FF internal poll... meltdown

adamirer

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Polls leave Fianna Fail fearing total decimation - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie

A series of private opinion polls show that Fianna Fail would lose far more seats than the 20 currently predicted if there was a sudden election.

The result of the secret polls have left senior party figures in "a state of fear'' that the party is poised to experience a 2002-style Fine Gael wipeout in Dublin and the country.

The polls also reveal that the electorate is poised to "take out'' the party's senior ministers rather than more humble backbenchers.

The party hierarchy is seriously "disturbed" by three constituency polls in Dun Laoghaire, Dublin South West and Mayo.

In Dun Laoghaire the polls suggest that the high profile FF Ministers Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews are both in real danger of losing their seats. Fine Gael, in contrast, is poised to win two while Labour will almost definitely take a seat.(Duh - Gilmore is in DL)

The results are believed to be even more stunning in Dublin South West, where Fianna Fail currently holds two of the four seats.

A well-respected former minister told the Sunday Independent that the figures there show that both Pat Rabbitte and Brian Hayes have almost two quotas each.

When it comes to the collapsed Fianna Fail vote, the humble FF backbench TD Charlie O'Connor is ahead of the high profile Innovation Minister Conor Lenihan.
I'm staggered by the DSW result... both FG & Lab on 2 quotas?? How!!! I asusmed Sean Crowe would be a shoe in this time round... wow.... Kebabs going is interesting..


in Mayo
Mr Cowen's high profile ministerial protege Dara Calleary is under more pressure than controversial Beverley Flynn.

"These figures show we're on course to win less than five seats in Dublin," said a Fianna Fail member, adding that if the figures from the three constituencies are replicated nationwide, "no cabinet minister, not even the Tanaiste up in Donegal, is safe.''
Very interesing that its the Ministers and not the backbenchers facing the music...Brian Lenihan might be the only Minister in Dublin safe...
 


bada bing

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Jesus Mr smug himself Hayes will love that!! Tho i bet they'll only run 1 in DSW.
 

kerrynorth

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I take it they mean that Labour would win an extra seat in DL - 2 FG and 2 Labour.

The poll is plausible and using actual names is more reliable than just a party support poll.

FG taking 2 in DSW would be a stunner though.
 

pjoz

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Does make interesting reading but you'd have to treat source with extreme caution. Crowe will take a seat and its really up to lab or fg to run a second candidate, manage their vote properly and hope the FF vote splits evenly between lenihan and o connor creating an opportunity to eliminate both.
 

clonycavanman

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'You can have Fianna Fail, or Pat Rabitte.'
Punters: 'Could we have a bit more choice please?'
 

kerrynorth

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Does make interesting reading but you'd have to treat source with extreme caution. Crowe will take a seat and its really up to lab or fg to run a second candidate, manage their vote properly and hope the FF vote splits evenly between lenihan and o connor creating an opportunity to eliminate both.
On the basis of what the alleged poll says it looks as if SF will lose out. On the poll FF vote would halve to circa 20% but labour and FG between seem to have the vast majority of the remainder meaning that SF or any other party are just not a factor in the constituency any longer.
 

bada bing

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Does make interesting reading but you'd have to treat source with extreme caution. Crowe will take a seat and its really up to lab or fg to run a second candidate, manage their vote properly and hope the FF vote splits evenly between lenihan and o connor creating an opportunity to eliminate both.
Will Crowe taking a seat depend if Labour have a credible running mate with Rabbite?

In theory FF should have a quota here.
 

nonpartyboy

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Polls leave Fianna Fail fearing total decimation - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie



I'm staggered by the DSW result... both FG & Lab on 2 quotas?? How!!! I asusmed Sean Crowe would be a shoe in this time round... wow.... Kebabs going is interesting..


in Mayo

Very interesing that its the Ministers and not the backbenchers facing the music...Brian Lenihan might be the only Minister in Dublin safe...
It seems to me that the government as so removed from the people(not the 15% of ff diehards) that they don't actually realise how despised they really are, hatred is not too strong a word for many people.
 

kerrynorth

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In theory FF should have a quota here.
The poll says that there is a quota between both FFers but it is badly split between them which is the problem.
 

grassroots

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This tallies with the RED C polls for the Dublin Region. These show FF in the teens with FG over 30% and LAb just behind-call it a tie. Repeat that on election day and there are very few safe FF seats in Dublin. Bear in mind that there would be a similar urban effect in Galway, Limerick and Cork plus the commuter belt.

