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EU no deal plans - whats going to happen?

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SPN

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I see you are still a believer. Still believing that Leo's big gamble will pay off.
The big gamble is on the Brexiteer side.

They are betting that they can get a sweetheart deal.

They can't.



The thing about big gamblers is that they invest so much emotionally in the winning outcome, that they cannot bring themselves to face what might happen in the losing outcome, even when it is staring them in the face.
Exactly.



Border in the Irish Sea; seen as the winning outcome.
Hard border with NI following No Deal Brexit; lets just pretend it can't happen.
The winning outcome, for the UK and everyone else, is to scrap the whole stupid idea and get back to living in the real World,



The ironic thing here is that we could still turn this whole thing around by asking for The Backstop clause to be crossed out of the Withdrawal Agreement. But that would require Leo to do a political U-turn and admit he was wrong.

Its a very short window of opportunity for that though. The next few weeks, and then that's it.
There is nothing we can do to fix this.

Scrapping the backstop only makes the problem worse - because it encourages the headbangers to believe that there might be a sweetheart deal.

The only positive way out of this is to wait for the grown ups to kick the can out from under the feet of the Brexiteer nutjobs.
 

recedite

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The big gamble is on the Brexiteer side.
They are betting that they can get a sweetheart deal.
Nobody, on either side, thinks there will be another Withdrawal deal.
There is nothing we can do to fix this.
We can ask for The Backstop clause to be removed from the existing deal. No other EU country would support it if Ireland opposed it. Striking out that clause does not mean negotiating a new deal.

That would bring the pivotal DUP vote back to support PM May, along with very many other MPs who can't abide this interference in the UK's sovereignty. The UK parliament will hold that crucial vote in the next couple of weeks.

Mays deal = ultra soft Brexit, and is undoubtedly the best attainable result for RoI.

Or, we can just stand back, watch the WA being rejected, and just say afterwards "it wasn't us, there was nothing we could do."

In the event of a No Deal Brexit, Leo can bleat all he likes, but he will be instructed by Brussels to impose a hard border between RoI and NI.
 

raetsel

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Nobody, on either side, thinks there will be another Withdrawal deal.

We can ask for The Backstop clause to be removed from the existing deal. No other EU country would support it if Ireland opposed it. Striking out that clause does not mean negotiating a new deal.

That would bring the pivotal DUP vote back to support PM May, along with very many other MPs who can't abide this interference in the UK's sovereignty. The UK parliament will hold that crucial vote in the next couple of weeks.

Mays deal = ultra soft Brexit, and is undoubtedly the best attainable result for RoI.

Or, we can just stand back, watch the WA being rejected, and just say afterwards "it wasn't us, there was nothing we could do."
A majority of us living in Northern Ireland want the backstop as do a majority in the Republic. What is your problem with that? If you were British I could understand, but as I'm left wondering why you are so determined to undermine your own people..............
 

recedite

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The mouse wants that piece of cheese in the mousetrap.
Sometimes "wanting something" is what you need to be wary of.

Maybe there is still a tiny chance that the mouse will be quick enough to get the cheese.
Or maybe not.
 

Tippytop

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A majority of us living in Northern Ireland want the backstop as do a majority in the Republic. What is your problem with that? If you were British I could understand, but as I'm left wondering why you are so determined to undermine your own people..............
That maybe true but the problem will be that according to last weeks polling, a substantial majority of brexiteers would rather have WTO than a back stop deal that is not expressly time limited, if it is time limited May's deal may go through but then the risk is that the brits simply run down the clock on on it.

To further complicate matters, even if a backstop deal is agreed in some form, my understanding is that all people born on the island of Ireland, have the right to be Irish, British or both. In the even of an agreement and a soft border, how will the RoI know whether the people crossing the border are Irish, British or Both rather than anybody who came to the UK on any form of visa if there are no checks done on people coming into the RoI? I suppose that is true now, but at the moment they would be coming from one EU entity to another so less of problem, what happens in future I am not sure.
 

brughahaha

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A majority of us living in Northern Ireland want the backstop as do a majority in the Republic. What is your problem with that? If you were British I could understand, but as I'm left wondering why you are so determined to undermine your own people..............


How do you know ?
 

brughahaha

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That maybe true but the problem will be that according to last weeks polling, a substantial majority of brexiteers would rather have WTO than a back stop deal that is not expressly time limited, if it is time limited May's deal may go through but then the risk is that the brits simply run down the clock on on it.

