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FG in Cork SW next election ?


cricket

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Their two current TD's there ( O'keeffe and Sheehan ) are , shall we say , mature. Will either run next time , or is there a shortage of young successors on the horizon ?
 

Red_93

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Their two current TD's there ( O'keeffe and Sheehan ) are , shall we say , mature. Will either run next time , or is there a shortage of young successors on the horizon ?
Hopefully, then Michael McCarthy an take one of the seats for labour. If they are retiring I predict 1 FG, 1 FF and 1 LP.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Highly unlikely both will retire at the one election, but PJ Sheehan's son was elected in Bantry last year, so he'd have a good chance if the dad retires. Such is the way of politics in CSW.
 

wombat

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PJ Sheehan's son was elected in Bantry last year, so he'd have a good chance if the dad retires. Such is the way of politics in CSW.
I was working in Bantry a few years ago. It was after the 2002 election but I discovered in conversation that many of the guys at work were unaware that Paddy Sheahan was no longer a TD:lol:
 

Western Person

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Hopefully, then Michael McCarthy an take one of the seats for labour. If they are retiring I predict 1 FG, 1 FF and 1 LP.
Labour poster in predicting a Labour victory shocker.

Hard to imagine Sheehan going on again, he must be 75 or thereabouts. I'd be surprised if FG lost that seat however.
 

cricket

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Highly unlikely both will retire at the one election, but PJ Sheehan's son was elected in Bantry last year, so he'd have a good chance if the dad retires. Such is the way of politics in CSW.

Is he as bad as the father , who reminds me of JHR without the cap ?
O'Keeffe is known as the black babies man around Skib from his days as junior minister for the third world .
 

dotski_w_

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Labour poster in predicting a Labour victory shocker.

Hard to imagine Sheehan going on again, he must be 75 or thereabouts. I'd be surprised if FG lost that seat however.
well, Labour were 0.4% below their national vote here last time, so depending on whether you believe MRBI or RedC they should either be on 23.6% or, er, 23.6% :) Greens were 6.7% and SF on 5.1%

FG were on 36% last time out so should be low-to-mid 40s with a uniform swing, but if LP are anywhere near 19-20% nationally they should be competitive here, particularly if 1 or more of the outgoing TDs step down.
 

Sue Donim

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well, Labour were 0.4% below their national vote here last time, so depending on whether you believe MRBI or RedC they should either be on 23.6% or, er, 23.6% :) Greens were 6.7% and SF on 5.1%

FG were on 36% last time out so should be low-to-mid 40s with a uniform swing, but if LP are anywhere near 19-20% nationally they should be competitive here, particularly if 1 or more of the outgoing TDs step down.
More red wet dreams - the Labouring Party lives in a dream world, and the voters know it.
 

Red_93

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More red wet dreams - the Labouring Party lives in a dream world, and the voters know it.
Right so where are labour going to get the 40+ seats current polls have them at. FYI csw was a lp stronghold for years, so with a swing and a good candidate (which they have) they could well take a seat.Honestly this assumption that just cos a constituency is rural lp cannot get a seat is just silly!
 

Sue Donim

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Right so where are labour going to get the 40+ seats current polls have them at. FYI csw was a lp stronghold for years, so with a swing and a good candidate (which they have) they could well take a seat.Honestly this assumption that just cos a constituency is rural lp cannot get a seat is just silly!
You must have a rural red chip on our shoulder - because I never referred to the rural aspect of CSW.
 

hiding behind a poster

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well, Labour were 0.4% below their national vote here last time, so depending on whether you believe MRBI or RedC they should either be on 23.6% or, er, 23.6% :) Greens were 6.7% and SF on 5.1%

FG were on 36% last time out so should be low-to-mid 40s with a uniform swing, but if LP are anywhere near 19-20% nationally they should be competitive here, particularly if 1 or more of the outgoing TDs step down.
Without wishing to get into the same circular argument again, you're assuming a uniform swing, which is unlikely, and you're assuming that labour gets its 24% nationally on election day, which is also unlikely. Re the 24%, the locals showed that there is, at the very least, an issue with either turnout or oversampling in terms of the Labour vote, whereas with the uniform swing I suspect we may see a variation on UK-style tactical voting next time, where voters gravitate towards the strongest anti-FF party in each constituency. In Dublin, that would benefit Labour, in places like Cork SW it would benefit FG.

(And before you dissect that to the nth degree, its really just a hunch I have about tactical voting - its not something I have a lot of evidence for.)
 

hiding behind a poster

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Right so where are labour going to get the 40+ seats current polls have them at. FYI csw was a lp stronghold for years, so with a swing and a good candidate (which they have) they could well take a seat.
The last time Labour won a seat in Cork South-West was 1977, though. They didn't even run a candidate there a couple of times in the 1980s, and even in the Spring Tide only got 11% of the vote.
 

Red_93

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You must have a rural red chip on our shoulder - because I never referred to the rural aspect of CSW.
1 I didnt know we shared a shoulder.
2 Maybe you didnt make the point but others often do. Ive heard people say sf are stronger than lp in rural areas. Such crap.
3 You havent answered my question.
 

barrym

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I'd tend to agree with the sentiment that FG would benefit from any anti-FF in CSW. As a local 'floating' voter (I don't mind admitting I voted Green last time, but have since left the Greens....) I would hope that the Sheehan dynasty would not benefit, but I'm not holding my breath. As for O'K, he should also be retiring, but I assume he hopes for a job in a future admin., so he'll hang in there.

Another option is PJ's daughter....
 

KingKane

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Right so where are labour going to get the 40+ seats current polls have them at. FYI csw was a lp stronghold for years, so with a swing and a good candidate (which they have) they could well take a seat.Honestly this assumption that just cos a constituency is rural lp cannot get a seat is just silly!
The polls do not have Labour on 40+ seats. The polls have Labour on a % of the national vote nothing more, local factors, name recognition, incumbency all will come into play in an actual voting situation. Just as it did last year when Labour did much worse than its polling would have provided for.

It is not impossible, though unlikely, that were the bad blood between the Donovan and O'Sullivan camps to be repeated for FF to throw away their seat entirely here especially if a FF indo spoiler were to run.
 

Red_93

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The last time Labour won a seat in Cork South-West was 1977, though. They didn't even run a candidate there a couple of times in the 1980s, and even in the Spring Tide only got 11% of the vote.
Oh, sorry I thought they had 1 in 92, in which case McCarthy's chances are much lower than I originally thought, he's still a strong candidate though.
 

Red_93

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The polls do not have Labour on 40+ seats. The polls have Labour on a % of the national vote nothing more, local factors, name recognition, incumbency all will come into play in an actual voting situation. Just as it did last year when Labour did much worse than its polling would have provided for.
Yes, that's a fair point, but there are only 2 constituencies in the country where labour don't have a county councillor - Mayo and Cavan-Monaghan, in Mayo there is Gerry Cowely, so there are candidates in every constituency who are at least some way credible barring Cavan-Monaghan. And I feel that local factors, while still being a big decider, will play less of a part this time, people who lost jobs or suffered paycuts won't say "ah he cut my pay and stole my childrens allowance but he's a nice fella and he fixed the pothole so I'll vote for him anyway".
 

wombat

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people who lost jobs or suffered paycuts won't say "ah he cut my pay and stole my childrens allowance but he's a nice fella and he fixed the pothole so I'll vote for him anyway".
I know you're young, so you can only go with your experience but for most of the 20th century, people exported their unemployed children and voted to have their potholes fixed.;)
 
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