FF rise, Indos fall - Red C/SBP 30th April

Breanainn

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FF 28% (+2)
FG 24% (-)
SF 18% (+1)
Ind 10% (-3)
Lab 6% (-)
Soc Dems 4% (+1)
Solidarity-PBP 4% (-)
Greens 3% (-1)
Ind All 2% (-1)
Renua 1% (+1)
 


TheWolf

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FF 28% (+2)
FG 24% (-)
SF 18% (+1)
Ind 10% (-3)
Lab 6% (-)
Soc Dems 4% (+1)
Solidarity-PBP 4% (-)
Greens 3% (-1)
Ind All 2% (-1)
Renua 1% (+1)
Here we go, another newspaper poll.:D
Another 2 weeks of bu11sh1t until the next one!

The only poll that matters is the one on the day of election.
 

redneck

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Fake news poll?
 

ger12

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Still mad that FF after 2011 would be ahead of FG in the polls by 2017.

Labour at 6% seems way to high ... by about 6% :)
 

Mushroom

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Still mad that FF after 2011 would be ahead of FG in the polls by 2017.
Look in the bright side - just imagine where they'd be if they pulled the plug on Enda over the NMH/SVH problem.
 

Wascurito

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Not one of those "movements" is of significance or outside the margin of error.
 

edwin

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Not one of those "movements" is of significance or outside the margin of error.
And still we get posters who don't undestand polls. Let me explain, again.

Most polls are correct to within 3% at a 95% confidence level. Let's take FF as an example. The previous poll suggested a 95% chance their support was between 23-29%. This poll suggests a 95% chance their support is between 25-31%. Is it possible it hasn't changed? Yes. Should FF be pleased nonetheless? Also yes at the minimum and maximum support levels have both increased.
 

hollandia

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Nothing to see here. Again.

(won't stop the thread being trolled to death, though)
 

ShinnerBot No.32564844524

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And still we get posters who don't undestand polls. Let me explain, again.

Most polls are correct to within 3% at a 95% confidence level. Let's take FF as an example. The previous poll suggested a 95% chance their support was between 23-29%. This poll suggests a 95% chance their support is between 25-31%. Is it possible it hasn't changed? Yes. Should FF be pleased nonetheless? Also yes at the minimum and maximum support levels have both increased.
Apart from FF at 2% change and Indo's at 3% change, all others are at 1% which is statistically insignificant for the entirety of the range, in other words sweet fúck all has changed. It's just another nowhere poll.
 

Mushroom

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For the record, polls that don't show any significant change in voters' intentions are every bit as informative as those that do!
 

Dame_Enda

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No majority govt other than FF-FG possible except one involving FF or FG plus SF.
 

ger12

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When was the poll taken?
 

Congalltee

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And still we get posters who don't undestand polls. Let me explain, again.

Most polls are correct to within 3% at a 95% confidence level. Let's take FF as an example. The previous poll suggested a 95% chance their support was between 23-29%. This poll suggests a 95% chance their support is between 25-31%. Is it possible it hasn't changed? Yes. Should FF be pleased nonetheless? Also yes at the minimum and maximum support levels have both increased.
Can people please read this. Then read it again. (and anyone who think there has been a statistical change needs to read it three times)
 

Disillusioned democrat

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Here we go, another newspaper poll.:D
Another 2 weeks of bu11sh1t until the next one!

The only poll that matters is the one on the day of election.
Except FF would let there be an election until the polls are good - we may be in a twilight zone right now where these polls are very, very important.
 

ShinnerBot No.32564844524

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Wascurito

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And still we get posters who don't undestand polls. Let me explain, again.

Most polls are correct to within 3% at a 95% confidence level. Let's take FF as an example. The previous poll suggested a 95% chance their support was between 23-29%. This poll suggests a 95% chance their support is between 25-31%. Is it possible it hasn't changed? Yes. Should FF be pleased nonetheless? Also yes at the minimum and maximum support levels have both increased.
Lose the attitude, Ed. It depends on which confidence level you pick and bearing that in mind, there can be a large degree of overlap between the lower and upper level normal curves.

These polls come and go. I'm skeptical as to whether people giving an answer of "FF" or "FG" or whatever in one of these polls have really put a lot of thought into their answer. There's such a level of variability between individual polls that looking at the "poll of polls" is the only approach that's remotely useful.
 


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