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Exchequer deficit at end-Oct 2010 €14.4 billion


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davidcochrane
The Exchequer deficit, at end-October 2010 was €14.4 billion compared to €22.7billion at end-October 2009. The overall Exchequer position for the first ten months of the year means that the Budget Day targets remain valid.
  • Tax receipts in the first ten months of the year amount to €24.7 billion.
  • Corporation tax receipts are €238 million greater than anticipated.
  • The year-on-year rate of decline in tax revenues now stands at 5.4%
[ame="http://www.scribd.com/doc/40741339/Information-Note-on-end-October-Exchequer-Returns"]Information Note on end-October Exchequer Returns[/ame]

[ame="http://www.scribd.com/doc/40741444/Exchequer-Final-Statement-October"]Exchequer Final Statement October[/ame]
 

grafter1

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David - what "target remains valid"

Is it?
3 Bn; 4Bn; 5Bn; 6Bn; 7Bn; 8Bn?

Does it even matter anymore?

What are the odds on Sean Whelan saying this is good news and it means that the adjustment for the next 4 years remains at a mere 15Bn (assuming growth of 2.75% per annum which is unlikely of course)
 

CorkHurler

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Its important to remember that the monthly exchequer returns are now increasinly distorted by the shift in government revenue in recent years.

The oft quoted €33bn revenue and €53bn spending are net of "appropriations in aid", essentially PRSI and Health levy. In 2005 these made up €10bn of gross government spending and this year will be €17bn (due to the increase in the rates and raising the ceiling on PRSI contributions).

So the true picture is €50bn in receipts and c€72bn in expendiure. GNP was €131bn last year so there must be plenty of scope to reduce spending from €72bn (55% of GNP). So essentially we are already a high tax and extremely high spending economy even before Gilmore's €7.5bn in tax rises (50% of the €15bn adjustement needed).
 

Holy Cow

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Another corner turned?
 

adrem

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David - what "target remains valid"

Is it?
3 Bn; 4Bn; 5Bn; 6Bn; 7Bn; 8Bn?

Does it even matter anymore?

What are the odds on Sean Whelan saying this is good news and it means that the adjustment for the next 4 years remains at a mere 15Bn (assuming growth of 2.75% per annum which is unlikely of course)
I think the target they are referring to is that set on budget 2010 (ie in the Dail on December 2009) when they set out what the expected revenues and expenditures for the year would be.

In fairness - they (DoF) have had their budget numbers way closer to actual this year than any other year in the past decade and more.

I reckon November will probably disappoint though so I don't think they'll actually hit the full year number.
 

Holy Cow

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In fairness - they (DoF) have had their budget numbers way closer to actual this year than any other year in the past decade and more.
Hardy amazing considering we are getting pretty close to rock bottom.
 

needle_too

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Hardy amazing considering we are getting pretty close to rock bottom.
Ireland is miles from rock bottom.
You havent even had any real cuts yet.
 
G

Gimpanzee

In fairness - they (DoF) have had their budget numbers way closer to actual this year than any other year in the past decade and more.
In the absence of a pattern, I'd guess it is the stopped clock telling the right time.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Current expenditure is higher in 2010 than current expenditure in 2009 and our tax receipts are still falling. Nothing new here.

IMF are mere days away at this stage.
 

Cassandra Syndrome

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Lennie on Six one News claiming these figures are fabulous. Corporation Tax is down nearly 10% from this time in 2009, how is that evidence of an increase in exports?

VAT and income tax are great as well? Back to 2002 levels in nominal terms, mid 90s in real terms? If things are so great how comes the 10 year yield is at a record spread from the base discount rate at 530bps? 450bps above the Bund?
 

Holy Cow

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Lennie on Six one News claiming these figures are fabulous. Corporation Tax is down nearly 10% from this time in 2009, how is that evidence of an increase in exports?

VAT and income tax are great as well? Back to 2002 levels in nominal terms, mid 90s in real terms? If things are so great how comes the 10 year yield is at a record spread from the base discount rate at 530bps? 450bps above the Bund?
The man does not look well at all. For the good of himself he should jack it in.
 

Harmonica

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In fairness - they (DoF) have had their budget numbers way closer to actual this year than any other year in the past decade and more.
Is this dumb luck or has something changed inside the DoF?

The year-on-year rate of decline in tax revenues now stands at 5.4%. Taxes were projected to end the year down 6% on 2009.
Does this just mean the DoF estimates have become worst case so they don't look so bad when final numbs come in? It seems to be a bit like the way all the road projects are suddenly coming in earlier than scheduled - easy to do this if deliberately buffer with large contingencies.
 

scobieman

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niall blaney i think was on the last word when matt cooper gave him the figures.a bit like comical ali in iraq he said everything was fine and that the country was going great!.with this state of denial the sooner the IMF come in the better
 

Holy Cow

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niall blaney i think was on the last word when matt cooper gave him the figures.a bit like comical ali in iraq he said everything was fine and that the country was going great!.with this state of denial the sooner the IMF come in the better
They are at the door. Its no longer a matter of IF they will arrive, its now WHEN.
 

kerdasi amaq

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The IMF are scum. Do think for a minute that they will set anything right.:mad:
 

Holy Cow

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The IMF are scum.
They are, but its our own fault. The current government could have been booted out of FG went against Lisbon. We could have taken to the streets and brought the country to a standstill over NAMA, yet we did not.

We deserve the IMF for allowing FF to rob the country blind.
 
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