• Due to a glitch in the old vBulletin software, some users were "banned" when they tried to change their passwords at the end of February. This does not apply after the site was converted to Xenforo. If you were affected by this, please contact us.



Exit Poll: Demographics of party support

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,224
NB "F" = Farmers.

FF (Local election):
Male 23%
Female 21%

Age:
18-24 14%
25-34 20%
35-44 17%
45-54 25%
55-64 22%
65+ 29%

Social Class:
ABC1 22%
C2DE 22%
F 33%

Dublin 14%
Rest Leinster 27%
Munster 24%
Connaught-Ulster 26%

Urban 18%
Rural 29%


FG (Local election):

Social Class:
ABC1 25%
C2DE 20%
F 32%

Dublin 15%
Rest Leinster 27%
Munster 25%
Connaught-Ulster 24%

Urban 20%
Rural 28%

SF (Local election):
Male 13%
Female 12%

Age:
18-24 15%
25-34 14%
35-44 12%
45-54 14%
55-64 13%
65+ 9%

Social Class:
ABC1 8%
C2DE 17%
F 11%

Dublin 11%
Rest Leinster 11%
Munster 12%
Connaught-Ulster 16%

Urban 11%
Rural 15%

Greens (Local election):
Male 8%
Female 11%

Age:
18-24 17%
25-34 14%
35-44 10%
45-54 8%
55-64 7%
65+ 6%

Social Class:
ABC1 13%
C2DE 6%
F 1%

Dublin 18%
Rest Leinster 5%
Munster 7%
Connaught-Ulster 6%

Urban 12%
Rural 4%

Labour (local election):

Social Class:
ABC1 6%
C2DE 7%
F 3%

Dublin 8%
Rest Leinster 6%
Munster 7%
Connaught-Ulster 3%

Urban 7%
Rural 4%
 
Last edited:


Gin Soaked

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 25, 2016
Messages
4,311
Saw that this morning.

Interesting but one caveat: take Dublin and FG. 15% is sh1t on a base of 23% nationally. But elections are fought in individual constituencies. Which have massive class biases.

Which is why SF are bombing in the Stillorgan Ward in the LE, and DLR still does not have a SF TD. Admittedly this is an extreme example.

Now with Maria Bailey's claim revelations, I wonder if she will be dumped there in a GE. A smart party machine would throw her under the bus.
 

wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,693
Its a bit pointless trying to analyse polls which are inaccurate to begin with. :)
 

luggage

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 1, 2010
Messages
608
FF % of over 65's is greater than the combined 18 -24 and 25 - 34 age groups. Those are not good numbers.
 

wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,693
FF % of over 65's is greater than the combined 18 -24 and 25 - 34 age groups. Those are not good numbers.
FF are getting higher votes than in the exit poll. If old people deny voting for them, how much more likely are young people to deny voting for them? Polls are being shown to be of no use to anyone other than media talking heads.
 

luggage

Well-known member
Joined
Jul 1, 2010
Messages
608
FF are getting higher votes than in the exit poll. If old people deny voting for them, how much more likely are young people to deny voting for them? Polls are being shown to be of no use to anyone other than media talking heads.
Are we back to a shy FF support again? Like a soft Casey vote? If these polls are anyway indicative then it is an issue for FF. It will be interesting to see the breakdown after the final count.
 

wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,693
Are we back to a shy FF support again? Like a soft Casey vote? If these polls are anyway indicative then it is an issue for FF. It will be interesting to see the breakdown after the final count.
Its more an issue with polls, people lie. I think I promised to vote for about 5 councillors, all went off happy thinking I meant #1s. Technically, I didn't lie but I certainly misled. :)
 

Lord Talbot

Well-known member
Joined
May 29, 2013
Messages
3,914
As usual people are too embarrased to publicly admit voting FF, but revert to their tribal instincts in the privacy of the polling booth.
 

Baron von Biffo

Well-known member
Joined
May 16, 2007
Messages
12,039
Exit poll on concerns about illegal immigrants coming illegally and "freeloading off the State" by party. Includes 61% of FG, an unclear number of FG (possibly around half), 65% SF, 23% Greens, 46% Labour, and 59% of Inds.

Diagram.

The most sad item is that 76% agreed with the statement "I am tired of listening to so called experts/elites who don't speak for me".

Even if the question was obviously framed to get that result.
 

Barroso

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 1, 2011
Messages
3,969
The most sad item is that 76% agreed with the statement "I am tired of listening to so called experts/elites who don't speak for me".

Even if the question was obviously framed to get that result.
Yes, several of those questions are worded to prompt a specific response. The one about "freeloading" is a particularly appalling type of leading question, and despite being obviously designed to prompt a YES response, only (!!!!!) 53% agreed with it.
I'd wager that the same question (actually there are 3 separate parts to it which should have been asked in 3 separate questions) asked in a neutral format would elicit a much lower percentage of agreement.
 

