FF internal poll... meltdown

drjimryan2

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South West is always a one to watch.......

Rabitte and Hayes are shoe-ins, simple enough, crowe and a second labour will then take the third with oconnor and the remaining one of this two to take the last.......

Prediction2 lab, 1 ff, 1 fg........

Lenihan will fall to 'the curse of poll toppers' of which hayes and crowe are already members........

To loose a td/minister of conors caliber is a big loss, however those who are suprised with talamans showing simply dont understand the realities of life as a td......one would think that the ministers good work and high profile would carry votes, however whilst lenihan is representing the country in a very professional manner, oconnor is making calls to hse, hospitals, and who ever else is required to help the lazy..........

It brings to the fore two real questions:

would a single seat consitiuency system work better?

Are we fundamentally a corrupt society where people are singularly self interested and will do anything to 'get off' with things, with the current td system helping them along?
 


hiding behind a poster

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True, but my money would be on Looney.
From what I've heard, Looney didn't make the cut for the interview. Anyway, his base is split between two Dail constituencies, which doesn't help him. I'd say it'll be Marie Corr, whose advantage is that she'd take votes from Crowe in his home area, which is crucial for Labour. Because if their second candidate is close to Crowe on the first count, transfers give them a great chance.
 

drjimryan2

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most comentators accept that conor has been an excellent junior in his three postings..........

another possibility is however, talaman has always said that he would retire at 66, perhaps hell be given a 'job' in the last days and conor a 'free run' with oconnor as his election director?
 

hiding behind a poster

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most comentators accept that conor has been an excellent junior in his three postings..........

another possibility is however, talaman has always said that he would retire at 66, perhaps hell be given a 'job' in the last days and conor a 'free run' with oconnor as his election director?
Green pills on Sundays, drjim. The yellow ones are for during the week.
 

Grumpy Jack

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There is no guarantee Crowe will be the SF candidate. There is talk in Tallaght that he's not up for the fight next time round. Still hasn't recovered from losing his seat in 2007. Cathal King has been mentioned as the SF candidate.

Rabbitte and Hayes are shoo-ins - the scrap to be their running mates will be fun after this poll if both having two quotas is a possibility. And will either of them want a strong running mate beside them?

To be honest, the real fun in DSW will be watching Conor Lenihan and Charlie O'Connor tearing each other apart in the hope that one of them might cling to a FF seat. I remember the battle between them in 2002 - all sorts of dark shenanigans went on. Leaflets were destroyed, posters torn down and two of their canvassers actually came to blows. Roll on the election. Can't wait to watch this car crash.
 

Northsideman

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Mount Street should not have needed an internal poll to tell them FF are in melt down in Dublin, they just need to get out knocking. Truth is very few will survive in Dublin, those closley associated with Cowen are doomed. If there is no heave then watch for TDs distancing themselves from him. His appointment was always going the be a disaster. The perception of him in Dublin is sh1te.

The time after the next election will present FF with a chance to get back to basics and be what FF should always have been, a republican party that supports enterprise but with a social conscience. The FF brand is very seriously damaged and can only be fixed with major surgery and the electorate are going to provide this. There is a pool of young radical talent in FF and they need to start asserting themselves.
 

pjoz

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15% will be enough to get Crowe elected next time.

FG running two will split vote, probably not to any major degree but I'd see both FF being ahead of 2nd FGer and 2nd labour, allowing for more tranfers to FF.While FF transfer extremely well between their own it'l be tough to get a seat if the opposition parties carve it up correctly,a simple platform of anyone but FF. You bring up Murphy losing his local seat and i'll use him to illustrate my point, FFr got eliminated, pushed other over line with transfer as your theory suggests.What if you took out the handful of transfers he got from other opposition parties would the FF still have made it over the line.

Now I said it could be made tough on FF at 27% if they split there own vote, the opposition could make it extremely difficult on them. You can crunch numbers to make them tell you whatever story you want. This is a tough constituency for FF and the opposition should work together to squeeze them.

I've been talking of a scenario of FF on 27%, how do you think my theory would pan out if FF polled 3,4 or 5% lower?
 

ergo2

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How many were polled in Mayo - isn't 500 the minimum for some degree of reliabiity + or - 3%?

,
 

Pauli

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While all this makes for immensely welcome reading, I can't help questioning the source. An "internal FF poll" for me carries a major "health warning". How much of this is spin? Who is the target audience for this? The FF diehards in the cumann, basically urging them to get the finger out and start preparing for the next election now? It's more than a bit dodgy as far as I'm concerned.
 

Tomas Mor

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Interesting that Bev Cooper Flynn not be under pressure but PR man Calleary is. May be the old story of your best bet is to have name of being under pressure, suits Bev. Still I think Mr. Bean will hold on as he has all North Mayo and Erris to himself, and with the local papers like Laffey's Western People, and Mayo news backing him, he should sail home safely.
 

FakeViking

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I take it they mean that Labour would win an extra seat in DL - 2 FG and 2 Labour.
Would this be utterly unprecedented: 3 Govt TD's, one a Minister and two pretend Ministers, all losing their seats?

Would we the sheeple do that to them?


