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F.G. should call SNAP ELECTION!!!!


Eric Cartman

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 16, 2010
Messages
1,741


Firstly, that is for you Labour supporters: your lying, Democratic Leftover leader lied and campaigned in an extremely populist style in the last election and you have broken every single promise in your irresponsible "Every Little Hurts" ad. Your elderly leaders desperately wanted one last hurrah in Government (and gold plated pensions, European sinecures) and don't care a tinker's curse about you and your party. By contrast, F.G. made few promises and its supporters aren't as disappointed: its vote has held up.

I don't quite believe that Labour will be annihilated Green Party or Progressive Democrat style, but your T.D. numbers will be halved at least. F.F. and S.F. will be the big winners, rather than independents. Serves you right!

Fine Gael has seen a slide in its support: polls consistently place its support <30%. In fact a few reckon F.F. is neck and neck. Extraordinary. See here:

http://www.guthanphobail.net/pobalbhreitheanna.htm

The trends are undeniable.

Still, one point I would make is that many of these polls are in fact worthless because of the high number of undecided/independents. Take the Millward Brown Sunday Ind. Poll 16.2.13: 27% 'undecided'.

Excellent blog here (redcresearch) concerning the desire of a new party:
RedC » Blog Archive » Do Undecided Voters = Desire For New party? - Research & Marketing Ltd

Evidently between 26-32% (increasing with the passage of time) "don't know"/"wouldn't vote" vote out there, based upon Red C polls. Certainly many are un-engaged/uninterested or fickle voters but I reckon there is certainly a large vote there to be tapped into.

On election day, how would they vote? I suspect many are disillusioned left wing voters that might reluctantly back Labour over S.F., fringe left but I reckon an even greater proportion are right-leaning. Numerous pools show people are angry about the Croke Park Agreement and probably abortion too. Perhaps if F.G., rather than cave to Labour demands for a renegotiation of the Programme for Government put it up to them and dared them to jump. What would happen then?

Parties' support is more fragmented than any other time in Irish history, the PR-STV system rewards the larger party. Considering as I do that F.G.'s likely support is likely to exceed 30% and perhaps the gap between themselves and F.F. greater, I would think that they wouldn't lose as many seats as you would imagine. They would attract more transfers too. On the basis of the recent Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, 24th March 2013, the seats are predicted accordingly:

Fianna Fail’s long march forward halted…for now? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, 24th March 2013 | politicalreform.ie

Fine Gael 28% (NC), Fianna Fail 24% (down 2%), Sinn Fein 14% (down 2%), Labour 13% (down 1%), Green Party, Independents and Others 21% (up 3%).

Fine Gael 58, Fianna Fail 43, Sinn Fein 19, Labour 16, Green Party, Independents and Others 22.
I think the figure for Others 22 is too high (Ming Flanagan? Mick Wallace? Clare Daly? Would any of these be elected?), and F.G. too low. I'd say mid-sixties is more reasonable.

What if a new Right-ish party campaigned and attained 10-15 seats? This party could form a coalition with F.G. and could implement mutually agreeable policies? Would Direct Democracy Ireland be such a party, put the proposed Croke Park 2 Agreement up for a national plebiscite (surely to fail)? Or would LIBERTAS/Declan Ganley organize and mobilize in the next few months, as has been rumoured?

For F.G. to consider a snap election, it must:

  • Hammer F.F. (replay "Crisis: Inside the Cowen Government" several times on RTÉ)
  • Not acquiesce to Labour demands: marginalize them and dare them to jump (they won't)
  • Veer right
  • Encourage to formation of a minor party to sweep disaffected right wing votes, with which it could form a Government
With F.F., S.F. on about 20% apiece, Labour <10% and support for ULA/Independents low and static, Fine Gael could capitalize. Remember when F.F. was supposed to lose seats in the 2007 election, but in fact gained? Enda Kenny may in fact turn out to be their greatest assest.
 

wombat

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 16, 2007
Messages
31,939
Kenny is not silly:lol:
 

tigerben

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 21, 2010
Messages
4,621
MM and FF would love a snap election, did you see MM on RTE news . Beaming, he would have done a jig and danced on his head only he took seriously what the people on the doorsteps told him and his become the new DR. Frasier Crane with the motto " I'm listening". It plays well for FG to have labour, it's taking the heat and the bad press and FGers will be delighted.
 

NewGoldDream

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 13, 2004
Messages
20,929
Website
-
To what end? To bury Labour? To increase FF and SF presence when FG have no hope of forming a single party Government? To find an even more compliant Coalition partner?
 

firefly123

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 8, 2009
Messages
28,155
Jebus. That is one gloatingly cocky OP there.
I mean this with the greatest of respect but McEntee got the gig because of the exceptional circumstances that led to the bye-election in the first place. I wonder if another candidate went forward would fine Gael have won?
 

eoghanacht

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 18, 2006
Messages
33,340
I can't wait until all those who want a new party actually get up of their holes and do something about it other than telling the rest of us how so many people want it.

Paddy would rather wait for someone else to do it so he can find something he doesn't agree with about it or emigrate :lol:
 

Porkypie

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 14, 2012
Messages
4,240
FG polled 8115 less votes than in the General election and you want a snap election. :confused:
 

Tough Paddy

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 3, 2010
Messages
11,505
Yesterday was an excellent result for FG but calling a snap election now! You're having a laugh!
 

ger12

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
48,255
Two years of special advisors and their salaries, State and Judicial appointments for "friends", stopping planning investigations, Reillys cronyism and Hogans messes and you want FG to trash FF in a general election?

