Events, dear Trump, events....

HarshBuzz

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Politicians tend, sometimes through little fault of their own, to get defined by their reaction to events. At such times, nations look to their leaders for guidance, moral leadership and to set the tone.

Think of FDR's 'Day of Infamy' speech the day after Pearl Harbour. The look of bewilderment on GWB's face as he sat reading to elementary schoolchildren and was told of 9\11. JFK's successful facing down of Khruschev during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Truman's leadership post WW2.
All of these things helped to define these leaders, for good or for ill.

So, with this in mind, and a radically different President imminent - I have two questions:
(1) what unforeseen events might President Trump conceivably face during his tenure?
(2) what reaction might we envisage to such events?

I'll leave (2) to our collective wisdom but will suggest a few potential scenarios for (1):

  1. A high-school shooting like Columbine. Highly likely.
  2. A major domestic terrorist attack.
  3. A major provocation by North Korea
  4. A natural disaster of massive proportions (Katrina size)

I have left out such scenarios that the Trump administration might instigate themselves.

I have a feeling that Trump is more likely to slip up in the tone of his pronouncements responding to such an event (nutty Twitter posts are evidence in favour of my assertation here). Although incautious orders withour regard to consequences are also highly likely.

Thoughts on MacMillan scenarios o Piesters?
 


Mick Mac

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Politicians tend, sometimes through little fault of their own, to get defined by their reaction to events. At such times, nations look to their leaders for guidance, moral leadership and to set the tone.

Think of FDR's 'Day of Infamy' speech the day after Pearl Harbour. The look of bewilderment on GWB's face as he sat reading to elementary schoolchildren and was told of 9\11. JFK's successful facing down of Khruschev during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Truman's leadership post WW2.
All of these things helped to define these leaders, for good or for ill.

So, with this in mind, and a radically different President imminent - I have two questions:
(1) what unforeseen events might President Trump conceivably face during his tenure?
(2) what reaction might we envisage to such events?

I'll leave (2) to our collective wisdom but will suggest a few potential scenarios for (1):

  1. A high-school shooting like Columbine. Highly likely.
  2. A major domestic terrorist attack.
  3. A major provocation by North Korea
  4. A natural disaster of massive proportions (Katrina size)

I have left out such scenarios that the Trump administration might instigate themselves.

I have a feeling that Trump is more likely to slip up in the tone of his pronouncements responding to such an event (nutty Twitter posts are evidence in favour of my assertation here). Although incautious orders withour regard to consequences are also highly likely.

Thoughts on MacMillian scenarios o Piester

Add in as a scenario a major terrorist attack in a western country - highly possible. Major meaning a couple hundred. Attacks with sub 100 casualties is practically guaranteed over the next 4 years, but a big attack is more likely with the looming "defeat" of ISIS in Syria/Iraq.

Mick


Mick
 

HarshBuzz

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Add in as a scenario a major terrorist attack in a western country - highly possible. Major meaning a couple hundred. Attacks with sub 100 casualties is practically guaranteed over the next 4 years, but a big attack is more likely with the looming "defeat" of ISIS in Syria/Iraq.

Mick


Mick
So another Paris-style attack? In a Western European country or other traditional US ally such as Australia.

I would see Trump's response as being pretty minimal in such a scenario. He seems to be isolationist by instinct.

(anyway, what did Obama do? Statement of commiseration was about it)
 

Polly Ticks

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A more immediate issue.. (well a week or so away) how the Trump administration responds to mass civil disobedience.
 

Mad as Fish

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Mick Mac

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So another Paris-style attack? In a Western European country or other traditional US ally such as Australia.

I would see Trump's response as being pretty minimal in such a scenario. He seems to be isolationist by instinct.

(anyway, what did Obama do? Statement of commiseration was about it)
Isolationist, but the last week has seen a lot of talk about his connections with international figures. He has made some splashes with extra-America activities. America first has an international dimension.

If there is a Paris style attack then his response wont be Obama like. Trump will probably be willing to rock the boat and call it an act of war and talk in a way that squares off against the Jihad. Likely with some enthusiasm.

Mick
 

mossyman

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A more immediate issue.. (well a week or so away) how the Trump administration responds to mass civil disobedience.
Exactly. It remains to be seen if a really well organised opposition to his presidency will emerge and what his reaction to it will be.
 

derryman

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Politicians tend, sometimes through little fault of their own, to get defined by their reaction to events. At such times, nations look to their leaders for guidance, moral leadership and to set the tone.

Think of FDR's 'Day of Infamy' speech the day after Pearl Harbour. The look of bewilderment on GWB's face as he sat reading to elementary schoolchildren and was told of 9\11. JFK's successful facing down of Khruschev during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Truman's leadership post WW2.
All of these things helped to define these leaders, for good or for ill.

So, with this in mind, and a radically different President imminent - I have two questions:
(1) what unforeseen events might President Trump conceivably face during his tenure?
(2) what reaction might we envisage to such events?

I'll leave (2) to our collective wisdom but will suggest a few potential scenarios for (1):

  1. A high-school shooting like Columbine. Highly likely.
  2. A major domestic terrorist attack.
  3. A major provocation by North Korea
  4. A natural disaster of massive proportions (Katrina size)

I have left out such scenarios that the Trump administration might instigate themselves.

I have a feeling that Trump is more likely to slip up in the tone of his pronouncements responding to such an event (nutty Twitter posts are evidence in favour of my assertation here). Although incautious orders withour regard to consequences are also highly likely.

