FF leadership heave:

adamirer

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Hey, we've 3 threads about Kenny resigning/heaved, ignoring the fact that there is a vote of no confidence in Cowen next Tuesday, and he's just been held up as significantly responsible for the dilemma we are in. Surely this debate should be about the next FF leader, or like FF'er keep saying about the oppisition "maybe they don't want to be in power?".

FF until this year, have never been behind not only FG, but also Labour. This is only happened on Cowens watch. On the one poll here Labour were 2nd placed, FF were a mere point behind.

Two months on, FF are now 11% behind the 2nd placed party, FG and 15% behind Labour. Its worth saying again. In third place by a distance of 11%. Thats a bigger percentage than Labour got in the 2007 GE. Cowen has just been eviscorated by two banking reports. His defence has been 'no one would have done better'.

So, FF have a leader who is seen as directly culpable for a large chunk of the mess we're in. Whats FF's alternative?

Lenihan - undergoing serious health treatment.
Dempsey - massively divisive.
Hanafin - capable but battling to hold her seat and recently demoted.
D Ahern - an Iain Duncan Smith, it wouldn't work.
Coughlan - eh....
Martin - has been fairly anonomous in ForAff despite a strong stance on Israel, but relatively undamaged so far by the economy collapse... kept head down.

Martin looks like the only possible replacement, unless Hanafin makes a play. Hanafin could be an inspired choice. Smart, articulate, a bit of resentment athow she was treated having walked the social welfare minefield...

Will any of these pipe up? Will John McGuinness & Mattie McGrath tow the party line after months of pretending to be FF in opposition?
 


redger

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May 21, 2010
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Hey, we've 3 threads about Kenny resigning/heaved, ignoring the fact that there is a vote of no confidence in Cowen next Tuesday, and he's just been held up as significantly responsible for the dilemma we are in. Surely this debate should be about the next FF leader, or like FF'er keep saying about the oppisition "maybe they don't want to be in power?".

FF until this year, have never been behind not only FG, but also Labour. This is only happened on Cowens watch. On the one poll here Labour were 2nd placed, FF were a mere point behind.

Two months on, FF are now 11% behind the 2nd placed party, FG and 15% behind Labour. Its worth saying again. In third place by a distance of 11%. Thats a bigger percentage than Labour got in the 2007 GE. Cowen has just been eviscorated by two banking reports. His defence has been 'no one would have done better'.

So, FF have a leader who is seen as directly culpable for a large chunk of the mess we're in. Whats FF's alternative?

Lenihan - undergoing serious health treatment.
Dempsey - massively divisive.
Hanafin - capable but battling to hold her seat and recently demoted.
D Ahern - an Iain Duncan Smith, it wouldn't work.
Coughlan - eh....
Martin - has been fairly anonomous in ForAff despite a strong stance on Israel, but relatively undamaged so far by the economy collapse... kept head down.

Martin looks like the only possible replacement, unless Hanafin makes a play. Hanafin could be an inspired choice. Smart, articulate, a bit of resentment athow she was treated having walked the social welfare minefield...

Will any of these pipe up? Will John McGuinness & Mattie McGrath tow the party line after months of pretending to be FF in opposition?

I hope that FF do nothing to save themselves, but as you say, if they did, Hanafin may in fact be an inspired choice.

There is something rarely mentioned about the polls and voting intentions. IMHO, the Dubs love having a taoiseach, and assume the taoiseach should be based in Dub.

What happened when FF offered them Bertie?? he may not have been able to string 2 words together, and was visible as a chancer from 500 miles away, but he was a dub and they chose him.

Now, Enda - culchie, and whatever they say to peoples faces, the dubs just think "we dont want a culchie". Who won the locals and Euro's overall? - FG
But who won in Dublin?? Why ??

Now to Gilmore - which is the only major party to give the voters a Dub TD as potential taoiseach??? Correct
And what is happening to the polls in Dub since he took over??? Biggest party in the locals in Dub??? correct again

What happened to FF in Dub when Cowen took over??? Euros? Locals anyone??

Now to Hanafin. A dublin based FF leader not contaminated by the sh1te???
Actually badly treated by "the culchies"?

bug*er, I shouldn't have pointed it out to them.
 