I would expect to see a lot of FF TDs with long service retiring soon.
 

wombat

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I take it they mean that Labour would win an extra seat in DL - 2 FG and 2 Labour.

The poll is plausible and using actual names is more reliable than just a party support poll.

FG taking 2 in DSW would be a stunner though.
Hang on a second, the Indo is publishing a FF "leaked poll". Remember the Sindo is mostly ready for printing on Thursday, except for sports and front page. April Fool guys:lol:
 

dotski_w_

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Hang on a second, the Indo is publishing a FF "leaked poll". Remember the Sindo is mostly ready for printing on Thursday, except for sports and front page. April Fool guys:lol:
I'd certainly not be getting carried away with this alright - they've clearly not even shown the figures to the journo - so a party poll - of unknown quality, being mentioned over a pint to a polcor .... sure you'd get more reliable stuff here!
 

pjoz

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On the basis of what the alleged poll says it looks as if SF will lose out. On the poll FF vote would halve to circa 20% but labour and FG between seem to have the vast majority of the remainder meaning that SF or any other party are just not a factor in the constituency any longer.
Crowe will maintain a core vote that will make him a contender for seat even if its a bad election for SF nationally. I see him taking a seat. You have to treat this poll with caution. For one I don't believe FG have almost 2 quotas.

Will Crowe taking a seat depend if Labour have a credible running mate with Rabbite?

Don't see the two being strongly correlated. Cant see FG running 2. Would probably seriously backfire, Labour running two on the other hand if they manage the split could put serious pressure on FF. If the FF vote was to split fairly even were do the transfers come from.

In theory FF should have a quota here.
In theory they have more than a quota. Give them 27% as a scenario and a fairly even split between candidates and both are a long way from reaching quota and from being eliminated. Could see Hayes, Rabbite and Crowe outpolling FF, dependent then on how close 2nd labour candidate is. Socialist party will have a few thousand core vote that wont be much help to FF. If carved up properly by the opposition this is a constituency were you could oust FF, even with them holding a quota of 1.5
 

hiding behind a poster

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Jesus Mr smug himself Hayes will love that!! Tho i bet they'll only run 1 in DSW.
I don't see what you find "smug" about Brian Hayes. The fact that he knows what he's talking about shouldn't be held against him. Anyway, there was a newspaper report a couple of months back (I forget which paper), saying FG would be running more than one candidate virtually everywhere, barring a couple of particularly exceptional circumstances. At the time, I think O'Donoghue was still CC, so Kerry South as a 2-seater was probably one, with maybe Dublin North-West and Central perhaps the others.
 

hiding behind a poster

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'You can have Fianna Fail, or Pat Rabitte.'
Punters: 'Could we have a bit more choice please?'
Certainly, sir. Fine Gael, and Sinn Fein. There are more than 2 parties in DSW, you know.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Will Crowe taking a seat depend if Labour have a credible running mate with Rabbite?

In theory FF should have a quota here.
There are plenty of Labour councillors - any of Mick Duff, Marie Corr and Eamon Maloney would be credible running-mates.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Crowe will maintain a core vote that will make him a contender for seat even if its a bad election for SF nationally. I see him taking a seat.
Well the SF vote wasn't great across DSW in the locals, only at around 15% - despite having a former TD (Crowe) running in one ward. So while they're definitely in contention, they're also very vulnerable to a second Labour candidate - especially if, at some point in the count, there are surplus FG votes looking for a home.

You have to treat this poll with caution.
Agreed, that's a given with stories like this.

For one I don't believe FG have almost 2 quotas.
Neither do I.


Don't see the two being strongly correlated. Cant see FG running 2. Would probably seriously backfire,
Can you explain how FG running 2 would seriously backfire?

Labour running two on the other hand if they manage the split could put serious pressure on FF. If the FF vote was to split fairly even were do the transfers come from.
Nowhere. Eventually one gets eliminated, and elects the other.


Socialist party will have a few thousand core vote that wont be much help to FF.
No, they only have about 1,000-1500 core vote, according to the last couple of general elections. And Mick Murphy lost his council seat last June, despite conditions for a hard-left candidate being as favourable as they'll ever be.

If carved up properly by the opposition this is a constituency were you could oust FF, even with them holding a quota of 1.5
No, you're into mathematical freakology there. 2 candidates and 1.5 quotas in a 4-seater is a seat, no matter how you look at it. You have to remember as well that in this scenario FF are down to their core vote, which will transfer internally extremely well.
 


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