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European Parliamentary Election - 2019: Europe's Most Vital?

owedtojoy

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This a been touted as a key election in the history of the EU with a major surge for Euroscepticism said to be in the offing, fueled by unease over migration.

The first exit polls are dribbling in, with projections at Live Projection: EU Election Result - Europe Elects

As these are exit polls they come with a health warning, and I am comparing them with projections that were in the Economist last week, which were based on polls.

Main messages:

Greens: 52 --->69 seats (Better than expected)
Social Democrats: 191 ----> 150 (Better than expected)
Liberals: 67 ----> 100 (Better than Expected)
European People's Party: 221 ----> 161 (Worse than expected)
National Conservatives: 70 ----> 58 (Worse than expected)
European Freedom/ Direct Democracy: 48 ---> 0 (Worse than expected)
Europe of Nations & Freedom: 37 ----> 75 (Better than expected)

It looks like that Salvini and his allies will have 26 seats, and the UK Brexit Party 28. This have come from a 0 base.

The centre vote seems indeed to have fractured, but to have gone Left as much as Right, maybe more so. Matters are still unclear.

I don;t understand the collapse in the EF/DD grouping vote - this are "of the right", but maybe the grouping is defunct, maybe it will be filled by the Salvini and Farage parties.
 


owedtojoy

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Official declaration of results begins at 10:00 pm Irish time.

Another report from Germany is the the vote for Angela Merkels' CDU was down slightly, and the AfD was not polling as well as expected. Again, an exit poll.
 

owedtojoy

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Summary from the Guardian:
  • The European People’s party remains the largest in the parliament, but loses 48 seats.
  • The Socialists & Democrats remain the second-largest force, but are reduced to 147 seats.
  • The Liberals will be the third-largest group winning 102 seats (up from 67 seats)
  • Greens are on course for 71 seats, big gains on the 50 seats they won in 2014.
  • The Conservative Eurosceptic group set up by David Cameron loses seats and Nigel Farage’s group makes limited gains.
  • The far-right Europe of Nations and Freedom group gains 11 seats, but not the breakthrough many had forecast.
Health warning: these are not results and parties may choose to join different groups, making any estimate unstable. For instance, nobody knows whether Hungary’s Fidesz party will remain in the EPP or look for allies on the far right.

 

owedtojoy

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Latest projection is that Salvini's party will have 19 seats, and Farage's 24, so that matters are fluid.
 

owedtojoy

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In France, Macron's party is running second to Marine le Pen's.

Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party is estimated to have topped the European election vote in France, dealing a blow to the pro-European, centrist president Emmanuel Macron
.

A projection for France 2 television, based on exit polls, showed Le Pen’s party coming first with 23.2%, ahead of Macron’s centrist grouping on 21.9%.
 

owedtojoy

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Quote of the day from Tony Connolly RTE European Correspondent

"In Brussels, no one is talking about Brexit"

RTE anchor:

"Lucky them"
 

midlander12

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In France, Macron's party is running second to Marine le Pen's.
Pretty much in line with opinion polls. The FN (or RN as it's now called) is in fact slightly down on previous results, but the total collapse of the mainstream right parties means that it's now the main opposition and probably the largest single party. Macron's LREM and its Modem allies and to some extent the Greens have essentially filled the space vacated by the old (also collapsed) Socialist Party, and the rest of the left and right have fragmented into factions, none of which seem to command more than 10% of the vote.
 

owedtojoy

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Pretty much in line with opinion polls. The FN (or RN as it's now called) is in fact slightly down on previous results, but the total collapse of the mainstream right parties means that it's now the main opposition and probably the largest single party. Macron's LREM and its Modem allies and to some extent the Greens have essentially filled the space vacated by the old (also collapsed) Socialist Party, and the rest of the left and right have fragmented into factions, none of which seem to command more than 10% of the vote.
I just saw numbers that the FN (now the Rassemblement National, or RN) has had a fall in its vote by 1%, but still 2% above Macron's party.

It is a setback for Macron, but hardly a disaster. Probably a difference of 1 seat.
 

owedtojoy

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The Brexit Party surging ahead in early counts in the UK. The Liberal Democrats and the Greens are also surging, but nothing to match the Brexiteers.

The Brexit Party has the advantage of being a single-issue party, while its opponents are divided.
 

owedtojoy

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In the UK, the North East Constituency had elected 2 Brexit MEPs and 1 Labour MEP. The Tories were 4th.

The Conservatives are being beaten into 3rd, 4th, or even 5th place in many districts, and may end up with no MEPs.
 

brughahaha

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I just saw numbers that the FN (now the Rassemblement National, or RN) has had a fall in its vote by 1%, but still 2% above Macron's party.