Tommythecommy

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Jun 10, 2010
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197
Fianna Fáil cannot go into the next election with Cowen in Charge

Fianna Fáil cannot go into the next election with Cowen in Charge.

He will be jettisoned soon.

The big problem is collective cabinet responsibility and the support of the party for their leader and Government
 
B

Boggle

I hope that FF do nothing to save themselves, but as you say, if they did, Hanafin may in fact be an inspired choice.

There is something rarely mentioned about the polls and voting intentions. IMHO, the Dubs love having a taoiseach, and assume the taoiseach should be based in Dub.

What happened when FF offered them Bertie?? he may not have been able to string 2 words together, and was visible as a chancer from 500 miles away, but he was a dub and they chose him.

Now, Enda - culchie, and whatever they say to peoples faces, the dubs just think "we dont want a culchie". Who won the locals and Euro's overall? - FG
But who won in Dublin?? Why ??

Now to Gilmore - which is the only major party to give the voters a Dub TD as potential taoiseach??? Correct
And what is happening to the polls in Dub since he took over??? Biggest party in the locals in Dub??? correct again

What happened to FF in Dub when Cowen took over??? Euros? Locals anyone??

Now to Hanafin. A dublin based FF leader not contaminated by the sh1te???
Actually badly treated by "the culchies"?

bug*er, I shouldn't have pointed it out to them.
Interesting theory. Have very very little time for Hannafin though.

In her favour would be the likelihood of lenihan's support if he cannot run himself (he'll prob be rewarded with Tanaiste).
 

Rebel CNC

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Any move against Cowen would lead to an election. None of the main candidates want that right now. They know FF are going to get hammered next time out so might as well let Cowen carry the can.

FG on the other hand are up against the most incompetent, corrupt, stale and generally hated government in the history of tthe state and yet are now drifting below 30% which is unbelievable for what was the main opposition party.

Even the most die-hard Kenny supporters are now coming around to the point of view that Kenny is electoral poison and that he has to go.
 

adamirer

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Messages
454
Lets keep this to FF leadership, theres several threads running on Kenny already, which really shouldnt be the story of the week when FF are down to 17%!!!!
 

Disillusioned democrat

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Fianna Fáil cannot go into the next election with Cowen in Charge.

He will be jettisoned soon.

The big problem is collective cabinet responsibility and the support of the party for their leader and Government
I actually believe with the media in US and UK stirred up he has to know he has to go, and interestingly enough may have to go before the VoNC, because if FF forced to vote confidence in him they'll suffer for it when the inevitable general election comes about, so we may have an answer a lot sooner than we expect.
 

Edo

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Truth is Admirer - nobody cares.

Because there will be no leadership heave in FF

Because there is no appetite for change in FF this side of a GE

Because nearly all FF tds are getting their posters printed up with the smallest FF logos in history and are promoting themselves as great "local" men and women

Because they know they are toast and are getting ready for opposition - actually I know a few who are actively looking forward to opposition and the chance to rebuild.
 

Tommythecommy

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How can you question the Taoiseach's competence without questioning the Cabinet

I actually believe with the media in US and UK stirred up he has to know he has to go, and interestingly enough may have to go before the VoNC, because if FF forced to vote confidence in him they'll suffer for it when the inevitable general election comes about, so we may have an answer a lot sooner than we expect.
How can you question the Taoiseach's competence without questioning the Cabinet's

Very difficult to sent the same front bench before the electorate
 

Maximus Cynicus

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They know FF are going to get hammered next time out so might as well let Cowen carry the can.
+1

If the latest polls are anything to go by, FF HAVE to go into the next election with Cowen as leader. Then, we have taken what the people have said, new brush and all that old pony.......
 

mr_anderson

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Lets keep this to FF leadership, theres several threads running on Kenny already, which really shouldnt be the story of the week when FF are down to 17%!!!!

The reason why Kenny threads appear more frequently is that Cowens (and FFs) future is a foregone conclusion - there is no debate necessary.
 

Disillusioned democrat

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How can you question the Taoiseach's competence without questioning the Cabinet's

Very difficult to sent the same front bench before the electorate
Completely agree - but the VoNC is all about Cowen, so with typical FF self preservation at the top of the agenda it's a very possible scenario - one that Cowen's loyalty to FF is likely make more plausible (as long as deals are done to make sure he's well looked after).
 

anewbeginning

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It's funny to watch the FF decline and their media whores trying to change the subject and focus on the FG leadership, aided of course by the usual fools in FG.

