FF internal poll... meltdown

caulfield-the-yank

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It looked like FF meltdown for quite a while there.

But never underrate the lemming instinct and/or deafeatist mindset of the opposition.

Perhaps relevant in that regard, there are some interesting comments on a current thread called "FG/Labour would allow asylum seekers to work in Ireland".
 


jpc

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Come the next election a good 30% of the electorate, maybe a little more, will troop into those voting booths, and no matter how much they've moaned and given out about Fianna Fáil for the previous 5 years they'll pick up their silly auld pencils and mark 1,2,3 FF stop, just like they've always done and their father before that and his father before him, up Dev ya boy ya.

Ireland is cursed with a significant complacent lumpenproletariat peasantry who are too dumb, too craven, too servile and too beaten down and cringingly fearful of their masters to do anything different.
I think you are right
"Shure the other crowd etc"
That mentality is being spun the whole time.
Only when the money really stops flowing.
Only then will the reality bite.
 

ergo2

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Maybe if Eurocitizen could get Factual to change from SF to FF the two of them could put up a strong case for Ff on this board as election approaches

Or maybe Eurocitizen and Factual are the same person,

FF should also get Digout to come back to this board as he or she would really stir up the lumpenproleteriat ( whoever they may be ) in FF to go out to vote.
 

spineless

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Come the next election a good 30% of the electorate, maybe a little more, will troop into those voting booths, and no matter how much they've moaned and given out about Fianna Fáil for the previous 5 years they'll pick up their silly auld pencils and mark 1,2,3 FF stop, just like they've always done and their father before that and his father before him, up Dev ya boy ya.

Ireland is cursed with a significant lumpenproletariat peasantry who are too dumb, too craven, too servile and too beaten down and cringingly fearful of their masters to do anything different.
I agree. Too many favours owed to FF. An example, way back in the mid 1980s a school friend if mine applied for An garda Siochana. H equiete confidently told his classmates that his dad will have a word in the ear of the local FF TD who would canvas Sean Doherty RIP minister for Justice at the time. guess who was the only one to be called for garda training college.I told my dad this at the time and he replied. Son, "thats the way it is in Ireland".
 

rockofcashel

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Much as though many people here don't want to hear it, yes FF are in meltdown, but no, they will not be wiped out at the next election.

In fact, unless they do something unbelievably stupid, they'll likely return on the right side of 50 seats. I'd almost bet my house on them returning more than 45.

This is for a number of reasons.

1. Bad an all as they have been, and the news has been for the past 2 years.. they can still count on at least 25% support in the polls.

2. You can add another 5-8%, possibly 10%, support due to "local brand" candidates. It's amazing how many people will tell you they won't vote for FF, but will vote for example "for Mattie", cause he's the local fellow.

3. Despite their poll figures, neither Labour nor FG are in a position to cause maximum damage to FF.

FG are only a couple of points over their actual result in the last GE, and on 33/34%, are unlikely to add any significant numbers to their current crop. They'll be lucky to hit 60 seats in my opinion.

Labour simply don't have the candidates or organisation to pick up significant numbers of seats. They'll do well in Dublin, maybe Cork.. but really will only pick up 7/8 seats there. Countrywide, probably be lucky to pick up 12/15 overall, leaving them around 35 seats.

4. No other party will pick up significantly. SF will add 4, maybe 5 tops to their current number.

So who's going to take all the seats people think FF will lose ?

Winning a GE is a huge ask (trust me)... bad as a FF candidate might be, being able to start with 12/15% FPV which 2 candidates will if they divide their constituencies well, is a huge bonus

FF's actual biggest problem, is if their candidates lose their nerves and start to cannibalise each others areas for votes... 30% divided tightly into 2 15%'s assures 1 seat, and gives a party a hell of a shot at winning 2 in a 4 seater... dividing it 20/10.. and you have no chance of 2
 

bored and fussy

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Much as though many people here don't want to hear it, yes FF are in meltdown, but no, they will not be wiped out at the next election.