To further complicate matters, even if a backstop deal is agreed in some form, my understanding is that all people born on the island of Ireland, have the right to be Irish, British or both. In the even of an agreement and a soft border, how will the RoI know whether the people crossing the border are Irish, British or Both rather than anybody who came to the UK on any form of visa if there are no checks done on people coming into the RoI? I suppose that is true now, but at the moment they would be coming from one EU entity to another so less of problem, what happens in future I am not sure.
I think to qualify for a British passport if born in the Republic , you had to be born by 1st Jan 1949 with 1 British parent or be resident in the UK and obtain a passport through naturalisation.Its far from automatic.
British born people can only obtain Irish citizenship through naturalisation or parentage (2 generations apparently)and have no other claims on Irish citizenship.

This knowledge comes from having a very "mixed" family and my own understanding, so open to correction
 

bokuden

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I actually feel sorry for Helen McEntee. Varadkar and Coveney drafted her in approx. one year ago and the reason was only to reduce the amount of time they would have to dedicate themselves to media. My impression right from the start was that she knew very little about the Brexit situation and was a glorified note-taker and buffer for the two boys. And they did that intentionally.
Every interview she has done has been more of the same waffle and padding of answers. She just doesn’t know, and the two boys don’t know either.
Mcentees assertion that she/the government have done NOTHING about the border in the event of a no deal brexit was jaw dropping. This has been subesequently supported by Varadker among other FGers. They need to be booted out of office for that level of incompotence/irresponsibility.
 

SPN

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Nobody, on either side, thinks there will be another Withdrawal deal.
That is correct.



We can ask for The Backstop clause to be removed from the existing deal. No other EU country would support it if Ireland opposed it. Striking out that clause does not mean negotiating a new deal.
Why in the name of Jeebus would we do something so utterly stupid.

Are you seriously saying that we should unilaterally surrender to the Brexiteers, even though Teresa May agreed to the backstop 12 monthes ago.

That is beyond ridiculous.



That would bring the pivotal DUP vote back to support PM May, along with very many other MPs who can't abide this interference in the UK's sovereignty. The UK parliament will hold that crucial vote in the next couple of weeks.
That is an entirely internal matter for the UK. We have no role in that internal debate.

We have negotiated the best WA from our perspective, and we need to stick to what we have agreed.



Mays deal = ultra soft Brexit, and is undoubtedly the best attainable result for RoI.
The best result for the ROI is a withdrawal of Article 50.

The second best result for the ROI is the UK remaining in the CU.

The third best result for the ROI is Norn Iron remaining in the CU.

But it is up to the UK to decide what is the best result for the UK.

We have no role in that.



Or, we can just stand back, watch the WA being rejected, and just say afterwards "it wasn't us, there was nothing we could do."
But that is the truth.

If the Brexiteers jump off a cliff, that is their decision.

There was nothing we could do.



In the event of a No Deal Brexit, Leo can bleat all he likes, but he will be instructed by Brussels to impose a hard border between RoI and NI.
As explained earlier, if we stumble into a No Deal Brexit, it will be Teresa May who will be taking instructions from Brussels whenever she runs crying to them looking for a way to stop the UK economy imploding.

The very first demand from Brussels will be that the border runs up the Irish Sea.
 

SPN

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Mcentees assertion that she/the government have done NOTHING about the border in the event of a no deal brexit was jaw dropping. This has been subesequently supported by Varadker among other FGers. They need to be booted out of office for that level of incompotence/irresponsibility.
The UK has stated that there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland.

The EU has stated that there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland.

The Irish Government has stated that there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland.

Everybody is in agreement that there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland



And you think that they should waste taxpayers' hard earned preparing for a hard border on the Island of Ireland anyway.

Mad Ted.
 

SPN

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The propaganda is strong with this one.

"If the EU really wanted a good relationship after Brexit, they would have made major changes to the deal.The fact that they have ignored the Prime Minister’s entreaties says all you need to know about their desire to shackle us and stop us competing.

The problem has been that while our ‘negotiators’ have behaved towards the EU as friends, they have treated us as adversaries.

The only chance we have to deliver on the referendum and get a half-sensible deal is to get fully ready to leave on World Trade Organisation terms by March 29."


