked in the uk for over a decade, have a home there, employ people there, own two businesses there..............
Welcome back, Tommy O'Brien. I believe your businesses in Britain include JP Morgan and Exxon although 'tis rumoured you scaled back your investments when your General Motors sold Vauxhall to Peugeot.
 

Roll_On

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what import duties will they pay? that will be their choice lmao, im not saying brexit will be great, it sucks in some ways, but it will bring the price of food down by a lot
Eh you know import duties that one pays on goods imported from countries that your country of purchase doesn't have reciprocal trade agreements with. Surely as a business owner you are aware of this and surely you are aware that $s are not legal tender in the UK or any part of the EU. All serious economic commentators are predicting shortages of food and higher prices for food in a no deal scenario. You are saying that the opposite will happen because of frozen meat imports from Argentina???
 

Tippytop

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Eh you know import duties that one pays on goods imported from countries that your country of purchase doesn't have reciprocal trade agreements with. Surely as a business owner you are aware of this and surely you are aware that $s are not legal tender in the UK or any part of the EU. All serious economic commentators are predicting shortages of food and higher prices for food in a no deal scenario. You are saying that the opposite will happen because of frozen meat imports from Argentina???
LMAO, import duties are applied by the country being imported to....... Some countries apply them, some don't, I don't think Singapore applies any at all and Australia's are very limited these days. There may well be some shortages of some things until an alternative supply is figured out but that is unlikely as the people with most to loose (britain, france, germany and maybe Netherlands) will do what it takes to not put their voters out of a job. Beef from argentina is one example, and it can be shipped chilled or frozen, it is also considered to be the best in the world and would not be subject to an import tariff unless the brits decide to put a tariff on it. Another really good example is sugar, any sugar imported into the eu is subject to a very big tariff, the tariff exists to protect beat farmers on the mainland, sugar goes into almost all food and drink in one way or another. If the brits choose to import tariff free cane sugar it has a big impact on all that it goes into......

Did you really think that a you need a trade agreement to set import tariffs? The point of a trade agreement is that you can export to a country without your exports being subject to import tariffs by the receiving country, please do some research.
 

CatullusV

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LMAO, import duties are applied by the country being imported to....... Some countries apply them, some don't, I don't think Singapore applies any at all and Australia's are very limited these days. There may well be some shortages of some things until an alternative supply is figured out but that is unlikely as the people with most to loose (britain, france, germany and maybe Netherlands) will do what it takes to not put their voters out of a job. Beef from argentina is one example, and it can be shipped chilled or frozen, it is also considered to be the best in the world and would not be subject to an import tariff unless the brits decide to put a tariff on it. Another really good example is sugar, any sugar imported into the eu is subject to a very big tariff, the tariff exists to protect beat farmers on the mainland, sugar goes into almost all food and drink in one way or another. If the brits choose to import tariff free cane sugar it has a big impact on all that it goes into......

Did you really think that a you need a trade agreement to set import tariffs? The point of a trade agreement is that you can export to a country without your exports being subject to import tariffs by the receiving country, please do some research.
WTO rules will almost certainly apply.
 

Tippytop

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WTO rules will almost certainly apply.
And WTO rules allow a country to set its own import tariffs, that is why WTO members, pretty much the whole world with some obvious exceptions, all set very different import tariffs to suit there own domestic needs............ Swiss beef tariffs, Ecuadorian shoe tariffs, Canadian dairy tariffs, etc etc etc
 

Niall996

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And WTO rules allow a country to set its own import tariffs, that is why WTO members, pretty much the whole world with some obvious exceptions, all set very different import tariffs to suit there own domestic needs............ Swiss beef tariffs, Ecuadorian shoe tariffs, Canadian dairy tariffs, etc etc etc
What would the British equivalent be? Boy Band Pop music tariffs?
 

CatullusV

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And WTO rules allow a country to set its own import tariffs, that is why WTO members, pretty much the whole world with some obvious exceptions, all set very different import tariffs to suit there own domestic needs............ Swiss beef tariffs, Ecuadorian shoe tariffs, Canadian dairy tariffs, etc etc etc
And export tariffs on UK goods?
 

