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FF 28% - FG 17% - Lab7% - SF 7% - PD 1% - Grn 6% - Ind 3%


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davidcochrane
FF 28% - FG 17% - Lab7% - SF 7% - PD 1% - Green 6% - Ind 3%

3% wouldn't vote, 6% are undecided, 6% refused to answer and 15% didn't know

From a RedC poll conducted independently for OpenEurope (Lisbon analysis here).
 


aodh_rua

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They look like the kind of numbers the published polls have before they elimate the don't knows and model their way to 100%. It's hardly that relevant if it doesn't give the full picture.
 
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davidcochrane
3% wouldn't vote, 6% are undecided, 6% refused to answer and 15% didn't know

This poll, where party support stands, may not be as strong as SBP's tomorrow if they've done another RedC poll, namely as it includes some from the UK, which of course means some may not be able to vote, and of course the refuseds, don't knows are being counted as such - page 28 & 29 of the RedC poll for more info.
 

factual

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David Cochrane said:
FF 28% - FG 17% - Lab7% - SF 7% - PD 1% - Green 6% - Ind 3%

3% wouldn't vote, 6% are undecided, 6% refused to answer and 15% didn't know

From a RedC poll conducted independently for OpenEurope (Lisbon analysis here).
Excellent result for Sinn Féin now the =third largest part in the 26 counties and growing very fastl.

A vindication of Sinn Féin's anti-Lisbon position and the decision to use Mary Lou rather than Gerry Adams.

This is a real step change compared to previous polls for Sinn Féin.
 

The Earl of Desmond

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PDs on 1% - so why exactly is there a PD cabinet minister?

What does Harney have on Cowen or is really as simple as that there isn't a single FF or Green with the policy vision to be a proper Minister for Health.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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arnold lane said:
Is that excluding Don't Knows?
Just 67% give a voting intention, so if we exclude the other 33%, then it's FF 36%, FG 25%, Labour 10%, SF 10%, Greens 9%, PDs 1% and the 4% Indo (all rounded to nearest whole number).
 

factual

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FutureTaoiseach said:
arnold lane said:
Is that excluding Don't Knows?
Just 67% give a voting intention, so if we exclude the other 33%, then it's FF 36%, FG 25%, Labour 10%, SF 10%, Greens 9%, PDs 1% and the 4% Indo (all rounded to nearest whole number).
An excellent result for Sinn Féin showing a step change in Sinn Fein support as a result of the NO stance and vindivating the high proile of Mary Lou as opposed to Gerry Adasms. This now redraws the map of politics, putting Sinn Féin at (joint) third place. The slow-release effect of the IRAs 2005 statement has also helped to facilitate this jump in support.

Labour are sinking fast as a result of adopting a YES position. Sinn Féin are in the fast lane overtaking them.
 

DeGaulle

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factual said:
Labour are sinking fast as a result of adopting a YES position. Sinn Féin are in the fast lane overtaking them.
Actually, last months RedC poll produced EXACTLY THE SAME RESULT for SF and Labour.
 

kerrynorth

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FutureTaoiseach said:
arnold lane said:
Is that excluding Don't Knows?
Just 67% give a voting intention, so if we exclude the other 33%, then it's FF 36%, FG 25%, Labour 10%, SF 10%, Greens 9%, PDs 1% and the 4% Indo (all rounded to nearest whole number).
Excluding Don't Knows et al (29%) it comes out as: FF 40% FG 24% LAB 10% SF 9% GP 9% PD 1% OTHERS 7%
 

Tiernanator

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factual said:
David Cochrane said:
FF 28% - FG 17% - Lab7% - SF 7% - PD 1% - Green 6% - Ind 3%

3% wouldn't vote, 6% are undecided, 6% refused to answer and 15% didn't know

From a RedC poll conducted independently for OpenEurope (Lisbon analysis here).
Excellent result for Sinn Féin now the =third largest part in the 26 counties and growing very fastl.

A vindication of Sinn Féin's anti-Lisbon position and the decision to use Mary Lou rather than Gerry Adams.

This is a real step change compared to previous polls for Sinn Féin.
I agree a good result for us but we just don't seem to be able to break through to double figures which is what we need to do, although it is progress all the same. However I am not so sure whether you are gloating over Labour's demise or just being yourself Factual. The problem for us is that while we and Labour may be polling the same at present they get transfers and we don't. I think it is probably time for Sinn Féin to end it's antipathy towards advocating our supporters to vote for other parties. I think in reality we need to have a proper debate as to which party deserves our voter's transfers. I think this should be done a manner that helps both us and our agenda but also the deprived and less well off in society. So maybe we need to formally adopt a strategy whether or not another party reciprocates in the first instance.

If for instance we did go with Labour in an informal manner by asking our voters to give them second preference then I think this may break down barriers more than politiking and point scoring. I am not saying it has to be Labour in fact it might be preferable to go with one of the larger parties but we would have to expect little to begin with. However in the longer term I think it would pay off and we would start to get transfers. If we cannot accept doing this on a party or countrywide basis then maybe we could do it on a constituency basis where it would benefit progressive politicians in all parties. Our voters could make the difference in many seats.
 

wysiwyg

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If this reflects core voters .. then FF could be in a world of trouble.

FF got a fantastic result in the last election, because in the final run up to the polling day, the majority of the "Don't knows" broke to FF on the back of pretty blatant scaremongerin tactics regarding them being the only party capable of a continuation of economic success.

Since last summer, that has proven to be a fallacy. In bad times, the likliehood is that "dont knows" will swing harshly away from FF.

However, the next GE is a long way away, so there is plenty of time to steady the ship if the right policies are implemented. If they are not, then there's trouble ahead.