Breanainn

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 23, 2014
Messages
2,936
Yes, several of those questions are worded to prompt a specific response. The one about "freeloading" is a particularly appalling type of leading question, and despite being obviously designed to prompt a YES response, only (!!!!!) 53% agreed with it.
I'd wager that the same question (actually there are 3 separate parts to it which should have been asked in 3 separate questions) asked in a neutral format would elicit a much lower percentage of agreement.
You could argue we already have the (more) neutral version, when only 29% disagreed about immigration being beneficial on the whole.
 

wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
32,693
You could argue we already have the (more) neutral version, when only 29% disagreed about immigration being beneficial on the whole.
Most of us have had positive experiences with Polish and Fillipino workers, Rumanian gangsters and pickpockets are a different question.
 

Barroso

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 1, 2011
Messages
3,969
I came across a very interesting breakdown of voter support in a series of recent Catalan polls, with some similar results.
Of the seven parties, three are past their sell-by date - PP, PSC and PDeCat; two - ERC and C's - get most of their support from the middle-aged, with lesser support among the youth and little support among the aged; and two - Podemos & CUP - gain their support mainly from the young.
It looks as if we may be in a somewhat similar situation here, although FG has made strenuous attempts at capturing the youth vote with their "modernising" referendums. It looks as though they are failing, though with the young turning towards the Greens. You didn't catch the screen with the FG age breakdown, by any chance?
 

Dame_Enda

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
53,224
I came across a very interesting breakdown of voter support in a series of recent Catalan polls, with some similar results.
Of the seven parties, three are past their sell-by date - PP, PSC and PDeCat; two - ERC and C's - get most of their support from the middle-aged, with lesser support among the youth and little support among the aged; and two - Podemos & CUP - gain their support mainly from the young.
It looks as if we may be in a somewhat similar situation here, although FG has made strenuous attempts at capturing the youth vote with their "modernising" referendums. It looks as though they are failing, though with the young turning towards the Greens. You didn't catch the screen with the FG age breakdown, by any chance?
No, sorry.
 

shiel

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 14, 2011
Messages
17,156
NB "F" = Farmers.

FF (Local election):
Male 23%
Female 21%

Age:
18-24 14%
25-34 20%
35-44 17%
45-54 25%
55-64 22%
65+ 29%

Social Class:
ABC1 22%
C2DE 22%
F 33%

Dublin 14%
Rest Leinster 27%
Munster 24%
Connaught-Ulster 26%

Urban 18%
Rural 29%


FG (Local election):

Social Class:
ABC1 25%
C2DE 20%
F 32%

Dublin 15%
Rest Leinster 27%
Munster 25%
Connaught-Ulster 24%

Urban 20%
Rural 28%

SF (Local election):
Male 13%
Female 12%

Age:
18-24 15%
25-34 14%
35-44 12%
45-54 14%
55-64 13%
65+ 9%

Social Class:
ABC1 8%
C2DE 17%
F 11%

Dublin 11%
Rest Leinster 11%
Munster 12%
Connaught-Ulster 16%

Urban 11%
Rural 15%

Greens (Local election):
Male 8%
Female 11%

Age:
18-24 17%
25-34 14%
35-44 10%
45-54 8%
55-64 7%
65+ 6%

Social Class:
ABC1 13%
C2DE 6%
F 1%

Dublin 18%
Rest Leinster 5%
Munster 7%
Connaught-Ulster 6%

Urban 12%
Rural 4%

Labour (local election):

Social Class:
ABC1 6%
C2DE 7%
F 3%

Dublin 8%
Rest Leinster 6%
Munster 7%
Connaught-Ulster 3%

Urban 7%
Rural 4%
FG age missing.
 

owedtojoy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 27, 2010
Messages
46,722
I came across a very interesting breakdown of voter support in a series of recent Catalan polls, with some similar results.
Of the seven parties, three are past their sell-by date - PP, PSC and PDeCat; two - ERC and C's - get most of their support from the middle-aged, with lesser support among the youth and little support among the aged; and two - Podemos & CUP - gain their support mainly from the young.
It looks as if we may be in a somewhat similar situation here, although FG has made strenuous attempts at capturing the youth vote with their "modernising" referendums. It looks as though they are failing, though with the young turning towards the Greens. You didn't catch the screen with the FG age breakdown, by any chance?
The epitaph of both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael has been written many times, and each time been wrong.

Both parties are catch-all populist parties that try to please the electorate and various pressure groups with broadly centrist, conservative policies. They have been protean and resilient enough to survive many setbacks and difficulties.

I think the Irish as a people distrust ideologues and ideological-driven parties - otherwise the Progressive Democrats would have survived, or the Labour Party would have prospered when it adopted a Socialist message in the 1960s.

The reasons for this are historical, and maybe a topic for another thread.
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top