FF transfers to decide who will be Taoiseach?

gijoe

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Jul 26, 2010
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We are going to see a scenario that we have not had to consider before in the next election - where will FF transfers go? We have very little evidence from previous elections as there nearly always was an FFer in the field to soak up spare transfers and surpluses. But now we are going to have to ask whether the transfers will benefit FG or Labour as they will be fighting it out for the last seat in many constituencies with the victor possibly claiming the prize of largest party and the office of Taoiseach.

On a superficial analysis of what evidence there is on my part the first beneficiary of FF transfers seems to be the candidate(s) most local to the eliminated FFer and then it seems to be FG ahead of Labour by some margin - probably reflecting the conservative nature of much of the FF vote. So from a starting point of where we stand today it looks as if FG has most to gain, which will probably see them taking a number of final seats in constituencies ahead of Labour.

Anyone want to contradict?
 


midlander12

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Jul 29, 2008
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I made this point in an earlier post on the Red C thread. You'd have to look up the last couple of elections in detail - it would of course vary from constituency to constituency. Many of them will be non-transferable as FF voters tend to rather more tribal. My suspicion is that in rural areas FG will pick up the most of what's left, and in urban areas Labour. There is a definite vote that 'swings' erratically between FF and Lab from poll to poll. In areas with a strong republican thing SF would pick up a few too. It will be the most unpredictable aspect of the next election, and I think it will remain unpredictable until the last count in each constituency.
 

LeDroit

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Mar 11, 2010
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There's no way FG will benefit more from FF transfers. The core FF vote, and let's face it that's all that's left, are die hard FF. Die hard FF hate FG for historical and hysterical reasons so FG won't be getting their transfers. Another reason can be seen in the trends in the polls. Any soft FF vote has gone to Labour.
 


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