Thoughts on MacMillan scenarios o Piesters?
So are you asking me to see the unforseen? Now if I had that ability...............
 

HarshBuzz

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A more immediate issue.. (well a week or so away) how the Trump administration responds to mass civil disobedience.
Not doubting you here - but is something planned (because if there is it hasn't reached my ears, not that this means anything)?
Or are you speculating of protests that might break out spontaneously?
 

Mick Mac

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A more immediate issue.. (well a week or so away) how the Trump administration responds to mass civil disobedience.
After a while the OMG Trump is not my President snowflakes will melt away but how he handles mass civil disobedience after a police shooting of a black person where there is clear evidence the cops did wrong (He may say the shooting was wrong, He did say that about one shooting where a cop seemed to have panic shot someone) but if its a situation where a guy dies resisting arrest then that might trigger some big riots since he will be unlikely to let it be construed solely as a civil rights issue.

Its a good question Poster Polly Ticks.

Mick
 

HarshBuzz

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Isolationist, but the last week has seen a lot of talk about his connections with international figures. He has made some splashes with extra-America activities. America first has an international dimension.

If there is a Paris style attack then his response wont be Obama like. Trump will probably be willing to rock the boat and call it an act of war and talk in a way that squares off against the Jihad. Likely with some enthusiasm.

Mick
It does look quite likely that ISIS won't hold any territory then though. They're being crushed in Syria and Iraq.

How do you launch an assault on a phantom? Continue Obama's drone war?
 

HarshBuzz

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He'll fly off to Moscow and beg Putin for assistance in putting it down.
Might as well consult the experts! You don't see much opposition in Moscow. :shock:
 

Polly Ticks

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Exactly. It remains to be seen if a really well organised opposition to his presidency will emerge and what his reaction to it will be.
Right. And throw in some Rodney King/Reginald Denny-type images...

The historical indications from Trump aren't great.. the central park five case being a classic example.

Will he handle such cases well?

HarshBuzz

Not doubting you here - but is something planned (because if there is it hasn't reached my ears, not that this means anything)?
Or are you speculating of protests that might break out spontaneously?
Yes... a women's march that's expected to reach a million.. Moore's "100 days of protest".. BLM protests planned all over the country.
 

HarshBuzz

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Yes... a women's march that's expected to reach a million.. Moore's "100 days of protest".. BLM protests planned all over the country.
Of all things to unsettle Trump, 'a million women' sounds like something he would have dreamt up as a campaign slogan.
 

Dearghoul

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The clear instability of his personality would lead to squaeky bum time in the domestic and foreign security services had he not suddenly relieved them of all responsibility for his person or status.

What exactly he will be able to do in their absence will be seen in the coming months.

His mental instability will be played on by Russia in seemingly benign ways. How and whether China uses it to its own advantage will depend on what stance the US takes to Chinese incursions on its own interests, in for example the South China Seas.

He may of course choose to ignore naval intelligence, or they themselves might be poopdecking themselves at the possible implications of sharing intelligence with the commander in chief. Anyway let's see.
 

Malcolm Redfellow

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It does look quite likely that ISIS won't hold any territory then though. They're being crushed in Syria and Iraq.

How do you launch an assault on a phantom? Continue Obama's drone war?
No president, repeat — NO president, undertakes foreign adventures without strong support from his security and military advisers. So look there.

What is as sure as night follows day is that President Trump is likely to be dealing with a major domestic terrorism situation. There have been recently an average of one a year:
  • 5th August 2012: the Oak Creek, Wisconsin, massacre (six dead, done by a white supremacist);
  • 15th April 2013: the Boston Marathon bombing (three dead, but 264 injured, claimed to be Islamic inspired, but Kyrgyzstani rather than ISIS, US-resident since childhood);
  • 2nd December 2015: the San Bernadino shootings (fourteen dead, 22 injured: again Islamicist, but home-grown);
  • 12th June 2016: the Pulse nightclub, Orlando (49 dead, 53 injured: killer claimed an Islamist motive, but widely assumed to have homophobic hate crime elements).
Meanwhile more than one American in every 10,000 (i.e. 33-34,000 in total) dies from gun-fire every year. With the sad-but-likely probability of a major gun event, we'd need to wonder just how President ("I love the NRA") Trump might react. We know he is firmly for Second Amendment rights, will reverse all Obama executive actions to impose new background checks, and is against "gun-free" areas in places like schools. He has said he favours "right-to-carry" across all 50 states.
 

Dame_Enda

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From twitter:

Steven Pifer
‏@steven_piferObama extends #Ukraine-related sanctions on #Russia to March 2018. So Trump would have to cancel, not just let them expire in March 2017.
 

Mick Mac

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It does look quite likely that ISIS won't hold any territory then though. They're being crushed in Syria and Iraq.

How do you launch an assault on a phantom? Continue Obama's drone war?
If the Jihad were limited to ISIS it would be simple but its not even close. The ideology of Jihad is a target for action of whatever nature not necessarily bombs. When the Saudi funded jihadis left Afghanistan after the Soviet war they returned home and spread radicalism and civil war. When our boys come home to Europe they might still be willing to play their part. What networks will have allowed them to move around Europe. Who will have encouraged them to go down that path.

No shortage of enemies even if ISIS were defeated which they will not be since I dont think there is the manpower to totally wipe them out.

Mick
 

GDPR

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Congratulations America, you've elected an 8 year old girl to the Presidency.
 


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