FF Transfers in the next Election

locke

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Joined
May 2, 2007
Messages
3,203
If the most recent opinion polls are anything to go by, FF could face haveing no seat in anywhere between 15 and 30 constituencies.

This means that far more than previously FF transfers will come into play when electing subsequent candidates.

So I set myself the task of finding where they went in the previous election. While I appreciate that the next election will be very different, it does offer some insight.

Anyway, the summary of the results

- Fine Gael did much worse in Dublin than elsewhere in the country. This is not good news for them as many of the seats with no FF TD will be in Dublin.
- Labour did much better in Dublin and regional urban centres that the rest of the country. This is good news as these are likely to be among the places where FF win no seats.
- Sinn Fein did a lot better in the border counties than nationally, reflecting their status as the third party of choice there. This is not good news as FF are likely to retain a seat in each of the border counties (except maybe Louth)
- The Greens did a lot better in Dublin than nationally. This could be good news if they are to save seats.

Anyway, the figures

For the record, Others includes the PDs

Nationwide
Fine Gael 22.5%
Labour 16.7%
Sinn Fein 8.1%
Greens 5.6%
Others 18.4%
Independents 12.2%
Non-transferable 19.0%

Rural
Fine Gael 26.6%
Labour 8.0%
Sinn Fein 7.9%
Greens 6.4%
Others 4.3%
Independents 26.4%
Non-transferable 24.3%

Border
Fine Gael 33.8%
Labour 13.8%
Sinn Fein 40.8%
Greens 4.4%
Others 0%
Independents 2.1%
Non-transferable 17.5%


Regional Urban
Fine Gael 25.8%
Labour 24.4%
Sinn Fein 5.4%
Greens 2.9%
Others 22.0%
Independents 3.2%
Non-transferable 16.0%

Dublin
Fine Gael 14.5%
Labour 22.3%
Sinn Fein 2.9%
Greens 10.6%
Others 31.3%
Independents 7.9%
Non-transferable 18.1%

Commuter Belt
Fine Gael 38.0%
Labour 16.4%
Sinn Fein 12.7%
Greens 8.6%
Others 8.7%
Independents 15.6%
Non-transferable 0%

Some notes on the methodology...

What was included was the transfers of FF candidates who exceeded the quota on the first count and FF candidates who were eliminated. Because of the way surpluses are distributed for candidates who exceed the quota on the first count, these votes would be more a reflection of the transfers of the candidate eliminated/elected immediately beforehand than where FF 2nd preferences were going

Also, I regard the sample for the Commuter Belt as unacceptably small, so the results aren't so reflective of where transfers might go.
 
Last edited:


Chrisco

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Joined
Jan 14, 2008
Messages
3,822
Great work locke.

FWIW, I had a quick squiz at the DonSW transfers, and IMFF picked up fairly consistently ca. 10% of transfers on each count, which I guess are probably geographical ones. I can't see it being any different in the GE.

Dotski might want to factor these into his spreadsheet. ;)
 


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