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Euro election and the 3rd seat


McSlaggart

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 29, 2010
Messages
17,134
"It is now possible that unionists could lose their second Euro seat on May 23. The UUP's Danny Kennedy will not only be competing with the DUP and TUV for first preferences, he will also be in a major transfer battle for survival. Naomi Long looks well-placed, assuming she's able to hold on to Alliance's 11.5% vote (which I think is likely), to benefit from significant trickle-down from Sinn Fein, SDLP and others.

If the second unionist seat is lost it will not only be a hammer-blow for the UUP (which has held it since 1979), it will also be an enormous psychological blow for unionism: another piece of hard electoral confirmation that just holding on to what they have may be an even bigger challenge than making gains."

 


raetsel

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
7,237
"It is now possible that unionists could lose their second Euro seat on May 23. The UUP's Danny Kennedy will not only be competing with the DUP and TUV for first preferences, he will also be in a major transfer battle for survival. Naomi Long looks well-placed, assuming she's able to hold on to Alliance's 11.5% vote (which I think is likely), to benefit from significant trickle-down from Sinn Fein, SDLP and others.

If the second unionist seat is lost it will not only be a hammer-blow for the UUP (which has held it since 1979), it will also be an enormous psychological blow for unionism: another piece of hard electoral confirmation that just holding on to what they have may be an even bigger challenge than making gains."

To win she needs to be ahead of Colm Eastwood early in the count process to benefit from his transfers which will overwhelmingly go to her.
I'm giving her my 1st preference.
She is an outstanding leader and would well deserve a seat.
There will be a lot of tactical voting in this election and it will be a resounding vote of confidence for the backstop if she wins.
 

Marcella

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2010
Messages
3,773
To win she needs to be ahead of Colm Eastwood early in the count process to benefit from his transfers which will overwhelmingly go to her.
I'm giving her my 1st preference.
She is an outstanding leader and would well deserve a seat.
There will be a lot of tactical voting in this election and it will be a resounding vote of confidence for the backstop if she wins.
More so a real psychological blow to unionism than anything meaningful given brexit. I think she’ll take it. She’ll get plenty of transfers from non unionists and will benefit from the pro remain unionist vote.
 

raetsel

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 5, 2017
Messages
7,237
More so a real psychological blow to unionism than anything meaningful given brexit. I think she’ll take it. She’ll get plenty of transfers from non unionists and will benefit from the pro remain unionist vote.
Unionism will keep fooling themselves that because "she's a daughter of the lodge" they are not really losing ground, and continue evincing the same complacent arrogance that has been their trade mark for the last 50 years. There is a widely held misconception that Alliance voters are soft unionists. The evidence from PR transfers and opinion polls proves that around 70% of them are soft nationalists.
So I think it is more of a boost to nationalist morale myself.
Baby steps. But we are getting there.
 

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