However, on a brighter note for them, they only polled 32% in 2004 Local elections, so a 28% core vote, allied with a hopeful 3-4% garnered on the basis of local work and geography, might save a lot of FF councillors. FG on the other hand polled 29% in 2004, and if their core is at 17%, there is a huge gap to be made up to get back to those figures. FF could end up having another bad local election, but having it not look so bad because of the poor performance last time, while FG could have a bad performance simply because they did so well last time out.

Funny how numbers crunch huh..

All the rest of the parties are within their usual margins of error
 

factual

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Tiernanator said:
factual said:
David Cochrane said:
FF 28% - FG 17% - Lab7% - SF 7% - PD 1% - Green 6% - Ind 3%

3% wouldn't vote, 6% are undecided, 6% refused to answer and 15% didn't know

From a RedC poll conducted independently for OpenEurope (Lisbon analysis here).
Excellent result for Sinn Féin now the =third largest part in the 26 counties and growing very fastl.

A vindication of Sinn Féin's anti-Lisbon position and the decision to use Mary Lou rather than Gerry Adams.

This is a real step change compared to previous polls for Sinn Féin.
I agree a good result for us but we just don't seem to be able to break through to double figures which is what we need to do, although it is progress all the same. However I am not so sure whether you are gloating over Labour's demise or just being yourself Factual. The problem for us is that while we and Labour may be polling the same at present they get transfers and we don't. I think it is probably time for Sinn Féin to end it's antipathy towards advocating our supporters to vote for other parties. I think in reality we need to have a proper debate as to which party deserves our voter's transfers. I think this should be done a manner that helps both us and our agenda but also the deprived and less well off in society. So maybe we need to formally adopt a strategy whether or not another party reciprocates in the first instance.

If for instance we did go with Labour in an informal manner by asking our voters to give them second preference then I think this may break down barriers more than politiking and point scoring. I am not saying it has to be Labour in fact it might be preferable to go with one of the larger parties but we would have to expect little to begin with. However in the longer term I think it would pay off and we would start to get transfers. If we cannot accept doing this on a party or countrywide basis then maybe we could do it on a constituency basis where it would benefit progressive politicians in all parties. Our voters could make the difference in many seats.
Sinn Féin are rising in the polls. 9% is 50% better than the 6% we were getting back as recently as Feb this year. I think thats a good idea regarding transfers (and note that Sinn Féin is rapidly becoming less and less transfer repellant as the slow release effects of various initiatuves up in the six counties seep through) and I would myself certainy without question regard Labour as the next most obvious party, sharing the concern for the least well off and labour values converning workers rights and public services. Obviously Labour are not perfect (because they are not as committed to left wing politics as I would like) but they are the nearest there is , in my opinion. So that is an open door you are pushing against, as far as I am concerned.
 

Tiernanator

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Messages
345
factual said:
Tiernanator said:
factual said:
David Cochrane said:
FF 28% - FG 17% - Lab7% - SF 7% - PD 1% - Green 6% - Ind 3%

3% wouldn't vote, 6% are undecided, 6% refused to answer and 15% didn't know

From a RedC poll conducted independently for OpenEurope (Lisbon analysis here).
Excellent result for Sinn Féin now the =third largest part in the 26 counties and growing very fastl.

A vindication of Sinn Féin's anti-Lisbon position and the decision to use Mary Lou rather than Gerry Adams.

This is a real step change compared to previous polls for Sinn Féin.
I agree a good result for us but we just don't seem to be able to break through to double figures which is what we need to do, although it is progress all the same. However I am not so sure whether you are gloating over Labour's demise or just being yourself Factual. The problem for us is that while we and Labour may be polling the same at present they get transfers and we don't. I think it is probably time for Sinn Féin to end it's antipathy towards advocating our supporters to vote for other parties. I think in reality we need to have a proper debate as to which party deserves our voter's transfers. I think this should be done a manner that helps both us and our agenda but also the deprived and less well off in society. So maybe we need to formally adopt a strategy whether or not another party reciprocates in the first instance.

If for instance we did go with Labour in an informal manner by asking our voters to give them second preference then I think this may break down barriers more than politiking and point scoring. I am not saying it has to be Labour in fact it might be preferable to go with one of the larger parties but we would have to expect little to begin with. However in the longer term I think it would pay off and we would start to get transfers. If we cannot accept doing this on a party or countrywide basis then maybe we could do it on a constituency basis where it would benefit progressive politicians in all parties. Our voters could make the difference in many seats.
Sinn Féin are rising in the polls. 9% is 50% better than the 6% we were getting back as recently as Feb this year. I think thats a good idea regarding transfers (and note that Sinn Féin is rapidly becoming less and less transfer repellant as the slow release effects of various initiatuves up in the six counties seep through) and I would myself certainy without question regard Labour as the next most obvious party, sharing the concern for the least well off and labour values converning workers rights and public services. Obviously Labour are not perfect (because they are not as committed to left wing politics as I would like) but they are the nearest there is , in my opinion. So that is an open door you are pushing against, as far as I am concerned.
Glad you feel like this Factual, would be good to get a debate started on it. Maybe you or I could open a new thread on the issue.
 

eurocrat

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Not sure there is much point putting out figure with the undecideds still in it. Its make is look like there is very little support for the establishment parties. I'm sure Dave and Libertas would not like this impression ;) Thanks to Kerrynorth for calculating the adjusted figures.

What were the corresponding figures for last months RED C?
 
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The Earl of Desmond said:
PDs on 1% - so why exactly is there a PD cabinet minister?

What does Harney have on Cowen or is really as simple as that there isn't a single FF or Green with the policy vision to be a proper Minister for Health.
Because no one wants the poison chalice.

Cutest gobsite in the cabinet is Michael Martin - if there is one minestry you want to have during a recession it's Foreign Affairs - no responsibility for making any cuts that will affect your constituents
 

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