:lol:
 

Tough Paddy

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 3, 2010
Messages
11,505
Two years of special advisors and their salaries, State and Judicial appointments for "friends", stopping planning investigations, Reillys cronyism and Hogans messes and you want FG to trash FF in a general election?
I take it the spineless Greens are not yet ready for another general election! :lol:
 

ger12

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2011
Messages
48,255

Tough Paddy

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 3, 2010
Messages
11,505
Neither is FG ;)
FG is the largest party in the state. I think you'll find that they are more than most in a much better position to fight any general election! In particular, more so than your beloved Green Party!
 

Cellach

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 8, 2009
Messages
5,094


Firstly, that is for you Labour supporters: your lying, Democratic Leftover leader lied and campaigned in an extremely populist style in the last election and you have broken every single promise in your irresponsible "Every Little Hurts" ad. Your elderly leaders desperately wanted one last hurrah in Government (and gold plated pensions, European sinecures) and don't care a tinker's curse about you and your party. By contrast, F.G. made few promises and its supporters aren't as disappointed: its vote has held up.

I don't quite believe that Labour will be annihilated Green Party or Progressive Democrat style, but your T.D. numbers will be halved at least. F.F. and S.F. will be the big winners, rather than independents. Serves you right!

Fine Gael has seen a slide in its support: polls consistently place its support <30%. In fact a few reckon F.F. is neck and neck. Extraordinary. See here:

http://www.guthanphobail.net/pobalbhreitheanna.htm

The trends are undeniable.

Still, one point I would make is that many of these polls are in fact worthless because of the high number of undecided/independents. Take the Millward Brown Sunday Ind. Poll 16.2.13: 27% 'undecided'.

Excellent blog here (redcresearch) concerning the desire of a new party:
RedC » Blog Archive » Do Undecided Voters = Desire For New party? - Research & Marketing Ltd

Evidently between 26-32% (increasing with the passage of time) "don't know"/"wouldn't vote" vote out there, based upon Red C polls. Certainly many are un-engaged/uninterested or fickle voters but I reckon there is certainly a large vote there to be tapped into.

On election day, how would they vote? I suspect many are disillusioned left wing voters that might reluctantly back Labour over S.F., fringe left but I reckon an even greater proportion are right-leaning. Numerous pools show people are angry about the Croke Park Agreement and probably abortion too. Perhaps if F.G., rather than cave to Labour demands for a renegotiation of the Programme for Government put it up to them and dared them to jump. What would happen then?

Parties' support is more fragmented than any other time in Irish history, the PR-STV system rewards the larger party. Considering as I do that F.G.'s likely support is likely to exceed 30% and perhaps the gap between themselves and F.F. greater, I would think that they wouldn't lose as many seats as you would imagine. They would attract more transfers too. On the basis of the recent Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, 24th March 2013, the seats are predicted accordingly:

Fianna Fail’s long march forward halted…for now? Sunday Business Post-Red C poll, 24th March 2013 | politicalreform.ie



I think the figure for Others 22 is too high (Ming Flanagan? Mick Wallace? Clare Daly? Would any of these be elected?), and F.G. too low. I'd say mid-sixties is more reasonable.

What if a new Right-ish party campaigned and attained 10-15 seats? This party could form a coalition with F.G. and could implement mutually agreeable policies? Would Direct Democracy Ireland be such a party, put the proposed Croke Park 2 Agreement up for a national plebiscite (surely to fail)? Or would LIBERTAS/Declan Ganley organize and mobilize in the next few months, as has been rumoured?

For F.G. to consider a snap election, it must:

  • Hammer F.F. (replay "Crisis: Inside the Cowen Government" several times on RTÉ)
  • Not acquiesce to Labour demands: marginalize them and dare them to jump (they won't)
  • Veer right
  • Encourage to formation of a minor party to sweep disaffected right wing votes, with which it could form a Government
With F.F., S.F. on about 20% apiece, Labour <10% and support for ULA/Independents low and static, Fine Gael could capitalize. Remember when F.F. was supposed to lose seats in the 2007 election, but in fact gained? Enda Kenny may in fact turn out to be their greatest assest.
So you reckon Fine Gael should actually reduce the historic majority the government has in the Dáil? Capital suggestion, well done.
 

williewatch

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 30, 2009
Messages
3,122
Clearly on the basis of current opinion polls only a FG/FF coalition can form the next government.

I cannot see either SF or Labour wanting to be in coalition with either of them.
 

Tough Paddy

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 3, 2010
Messages
11,505
Clearly on the basis of current opinion polls only a FG/FF coalition can form the next government.

I cannot see either SF or Labour wanting to be in coalition with either of them.
The shinners would do anything to get into power for 2016. Hence, the courting between them and Fianna Fail!
 

Bud Light

Well-known member
Joined
May 10, 2010
Messages
901
There will be no GE until 2016. Both parties believe that there will be a radical improvement in the economy by then and both Kenny and Gilmore believe that the Govt is doing a great job. Neither see any benefit in a GE. This Govt will run it's full term up to the last hour possible. Don't under estimate the desire also to keep FF and SF away from any 1916 centenary commemorations.

Political anoraks will have to make do with the locals and EP elections and the occasional by-election.
 
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