FF polling third place behind Lab. A time to reflect?



stewiegriffin

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 20, 2007
Messages
839
Well who knows? It is quite plausible that Royston Brady is the Devil incarnate and the epicentre of all evil in the world.
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,305
If FF is doing this badly now, how badly will it do when the Tribunal stuff comes out? Are we seeing the end of FF?

Regards...jmcc
 

DJP

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
12,616
Well who knows? It is quite plausible that Royston Brady is the Devil incarnate and the epicentre of all evil in the world.
No he just has the maturity of a 15 year old e.g. when he scraped his name into a desk in the TodayFM studios. Yes it really happened.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Joined
Jun 9, 2007
Messages
18,709
If FF is doing this badly now, how badly will it do when the Tribunal stuff comes out? Are we seeing the end of FF?

Regards...jmcc
I don't think so, people thought that about the Canadian Conservatives when they were reduced to two seats in the 1990s, but they re-emerged. FF here wont be discarded in such a way because there is a good degree of familial loyalty behind it, plus a hardcore support that isn't negligible.

The Tribunal stuff should damage Fianna Fail, perhaps much more so now that the gravy train is gone and that people are angry. The extent to which it does so depends on a number of things. Most important are whether Fianna Fail distances itself in time from Ahern and the others in the frame, and also whether there is a large smokescreen kicked up, an attack on the Tribunal's credibility or fairness, for example, or a selective emphasis to draw the eyes of people away from the substantive findings. Fully expect the latter, not so sure about the former, though given Ahern's cowardly lumping of blame for the economic mess on to his successor, Cowen really should feel free now to distance himself as much as possible. I'm not sure he has the vision to do so...
 

Almanac

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 1, 2008
Messages
3,139
Ok now we know you are just kidding.

Bev "I'm entitled to it" Flynn?

Actually. Let her become leader. Please.It should remove the remaining 22% of support.

FF would really need to think outside of the box and quit it with the family dynatys
My comment wasn't intended in any way as an endorsement of Flynn; it was simply the observation that she has the natural qualities- which are in themselves neither morally good nor bad- of a leader. Also that the "corrupt" practices she was guilty of were standard unofficial policy at the time. And listening to the likes of Kevin Myers screech self-righteously at her from his column was a little difficult to take.
 

FutureTaoiseach

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 20, 2005
Messages
7,980
Website
greatdearleader.blogspot.com
My family background is strongly FF and I voted for them until the 2004 local-elections and for COG in Wexford in 2007. As a floating-voter do I count? I think FF have to decide between their leader and their survival at the next GE. Polls are, to use the cliche - a snapshot in time. If the economy recovers before the next election, all bets are off. The problem is that most economists don't believe we will return to growth for some years. And as Finance Minister for almost 4 years, it's not credible for Cowen to try to put some distance between himself and the recession. Yes - it's a global recession but nowhere else in Europe is faced with a projected 10% decline in the size of its economy between this year and next. As Finance Minister he dithered over stamp-duty reform and did nothing to cool down the housing-market when it might have made a difference and when we weren't as dependent on it. I simply can't see him leading a revival of the party other than by some kind of external global economic tide lifting Irish boats once more. The problem is that the position of FF leader is now a poison-chalice and risks tainting Cowen's successor with responsibility for the recession because of his/her presence in Ahern/Cowen's Cabinet where the seeds of this mess were sown. But on the other hand, someone else might at least carry greater credibility with Cowen in terms of economic management (except Brian Lenihan who is Finance Minister) by not having been in the Dept of Finance for 4 years when the seeds of the property-crash were arguably sown.
 

jmcc

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 12, 2004
Messages
42,305
Where will the fragmented FF vote end up? Will we see Labour and SF getting some of the DE demographic or will we see the rise of a more right wing anti mass-immigrationist party hammering FF, Labour and SF in the poorer areas as the recession begins to really hit jobs?

Regards...jmcc
 

Digout

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 2, 2008
Messages
1,389
The Tribunal stuff should damage Fianna Fail, perhaps much more so now that the gravy train is gone and that people are angry. The extent to which it does so depends on a number of things. Most important are whether Fianna Fail distances itself in time from Ahern and the others in the frame, and also whether there is a large smokescreen kicked up, an attack on the Tribunal's credibility or fairness, for example, or a selective emphasis to draw the eyes of people away from the substantive findings. Fully expect the latter, not so sure about the former, though given Ahern's cowardly lumping of blame for the economic mess on to his successor, Cowen really should feel free now to distance himself as much as possible. I'm not sure he has the vision to do so...
I think FF did a very good job of nailing themselves to Ahern during the last 6 months of his reign.
 