IDS seeks landmine to step on.
 

bokuden

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The UK has stated that there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland.

The EU has stated that there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland.

The Irish Government has stated that there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland.

Everybody is in agreement that there will be no hard border on the Island of Ireland



And you think that they should waste taxpayers' hard earned preparing for a hard border on the Island of Ireland anyway.

Mad Ted.
It would be a better use of state money than shovelling it into the hands of bankers, vulture funds and rich businessmen, the way your party (the Greens) facilitated during their time in government.

Mad stuff altogether.

Glad you believe all the parties when they state that there will no hard border in Ireland. Then again, you also believed your partners in government FF when they stated that the bailout would be the cheapest in history.
 
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Gwannow

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If the no deal Brexit happens, no matter what the politicians have said, there will be a hard border. ROI will not be viewed as only such, but an EU member. The border-less ideal will quickly collapse when unwelcome goods ( items banned for environmental or pharmacological, sanitary and health reasons) start pouring into the South. Either then a hard border on our island or the Republic will be classed in a similar category as the UK in order to arrest unwanted products entering Europe mainland. Then we will have a border between us and our other EU countries.I hope I'm wrong, but stranger things have happened. A second referendum is our only salvation from such uncertainty. The galling bit, tho, is that Northern Ireland voted to remain and a small cohort of politicians there are driving this whole debacle.
 

TweetyBird

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Given that we're not in Schengen there is less pressure to secure a border re people crossing over the NI border. Investment for border is in ports and airports, for goods principally and this will satisfy EU for now. A no deal exit will have calculated that the UK after a time will come back to the table and sign up to a deal
Politically it is important to avoid preparstions from our side to erect fences, check points and so on, leave that problem to the UK whose decision in the first place led to the possibility of a physical border.
 

SPN

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It would be a better use of state money than shovelling it into the hands of bankers, vulture funds and rich businessmen, the way your party (the Greens) facilitated during their time in government.
Whenever the Greens were in Government they nationalised the banks, sacked the senior bankers, and set NAMA loose on most of the "rich" businessmen - who weren't so rich whenever they couldn't keep up appearances with borrowed money.



Glad you believe all the parties that there will no hard border on ireland.
I believe that they will do their utmost to make this happen.

There is a huge downside for all concerned if they don't.



Then again, you also believed your parteners in governemtn FF when they stated that the bailout would be the cheapest in history.
Brian Lenihan said that the Guarantee would be the cheapest bailout in history, on or about the 23rd of October 2008.

At that stage (since October 13th) the ECB was reaponsible for meeting the liquidity needs of all EU banks.

And here we are today, in 2018, and we know they outcome of the Guarantee.

Insurance premia paid by the Banks to the Government to avail of the Guarantee - €4.5 Billion

Insurance claims made under the Guarantee (by Anglo whenever it went into Liquidation) - €1.1 Billion.

Repayments to the State by the Liquidator of monies loaned under the Guarantee - €1.0 Billion.


That's a €4.4 Billion profit.

It doesn't get "cheaper" than that.

Irish bailout cheapest in world, says Lenihan
 

raetsel

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How do you know ?
56% of us voted to Remain, and all polling since suggests that has now risen into the 60s for a start. The UFU, the local branch of the CBI and Chamber of Commerce want it as well. Just about anyone who don't believe that it is the best option are also about the only people in NI who believe that the Giant's Causeway was formed 6,000 years ago and that the Flintstones was a documentary. :)
 

raetsel

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How do you know ?
56% of us voted to Remain, and all polling since suggests that has now risen into the 60s for a start. The UFU, the local branch of the CBI and Chamber of Commerce want it as well. Just about anyone who don't believe that it is the best option are also about the only people in NI who believe that the Giant's Causeway was formed 6,000 years ago and that the Flintstones was a documentary. :)

Lucid Talk poll shows support for special status Toole

Edit.

Top NI polling company recorded last month 56% support for Remain and a further 6% willing to accept the backstop. Only 34% of respondents want either to crash out, or to reject May's deal and try to negotiate a deal without the backstop, while 2% want a deal closer to the EU than May's deal.
Inother words, backstop, closer than backstop and Remainers account for a pretty overwhelming 64%. The don't knows make up the remainder.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_b89b42d32364461298ba5fe7867d82e1.pdf
 
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