SPN

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Tippytop

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Yes exactly, there are export tariffs on uk goods, most exports already have a tariff on them (as most go outside of EU) and in the absence a a trade deal with the eu, exports to the eu will be subject to import tariffs applied by eu and ie exports to the Uk will be subject to import tariffs applied by uk. The difference will be that whereas now, import tariffs collected by the uk (or any other eu state) are sent to Brussels, the uk will get to keep them and they can be used to support domestic sectors, just like the Swiss do with their farm sector if the Uk wishes. On the other hand, they could decide to get rid of or significantly reduce all tariffs making the price of goods in shops much cheaper, ie fruit from South America, grain from Canada, sugar etc. the price of consumer goods that are or contain imports from outside of the eu should fall substantially. While I think some Brexiteer claims are wrong, this one isn’t and should make life for the majority and the poorest substantially better. One of the reasons the eu and uk are struggling to agree is that the both want a deal but the eu doesn’t want the uk market opened up to imported goods from outside, example, only a lunatic would pay somebody in Spain for oranges at 2.5 times the price of a Brazilian orange. It is a difficult problem for everybody to solve.
 

Tippytop

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Good post, (the wto attachment)I personally think the brits should go for zero tariffs on most things, bad for a few, good for the many. An interesting question would be what would happen to ROI goods shipped through the uk to the mainland, maybe the brits would accept some sort of bonded truck system so as long as the seal isn’t broken when it gets to port Where it leaves the Uk, not tariff is applied? I don’t know if there is an example of that somewhere but it would be good for ROI
 

recedite

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The same guy also has this article specifically on a No Deal Brexit.

Ireland; No deal would be the worst possible outcome for the Irish border question, which is of such grave concern for both the UK and the EU. It would render a border unavoidable, because there would then be different systems of tariffs, standards, regulation and inspection in place respectively in Northern Ireland and in the Republic, while the UK commitment to maintaining the UK/Ireland common travel area could conflict with Ireland’s integration into EU freedom of movement. This border might not involve customs posts, watch towers and barbed wire, but legally and procedurally it would be no less real.
It is clear that Leo would be ordered by Brussels to impose this hard border.
The resurrection of the CTA is less clear, but IMO it still applies even though it has been "masked" by the more broad ranging all-EU freedom of movement in recent years.
In practical terms, all those holding Irish and British passports should be free to travel throughout these islands.
But those who are only visiting as tourists, or are asylum seekers would not have that same freedom of movement.
So its not quite the same as a mini Schengen, because in that scenario once a person is inside the zone, they are supposed to be able to travel freely around without being stopped or checked.

I say "supposed to be able to" because the Schengen area has been beset by "temporary" border posts springing up between countries, designed to intercept the migrants which were wandering northwards from Italy and Greece in the last few years. So in effect, Schengen proved to be somewhat dysfunctional in the absence of a hard EU external border, and as a result became "temporarily" more like the Irish-UK CTA used to be.
 

SPN

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It is clear that Leo would be ordered by Brussels to impose this hard border.
Not quite.

The only way we get a Hard Brexit is if brinksmanship is taken too far. Events Dear Boy and all that.


If that were to happen there will be a mad dash to contain the fallout.


You will see a border up the Irish Sea - with Norn Iron remaining in the CU until the rest of the UK can be reversed back into the EU.


The UK cannot countenance a Hard Brexit because it means economic suicide.
 

recedite

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Not quite.

The only way we get a Hard Brexit is if brinksmanship is taken too far. Events Dear Boy and all that.


If that were to happen there will be a mad dash to contain the fallout.


You will see a border up the Irish Sea - with Norn Iron remaining in the CU until the rest of the UK can be reversed back into the EU.


The UK cannot countenance a Hard Brexit because it means economic suicide.
I see you are still a believer. Still believing that Leo's big gamble will pay off.
The thing about big gamblers is that they invest so much emotionally in the winning outcome, that they cannot bring themselves to face what might happen in the losing outcome, even when it is staring them in the face.

Border in the Irish Sea; seen as the winning outcome.
Hard border with NI following No Deal Brexit; lets just pretend it can't happen.

The ironic thing here is that we could still turn this whole thing around by asking for The Backstop clause to be crossed out of the Withdrawal Agreement. But that would require Leo to do a political U-turn and admit he was wrong.

Its a very short window of opportunity for that though. The next few weeks, and then that's it.
 
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