FF: The squeezed middle?

Marcos the black

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So now FG have a new leader. All indications and sound bites during the election campaign indicate that Leo will position/reaffirm FG as a centre right party.
If rumours are to be believed Gerry Adams will retire from active duty, sorry politics over the summer. This would open up the possibility of SF becoming more electable under a new, younger leader.
FG won't lose many votes to SF. They're ideologically poles apart. But FF could see a lot of its soft vote migrate. They're both left of centre, they both see themselves as being "the republican party" they both target the same voter. Plus Martin is still remembered as being part of the Bertie bunch with no obvious replacement to take over from him (could you see an election campaign as we had in FG happening in FF? Could you name two likely candidates?) So, both FG and SF would have shiny new leaders and an invigorated team... FF seen a bit stale. Could they be squeezed out?
 


ger12

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Leo will look after those who want the best for their children and get up early every morning.

Ireland moving to a socially divided country? Nah, can't see it. No appetite here for it. FF will enjoy this ...
 

Northsideman

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Leo will look after those who want the best for their children and get up early every morning.

Ireland moving to a socially divided country? Nah, can't see it. No appetite here for it. FF will enjoy this ...
Correct, Ireland always looks for the middle ground, can't see that changing much.
 

ger12

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"The frontrunner to be the next taoiseach has held a number of fundraising events in recent months, including one on Tuesday night at an exclusive private members' club in Dublin city centre. The event was hosted by Thomas Lynch who is believed to have made a small fortune through his involvement in the pharma sector."

Leo has a nice warm tent.

Businessman hosts 'secret supper' fundraiser for Varadkar - Independent.ie

What direction is FG going in again?
 

devoutcapitalist

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Leo won't move FG to the right, he's a big government statist at heart.

The man increased welfare payments in the last budget.
 

ger12

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wombat

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FF were already fighting on 2 fronts, the last election they were able to do so, attacking FG in country areas and on the defence against SF in city areas where SF were concentrating on Labour. Nobody knows how the floating voters will respond to Varadkar, he could turn them off but more likely he'll set the terms of the debate and FF will have to respond.
 

Calvin J. Hamilton

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Mickey Martin should have pulled the plug during Enda's reign over Water charges and Gardai corruption, he sat on the fence, FF have missed the bus
 

Marcos the black

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Leo will look after those who want the best for their children and get up early every morning.

Ireland moving to a socially divided country? Nah, can't see it. No appetite here for it. FF will enjoy this ...
Not so sure. Enda, while I liked him, wasn't popular. Can't see FG being less popular under Leo. Hard to see SF being less popular under a new leader. SF aren't going to get many votes from FG. Different voter base. Where are they going to come from?
 

Northsideman

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Man or Mouse

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Mickey Martin should have pulled the plug during Enda's reign over Water charges and Gardai corruption, he sat on the fence, FF have missed the bus
He didn't see advantage to FF in so doing, therefore, it doesn't get done. FF has not yet found a fence it wouldn't sit on until it feels the direction the majority is taking. Everything is done with expediency in mind, nothing for reasons of conviction.
 

Man or Mouse

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Not so sure. Enda, while I liked him, wasn't popular. Can't see FG being less popular under Leo. Hard to see SF being less popular under a new leader. SF aren't going to get many votes from FG. Different voter base. Where are they going to come from?
I think you can broaden your brush strokes there. Just think of the average person in Ireland who is madder than hell and won't take it any more following on from the Seánie debacle. They have a chat about it with spouses or whoever and decide that if this is to change, they are going to have to vote differently in the future. Then, they look at the options, or, even more decisive, have a look at what the Shinners on here are posting.

Naw. Think we'll stick with what we have.
 

wombat

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The problem that all parties will have with Varadkar is that he's unpredictable. Coveney would have been a conventional, competant Taoiseach and the next election would be fought on predictable lines. Varadkar is different, he may set the agenda and other parties will have to respond.
 

redneck

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Both FG and FF are controlled and financed by large Irish business. The IBEC/Independent News media lobby. Because of this dual system, one of them must eventually capitulate. I would guess that FF under M.Martin will be under more pressure in the future. John McGuinness is the leader in waiting imo.
If I were Fianna Fail, I would be looking at doing a deal with Sinn Féin. FF on 22% and S.F on 18% gives nearly 40% and a majority at the next election.
But would FF under Martin do this? I don't think so- so this means FF will be short again after the next election.
 

Voluntary

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The problem that all parties will have with Varadkar is that he's unpredictable. Coveney would have been a conventional, competant Taoiseach and the next election would be fought on predictable lines. Varadkar is different, he may set the agenda and other parties will have to respond.
“Here's to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They're not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. About the only thing you can't do is ignore them. Because they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.”
― Rob Siltanen
 

Voluntary

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Both FG and FF are controlled and financed by large Irish business. The IBEC/Independent News media lobby. Because of this dual system, one of them must eventually capitulate. I would guess that FF under M.Martin will be under more pressure in the future. John McGuinness is the leader in waiting imo.
If I were Fianna Fail, I would be looking at doing a deal with Sinn Féin. FF on 22% and S.F on 18% gives nearly 40% and a majority at the next election.
But would FF under Martin do this? I don't think so- so this means FF will be short again after the next election.
If FG can invest in jobs and education then there should not be many left to vote SF?
 


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