And would there be

a) street parties to celebrate the loss of the likes of Monageer Andrews or "unfortunately people live longer" Hanafin?

b) weeping and gnashing of teeth?

I'll sponsor the party in my street!
 

dotski_w_

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Would this be utterly unprecedented: 3 Govt TD's, one a Minister and two pretend Ministers, all losing their seats?
its quite possible, but I do wonder if the purpose of the 'leak' was to cop Hanafin/Andrews on that there's no chance of both of them being elected in DL, one candidate on their own has a better chance of holding the seat they aren't certain of, and the other could bulk up the ticket in Dub Sth where (a) they'd be a shoe-in, and (b) their 2nd candidate will most likely be fighting it out with Ryan for the last seat.
 

DeGaulle 2.0

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:lol:
15% will be enough to get Crowe elected next time.

FG running two will split vote, probably not to any major degree but I'd see both FF being ahead of 2nd FGer and 2nd labour, allowing for more tranfers to FF.While FF transfer extremely well between their own it'l be tough to get a seat if the opposition parties carve it up correctly,a simple platform of anyone but FF. You bring up Murphy losing his local seat and i'll use him to illustrate my point, FFr got eliminated, pushed other over line with transfer as your theory suggests.What if you took out the handful of transfers he got from other opposition parties would the FF still have made it over the line.

Now I said it could be made tough on FF at 27% if they split there own vote, the opposition could make it extremely difficult on them. You can crunch numbers to make them tell you whatever story you want. This is a tough constituency for FF and the opposition should work together to squeeze them.

I've been talking of a scenario of FF on 27%, how do you think my theory would pan out if FF polled 3,4 or 5% lower?
FF got 39% in DSW at the last election. They are down 16% nationally in the polls, more in Dublin. FF will get less than 20% in DSW at the next election.

The worst-case scenario for FF is that their 2 candidates each get about 8% of the vote on the first count, which would make it very difficult for either of them to get elected. It has happened before that a party lost 2 seats in this constituency - it happened to Labour in 1997.

FG should definitely run 2 candidates. While Labour would be the favourites to gain a seat here because they would get more transfers, FG did outpoll Labour in 2007.
 

John Kalahan

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Decimation is the killing of every tenth member of a cohort

Decimation is the killing of every tenth member of a cohort.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(Roman_army)

Personally I consider the killing every tenth Fianna Fáil politician to be way over the top.


Better to confiscate the assets of all Fianna Fáil members and use the funds to set against the Bank losses
 

Murph

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One has to find the source of this from FF very suspect.

seems to me the 2 FF lads fear Crowe more than the solidly safe Rabbitte and Hayes, and this is the real focus of the leak to undermine voters confidence in giving crowe their no 1's, and also to rally their own troops into action.

Possible also to give FG and Lab a false sense of security by running two candidate each. They must think every day is April 1st!
 

FakeViking

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Decimation is the killing of every tenth member of a cohort
It's also worth remembering that decimation is carried out by the other nine in the cohort:

and the soldier on whom the lot fell was executed by his nine comrades
In our case it won't be fellow FFers, it'll be the general public that'll reject them!
 

dotski_w_

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While Labour would be the favourites to gain a seat here because they would get more transfers, FG did outpoll Labour in 2007.
Well, by 21 first preferences! Given the several thousand other left wing candidates lower down, LP would have won a straight fight had they been competing for the last seat. Locals also bear out the polling evidence that LP should be far ahead of FG here now.

Tallaght Central LP got 34.1% to FG's 20.0% (with nearly 15% voting for SP or PBP). In Tallaght Sth was closer, but still LP 28% and FG 23.5%. Not sure of the boundaries, but I'd have thought that the additional votes outside those core wards wouldn't come near to bridging the gap on first prefs, and the left wing transfers would see them pull further ahead.

There'd appear to be little harm in FG running a second candidate, but if they were pulling in a second seat here they'd be in overall majority territory nationally.
 

adamirer

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While all this makes for immensely welcome reading, I can't help questioning the source. An "internal FF poll" for me carries a major "health warning". How much of this is spin? Who is the target audience for this? The FF diehards in the cumann, basically urging them to get the finger out and start preparing for the next election now? It's more than a bit dodgy as far as I'm concerned.
I'd suggest the audience is the two fingers to Cowen wing of the pary. They might be gutless, but if Leahy's bookm is anyhting to go by, the amount of internal spin in FF is ferocious
 

John Kalahan

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Their will be a decimation twice over in Fianna Fail before the next election

It's also worth remembering that decimation is carried out by the other nine in the cohort:



In our case it won't be fellow FFers, it'll be the general public that'll reject them!
Ther will be a decimation twice over in Fianna Fail before the next election.


Many of the old guard will be put to the sword ( blamed while they retire to collect their fat pensions)

This will allow a "New Fianna Fáil" to emerge to fight the election which will disassociate itself from the old guard.

Its will be a variation on the good band bad bank idea except this will create a Good Fianna Fail and a Bad Fianna Fail. ( Along the idea proposed by Gerry Beades)


Already some such as John McGuinness have set up camp in Good Fianna Fail.

Good Fianna Fail cannot have too many TDs transferred to it yet as to do so would undermine the present Government
 


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