In fact, unless they do something unbelievably stupid, they'll likely return on the right side of 50 seats. I'd almost bet my house on them returning more than 45.

This is for a number of reasons.

1. Bad an all as they have been, and the news has been for the past 2 years.. they can still count on at least 25% support in the polls.

2. You can add another 5-8%, possibly 10%, support due to "local brand" candidates. It's amazing how many people will tell you they won't vote for FF, but will vote for example "for Mattie", cause he's the local fellow.

3. Despite their poll figures, neither Labour nor FG are in a position to cause maximum damage to FF.

FG are only a couple of points over their actual result in the last GE, and on 33/34%, are unlikely to add any significant numbers to their current crop. They'll be lucky to hit 60 seats in my opinion.

Labour simply don't have the candidates or organisation to pick up significant numbers of seats. They'll do well in Dublin, maybe Cork.. but really will only pick up 7/8 seats there. Countrywide, probably be lucky to pick up 12/15 overall, leaving them around 35 seats.

4. No other party will pick up significantly. SF will add 4, maybe 5 tops to their current number.

So who's going to take all the seats people think FF will lose ?

Winning a GE is a huge ask (trust me)... bad as a FF candidate might be, being able to start with 12/15% FPV which 2 candidates will if they divide their constituencies well, is a huge bonus

FF's actual biggest problem, is if their candidates lose their nerves and start to cannibalise each others areas for votes... 30% divided tightly into 2 15%'s assures 1 seat, and gives a party a hell of a shot at winning 2 in a 4 seater... dividing it 20/10.. and you have no chance of 2
I believe Independents will make up a big part of the next dail, maybe not good, but from what i hear around everyone are saying Oh I am going independent next time for sure, and SF too maybe have gains, I think we should watch this space.
 

spidermom

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Relevant to this thread is this...
Fianna Fáil battling disarray with no communications director and grassroots dissent


a few nuggets from the piece..

"It was widely reported in March that Fianna Fáil is €3.6m in debt. The main cause of the debt has been the number of elections and referendum campaigns the party has had to fund in recent years."


and...re the review of local cummans...

Senior party sources say that these problems include inactive units of the organisation, not having a presence on the ground and a membership that is predominantly males in their 50s.
"There is a huge level of inactivity but it is not just the fault of the local organisation. Ministers have not been on the ground enough to explain what is going on," said one senior source.
 

meriwether

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I fail to see the rationale that FF WILL be on at least 30% before the next election.

Why is 30% the floor of their support? Whilst incumbency and organisation is important, do you think it delivers 30% of the vote by itself? Does it fukk, and while FF must always be respected in elections, people are giving them too much respect.

I'm not saying they won't get 30%. Hell, they might get 42%. But a minimum of 30% seems to be an article of faith for some people with little to back it up.

FF's fortunes are tied to the economy. And its not the sort of economy where we hear about a 2% increase in GDP, while at the same time unemployment rises.

Its jobs, simple as. Also, even if the econpmy improves substantially in employment terms pre 2012, FF's universal message that 'only we can manage the economy' is not gone, forever.

We will know FF are back when they are keen to run bye-elections. Are they keen at the moment?
Why not?
 

il toro

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Come the next election a good 30% of the electorate, maybe a little more, will troop into those voting booths, and no matter how much they've moaned and given out about Fianna Fáil for the previous 5 years they'll pick up their silly auld pencils and mark 1,2,3 FF stop, just like they've always done and their father before that and his father before him, up Dev ya boy ya.

Ireland is cursed with a significant lumpenproletariat peasantry who are too dumb, too craven, too servile and too beaten down and cringingly fearful of their masters to do anything different.
Has it occured to you that maybe Ireland has a significant lumpenproletariat opposition who are too dumb, too craven , too lazy and used to a champagne solcialist lifestyle to do anything that would make the voters change , when faced with the choice between dumb and dumber , dumb is still better.
 

rockofcashel

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I fail to see the rationale that FF WILL be on at least 30% before the next election.