QuizMaster

Well-known member
Joined
May 26, 2004
Messages
3,193
Website
www.quizmatic.com
Cheer up FF guys, you will be the kingmakers. That's a very powerful position to be in.
It's actually bad news for the old foe, even though they are #1 in the poll, because you are hardly going to sign up to be their junior partner. You'll back Eamon Gilmore.
 

ballot stuffer

Well-known member
Joined
May 21, 2007
Messages
1,504
I'm not a member of FF but here are my two cents.
To give a bit of sympathy to FF its utterly clear the electorate by and large don't appreciate the scale of the problem with the public finances.
This is on top of the banking crisis is another ming vase to juggle.

Its very difficult for FF to get their message across about badly needed cut backs when at the same time they are seen to be lining the pockets of bankers.
 

feet first

Active member
Joined
Nov 19, 2008
Messages
171
The ratings for FF are at an all time low. Probably they will go a little lower but not too much, this is an opportunity for FF that they may not get again.
Now that FF are not staring at poll results, they can concentrate on running the country.
They should now go for the jugular, and implement the drastic action that is needed.
Go now for the 3 billion cuts that are needed, as at this stage public opinion dosen't matter. For once in your life do what is best for the country
People might even thank you for it.
 

Pauli

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 22, 2006
Messages
1,181
This current crisis represents the biggest challenge, by far, that any government has faced since the foundation of this state. I am NOT a member of FF, and must admit that I have rarely voted FF. However, I respect whatever government is in power, and particularly at this time, I have enormous sympathy for Cowan and Lenihan (both extremely bright and capable individuals) who, in my view, are being unfairly hounded by both the media and opposition. They are fully aware of what a poisoned chailce they were handed by Bertie - the real villain of the piece. For their sake, I hope Cowan brings in new talent ASAP. FF have not been well-served by Mary Coughlan in her role as Tanaiste - she must be replaced immediately by Mary Hanafin, who has recovered some of her old poise, and has the essential ability to think on her feet and is never less than articulate. I also suspect that others within FF, such as Martin and Ahern are playing a poilitical game, hoping to gain from Cowan's predicament. It may well be the time to bring them into the tent.
I would be equally supportive of a FG/LAB government in the same situation; however, they are unlikely to regain power under Enda Kenny. As soon as FG get real and remove Kenny, that is the time when the clock may start ticking as far as this Government is concerned.
Lastly, it may now be impossible for Cowan to turn things around in time for the next election in 2001 or 2012. In his position, I would try to do the honourable thing and make tough, courageous decisions in the "National Interest" which will ensure that history looks far more kindly on his tenure in office - just look at how McSharry has been deified. Cowan is still a young man in political terms, he will have another opportunity to return triumphantly to office.
I think you put your finger on the problem when you "called" Coughlan correctly. The appointment of Coughlan highlights graphically FF's main problem - thre absolute dearth of talent of any kind coming through. Apart from Coughlan, there are others in Cabinet like Cullen and O'Dea who, let's face it, like Coughlan are appointed for geographical reasons, (given that there is no other reason to appoint them to Cabinet positions. If Coughlan, O'Dea and Cullen are deemed cabinet material, just imagine what the rest are like.
 

imokyrok

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 4, 2008
Messages
4,490
Even if you don't like a party there are usually a couple of people in it that you grudgingly admire and think are doing a good job. Brian Lenihan used to be one but not now. I can't think of anyone else tbh. I don't like Dermot Ahern but I liked what he did about hands guns and told him so but one swallow doesn't make a summer. Someone else mentioned B. Flynn :eek: This is a prime example of being out of touch with public sentiment - I'd say her readmission took FF down a few points just on its own. She personifies the self interest and cronyism people now associate with FF. Perhaps it is time to grom some almost unknowns people who after this nightmare has passed will not be associated with it and therefore have some chance of bringing back the votes. People must be able to view FF as a party for the common man and not the fatcats. If you go down this route please choose people who have skills relevant to goverment and the intelligence to learn new ones. What is this fascination with solicitors all about?!

There's a lot of talk about the public not knowing how bad things are etc. That's rubbish. How could we not with friends and neighbours falling like flys and wall to wall gloom on the radio. I think we could take what's necessary if we could see :

1. Those whose greed is responsible for the crisis facing the full rigours of the law and the taxman.

2. High profile measures targeting the finances of those in the top income brackets, especially those who pay little or no taxes currently. This should include the removal of all tax shelters.

Now people will argue that neither of these measures will make a difference to the economy but that is not the point. The point is that to bring "the people" with you these measures need to be taken and taken very publicly.

Lastly could I say that it was complete suicidal lunancy to target children with special needs. Did FF think they were a small group with little consequence for votes? Did they not realise that there isn't a single parent in the country that doesn't think "there but for the grace of god go I"?
 

Dare to Dream

Member
Joined
Feb 12, 2009
Messages
73
It is indeed a dark time for FF and it's supporters. While going for the jugular might seem like a good idea to some, it's a non runner. There's nothing left that can be cut. The economic situation will just spiral downwards, taking the government with it and there's nothing anyone can do now but hang on and hope that when this too does pass that we are somewhere near the Hudson!
 