It is a setback for Macron, but hardly a disaster. Probably a difference of 1 seat.

Its a disaster because Macron sees himself as heir apparent to Merkel and is desperate to be the biggest voice in Europe ....... Hard to do when you cant even carry your own country.

Hes a lame duck President who was hoping Europe might give him a platform for his 2nd run at the Champs Elysee , seems he's going to have little influence there either.

And the make up of the new EU parliament is going to make his "reforms" nigh on impossible now.
 

owedtojoy

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In Greece, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has called a snap election because his ruling party came second to the Centre-Right Opposition.
 

owedtojoy

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Its a disaster because Macron sees himself as heir apparent to Merkel and is desperate to be the biggest voice in Europe ....... Hard to do when you cant even carry your own country.

Hes a lame duck President who was hoping Europe might give him a platform for his 2nd run at the Champs Elysee , seems he's going to have little influence there either.

And the make up of the new EU parliament is going to make his "reforms" nigh on impossible now.
Dunno.

His Liberal Grouping ALDE has been quite successful in this election, will now be the 3rd largest in the EP and are set to be kingmakers as the bigger groupings EPP & Social Democrats have lost their majority.

Just saw Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of his group, on TV calling the election a great success, and that ALDE will push for a "more ambitious Europe".

A 3-way grouping (EPP + SD + ALDE) are expected to be the first to try to form a coherent programme. Together, these will have over 400 of the 751 seats.
 

owedtojoy

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Exit polls borne out in Netherlands, where Labour led the polls, and the far-right vote collapsed.

The post-mortem on that should be interesting, because the far-right surged in the local elections there a few months ago.
 

brughahaha

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Dunno.

His Liberal Grouping ALDE has been quite successful in this election, will now be the 3rd largest in the EP and are set to be kingmakers as the bigger groupings EPP & Social Democrats have lost their majority.

Just saw Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of his group, on TV calling the election a great success, and that ALDE will push for a "more ambitious Europe".

A 3-way grouping (EPP + SD + ALDE) are expected to be the first to try to form a coherent programme. Together, these will have over 400 of the 751 seats.
yes , more Europe , thats what the citizens want ....Guy is always a man with his finger on the pulse :rolleyes:

Between the turnout and the increase in anti EU votes all "a more robust europe" will do is further antagonise electorates.

And thats before what is guaranteed to be some unseemly horse trading for the extravagant spoils of office.
 

owedtojoy

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Social Democrats topped the polls in Sweden, Netherlands, Spain and Portugal.
Right-wing Le Pen & Salvini parties in France and Italy.
Conservative Grouping in Poland and Belgium
Liberals: Denmark and Estonia
Brexit Party: UK
EPP: Germany, Latvia, Ireland, Greece, Austria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria
Fidesz: Hungary (Suspended from EPP)

No report from Czech Republic or Lithuania.
 
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owedtojoy

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yes , more Europe , thats what the citizens want ....Guy is always a man with his finger on the pulse :rolleyes:

Between the turnout and the increase in anti EU votes all "a more robust europe" will do is further antagonise electorates.

And thats before what is guaranteed to be some unseemly horse trading for the extravagant spoils of office.
You are reading this backwards ... there is a larger trend towards pro-EU parties than anti-EU parties.

You will find even the Le Pens have softened their coughs considerably, and no one really wants to end the EU - maybe make it more amenable to national influence, though how that is to be done is unknown.

At a time when supergiant economies like the US and China are set to have a trade war, do you think 27 European micro-economies have a chance of survival if they do not hang together as a trading bloc?

Also, polls are showing a rebound of support for the EU - the highest since 2007, according to the Economist.
 
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owedtojoy

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Turnout across Europe was 51% on average, one of the highest ever.

In the UK it was 32%, but 37% in Wales. Maybe that is subject to correction.

I can't understand that UK turnout - the ROI figure was 48%, and you would have though the British had more at stake.
 

midlander12

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Turnout across Europe was 51% on average, one of the highest ever.

In the UK it was 32%, but 37% in Wales. Maybe that is subject to correction.

I can't understand that UK turnout - the ROI figure was 48%, and you would have though the British had more at stake.
UK turnout in Euro elections was always terrible, in fact it was 36% this time which is relatively high (they used to hold local elections the same day to boost turnout, but not this year as they were supposed to be gone by now!)

Brexit now on 30%, LD's 21%, Lab 15%.

 

owedtojoy

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Labour being ripped asumder in many places - Leavers deserting to the Brexit Party, Remainers to the Lib Dems & the Greens.

Currently, seats won:

Brexit P: 7
Lib Dems: 5
Labour: 2
Tories: 1

The Brexit Party are improving on UKIP, which looks like it will lose all its seats.
 


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