Why is 30% the floor of their support? Whilst incumbency and organisation is important, do you think it delivers 30% of the vote by itself? Does it fukk, and while FF must always be respected in elections, people are giving them too much respect.

I'm not saying they won't get 30%. Hell, they might get 42%. But a minimum of 30% seems to be an article of faith for some people with little to back it up.

FF's fortunes are tied to the economy. And its not the sort of economy where we hear about a 2% increase in GDP, while at the same time unemployment rises.

Its jobs, simple as. Also, even if the econpmy improves substantially in employment terms pre 2012, FF's universal message that 'only we can manage the economy' is not gone, forever.

We will know FF are back when they are keen to run bye-elections. Are they keen at the moment?
Why not?
Only going on some constituency polls I've seen with names on papers Meri.. they're still getting around 30%... damn all transfers though
 

dotski_w_

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1. Bad an all as they have been, and the news has been for the past 2 years.. they can still count on at least 25% support in the polls.
No, they've been on at least 17% in the polls (MRBI) or 24% (Red C). I don't think they've got as high as 25% in any poll for some while now (maybe one RedC in the last 6 months).
3. Despite their poll figures, neither Labour nor FG are in a position to cause maximum damage to FF.

FG are only a couple of points over their actual result in the last GE, and on 33/34%, are unlikely to add any significant numbers to their current crop. They'll be lucky to hit 60 seats in my opinion.

Labour simply don't have the candidates or organisation to pick up significant numbers of seats. They'll do well in Dublin, maybe Cork.. but really will only pick up 7/8 seats there. Countrywide, probably be lucky to pick up 12/15 overall, leaving them around 35 seats.
Sorry Roc, but that's rubbish. LP would get that sort of seats on 17-18%, and are 27-32% in the polls. To only gain 7/8 seats in Dublin and Cork, assuming that you're only giving them a gain of about 2 in Cork and 5/6 in Dublin. But LP are 34% in Dublin, and have a rake of very good candidates in Dublin. Even on their performance in the LEs (when they were performing much worse in the polls and by everyone's agreement had a poor day) they'd do significantly better than that.

Winning a GE is a huge ask (trust me)... bad as a FF candidate might be, being able to start with 12/15% FPV which 2 candidates will if they divide their constituencies well, is a huge bonus
but that assumes that they have the 25-30% in the first place. They don't. Also there will be a significant number of FF TDs not running next time, given the difficulties they will face, and that will add to the national swing against them. Plus, last election aside, FF often do worse in GEs than polling suggests, not better.

I think tbh ROC that your experience ha made you see them as being invincible, or close to it, whereas they had a good 'on the day' performance last time out (and SF had a bad one), but it's not always like this, and in the current climate, all bets are off. FF have never been in this zone before, so their past successes are not relevant in an election where the top 2 polling parties are FG and LP. In that scenario, they will leak votes to those parties that would never have travelled before.

it's a new game, and they're losing it big time.
 
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flavirostris

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I have said it before and I will ay it again. If the people of this country are so stupid or desperate enough to elect elect someone with a satisafaction level of less than 30%, then I'm leaving the country, because at the point, there will be no recovery and Ireland could well go the way of Zimbabbwe.
Check out this nugget from 2010. Why hasn't Keith-M packed his bags and left the country? Like his FFriend Ray D'Arcy.
 

spineless

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Check out this nugget from 2010. Why hasn't Keith-M packed his bags and left the country? Like his FFriend Ray D'Arcy.
D'Arcy is not a man of his word. He was a wonderful cheerleader for Bertie along with the likes of Brendan O Connor and others. Do they not feel the shame:?
 

topcat4

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D'Arcy is not a man of his word. He was a wonderful cheerleader for Bertie along with the likes of Brendan O Connor and others. Do they not feel the shame:?
Irish celebrity's have no shame, Ray Darcy is, and always will be, a tit. Brendan O Connor is a reprehensible individual.
 


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