G

Gimpanzee

Are we seeing the end of FF?
If there is any comfort for FF'ers this morning it could be found reading this site and posts like the one above. FF still has by far the biggest party on the ground in the country and despite the absolutely dire situation that they have led the country into, the retain 22% of the people polled. With the 3% margin of error it is possible that 1 in 4 people still plan on giving their first preference to FF. FG managed to bounce back in a single election cycle from 22% in a general election - not a poll. It is frightening to think what they would need to do to lose the support of, say, a further 15%. Nuke the country? Feed freshly minced puppies to infants?

There is no cause for dancing around singing 'ding-dong, the witch is dead.' Just because Glen Close is in the bath and not moving does not mean she's dead. Be afraid, be very afraid. To cap the movie theme, it is an absolute certainty -They'll be back.



The ratings for FF are at an all time low. Probably they will go a little lower but not too much, this is an opportunity for FF that they may not get again.
Now that FF are not staring at poll results, they can concentrate on running the country.
They should now go for the jugular, and implement the drastic action that is needed.
Go now for the 3 billion cuts that are needed, as at this stage public opinion dosen't matter. For once in your life do what is best for the country
People might even thank you for it.
Not sure whether even that will work. I think Lenihan has been of the mind that he's got bigger things on his plate than worrying about the party for months now. He seemed completely disinterested in the poll results last night as if they were a complete irrelevance. But even if his heart is in the right place, does he, and the civil servants who are with him have the knowhow to make things better?
 
Last edited:

hiding behind a poster

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
48,193
Well all gone up the river now , oh what happened Enda Down 3 points?
I've asked you questions, and you're not answering them - typical lack of common courtesy from you. Where are the "soon to be published polls" which YOU claimed, a couple of weeks ago, would show FF ahead of FG? You claimed such polls were in existence - was that another of your lies?
 

meriwether2

Active member
Joined
Nov 15, 2008
Messages
140
If there is any comfort for FF'ers this morning it could be found reading this site and posts like the one above. FF still has by far the biggest party on the ground in the country and despite the absolutely dire situation that they have led the country into, the retain 22% of the people polled. With the 3% margin of error it is possible that 1 in 4 people still plan on giving their first preference to FF. FG managed to bounce back in a single election cycle from 22% in a general election - not a poll. It is frightening to think what they would need to do to lose the support of, say, a further 15%. Nuke the country? Feed freshly minced puppies to infants?

There is no cause for dancing around singing 'ding-dong, the witch is dead.' Just because Glen Close is in the bath and not moving does not mean she's dead. Be afraid, be very afraid. To cap the movie theme, it is an absolute certainty -They'll be back.
If you lose support quickly, you can regain it quickly.

If FF were on 22% after drifting slowly from 42% over a period of 20 years, then you could say they are in LT trouble.

The fact of the matter is that if FG/Lab made a ********************e of things after 2012, and both of them were caught in bed with a dead sheep (she was alive when she entered the apartment), FF would get an overall majority in 2017.

People get far too excited altogether about things. Short term, this is bad for 40 FF TD's.

Long term, this is a fluctuation.
 

wysiwyg

Well-known member
Joined
Jun 29, 2008
Messages
366
I posted this in the MRBI thread, but perhaps it is more suited here:

I wonder now will Fianna Fail members in the lower ranks start copping on and try to reclaim the Party from the spivs? There's an opportunity presenting itself for the more ambitious young members to carve a niche now. FF are going to take a hammering and are going to be looking eventually for faces out front that represent a break with the Ahern era. A bit of Kruschev-style denunciation by a cadre of members now of those who have run the show in the last decade might be short-term unpopular but might present a long-term opportunity as the Party scrambles around to put on a new face. Not a million miles from what Blair did with Labour, but distancing themselves from gombeenism rather than from socialism. There is certainly going to be upheaval in FF over the next decade, and opportunities abound for those willing to distance themselves now...

Thoughts?
They will get one almighty hammering in June at the locals.. and may then re-build by looking to a newer generation

They need the bloodbath first, for the new blood to emerge
 

Dare to Dream

Member
Joined
Feb 12, 2009
Messages
73
My prediction - GE before 2012
FG/L government
FF will have time to address it's internal issues and take a breather after so long in power.
Economic situation will not change under new government. Return to normal or as normal as it's going to get gradually over the next 2.5 yrs with FF retaking power in subsequent GE after FG/L making an almighty mess of things themselves.
However, Lisbon Treaty, which I thought would go through this time around ......now I am not so sure. The ppl will have the changes they wanted but will they use LT as a weapon against FF if they are still in power in June?!
 


New Threads

Popular Threads

Most Replies

Top