What is most amusing about the current FF condition is they are afraid to ditch their leader because they think a new leader won't have enough time to connect with the electorate, yet if they stick with the current leader they are bound for a large electoral defeat.

The pretender's to Cowen's throne have probably resigned themselves to defeat at the next election and will take over the reigns when FF are in opposition.
 

Victor Meldrew

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A former treasurer of FF in the Haughey/Burke era.
Was that not her father, Des? and by all accounts, (and despite not agreeing with him on most things) he was by all accounts at the "decent end" of the FF gene pool.
 

the agent

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There cannot be a change of leadership in FF without going to the Country to seek a mandate. It would be ridiculous to have another un-elected Taoiseach running the Country. The only credible candidate FF have is Lenny, and right now I am sure he has a bigger battle to win. Cowen will limp on until 2012.
 

Rocky

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To begin with there is no doubt that Cowen is a terrible Taoiseach and a terrible politician in every way possible, who was ********************e in every ministry he ever held. A man who despite having everything handed to him has never achieved anything. It's a fight between himself and Ahern as the worst Taoiseach ever and I'd nearly give to Cowen simply because Ahern had one or two achievements along the way, Cowen has none.

However there is no one who is really any better in Fianna Fail. Of course you can say they couldn't be any worse and you'd be right, but none of them jump out at me as being talented. Not on FFer has achieved anything in any ministry in years and it is definitely the worst FF Parliamentary Party ever.

And I think that is the main reason why no one is calling for Cowen to go. It's not that people don't like Cowen, it's that people don't like Fianna Fail and what them out and the leader isn't the issue, the party is. Cowen does quite beautfiully represent everything which FF is, which is to put in one phrase, a belief that the party is everything.

On another note from a political point of view FGer and Labour members don't want Cowen out. Yes we don't rate anyone else in FF, but people can surprise you and you never know, so I guess there is a fear in both parties that Cowen could leave and we don't what that and hence say quite. There is enough things to attack Fianna Fail out without constantly calling on them to change leader as well.
 

Congalltee

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So who will be the first out to attack Cowen?

Sean Ardagh - Revenge for being let behind once again.
Brian Lenihan - Nothing to lose, as he wasn't to blame for economic mess.
John O'Donoghue - Revenge for being shafted to CC and then out of it.
Dick Roche - Revenge for being Shafted out of Cabinet
Jim McDaid - Revenge for being shafted after Drink/Drive thing
Dermot Ahern - Leadership Pretender
Mary Hanafin - Likewise it would also help her hold her seat.
Noel Dempsey - Thinks he is leadership material.
Frank Fahey - Revenge for being shafted out of Cabinet
John McGuinness - shafted by Cowen.
Michael Martin - Fears losing his seat in 2012, wants to be leader
Michael Mulcahy - Fears losing 2012
Tom Kitt - Vengance
Charlie O'Connor - Fears losing 2012
Noel O'Flynn - Fears losing 2012.
Noel Treacy and other former ministers have lost a fortune on their pensions.
The Senators with expenses issues - Cowen did not exactly help their cause.

and last but not least
Patrick B. Ahern - what one gives, one can take away.

(list adopted from list from December, 2007 on Bertie's troublemakers - as was predicted in that list, it is always that whom you most expect).
 

yehbut_nobut

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Here's a thought - could FF Backbenchers arrange a Tied vote that would need the support of the CC to pass?

It would mean 7 govt TD's abstaining, leaving 78 for (assuming all 78 opposition vote against).

CC passes the motion, Government survives, but Cowen as leader is weakened beyond repair... but the government survives...

Would/could the beasts be that cunning?

Fianna Fáil 75
Green Party 6
Independents 4
Total 85
Ceann Comhairle 1

Fine Gael 51
Labour Party 20
Sinn Féin 4
Independents 3
Total 79
 
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eamonne

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Mar 16, 2010
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anyone intrested in fianna fail leadership would be foolish to go looking for the job now ..much better to let cowen be the one who suffers the inevitable decimation at the next election ..then taking over and 4/5 years to rebuild ...hannafin if she keeps her seat might be the best option they have but Ff will be hammered next election and only fearful backbenchers would create situation where a contest happens pre election.
 
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