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FG must aim to win at least 75 seats at the next GE.


Marlowe

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Dec 20, 2008
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41
This might not be the impossible task that some might consider it to be.

I believe the party would need to win about 39% of the vote to achieve this.

In Nov 1982 FG Won 70 seats with with the same percentage vote as this - but this was against a FF with a rock solid 44%.

39% would allow FG to win more seats this time because FF will be far weaker at the next GE. With a lot of FF seats up for grabs, FG will be the main beneficeries in constituencies where Labour are not well organised.

At the moment FG are on 33% according to the latest Red C poll.They have been as high as 35% recently and appear to be on an upward trend at the moment.

So 39%, while difficult, is by no means impossible.


The question is - how might this come about?

Well lets consider the scenario that's likely to unfold over the next few months.

FF are facing substantial losses at the upcoming elections. This will contribute to their downward momentum.

The public will have even less faith in their ability to get us out of this very difficult situation.

The next budget will be the final straw; when the govt are forced to reveal the true extent of the measures needed to keep us afloat the patience of the electorate will finally snap.I believe an election is inevitable at that stage, and it's one that FF can't win.


So what must FG do.It's not enough for FF to lose the election:FG must ensure they actually win it.

Well the next 6 months offers a golden opportunity.

All the publicity surrounding the June elections will heighten political awareness among the general public.

FG must capitalise on this: they must work very hard over the succeeding months to sell their policies to the public.

There must be no long summer break for FG while the Dail is on holidays.

They party has been developing a lot of good policy initiatives over the last while, such as the new health policy.

They must continue to do this, and most importantly, they must be constantly on the airwaves to sell those policies.

They must become associated in the public mind as the government in waiting.

Momentum is crucial here: once you get it, it tends to become self-fulfilling.

They must sell a positive message of hope to the people.


75 seats would leave FG in a very strong position, and would strengthen their hand when forming a government.

Let there be no doubt that a very strong government indeed will be needed.


The message must be sold that voting for independents or ex FF men is no good when we need a very strong government.There are some good genuine independents running in the locals, but in the GE the public must be fully convinced of the necessity to vote for a strong government.


As far as the constituences are concerned there must be no selfishness.
They must go for the maximum number of seats, and aim for ones that might have been considered out of the question up to now.Quota sitters are no good; the candidates must be brave, and willing to take the risk.

The prize is there to be won.

FG must go for it.
 
Last edited:

Supermanpolitician

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May 8, 2007
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1,033
Would agree. Good vote management could get us a few extras.

I can see a few where it is hard not to see FG gain a seat, Dub Central and Dun Laoghaire spring to mind. 75 is possible. If they aim for more they will get more.

If they get 39% of the vote it will be a phenominal result.

But we can do it.
 

SPN

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Feb 2, 2004
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16,890
I'd agree with all of that.

Just three minor quibbles.

1) The Health Policy is excellent, except for the proposal to use multiple for-profit Health Insurers. There won't be any for-profit health insurers in two years time. Fine Gael should know this, and if they don't they aren't paying enough attention to global fionancial markets (which is what their main complaint about FF). We need the VHI to be restructured so that it is more transparent and accountable, and then force the for-profits to play on a level playing field - no more subsidies from VHI members.

2) The Fine Gael proposal to outlaw dino diesel in 2015 needs to be withdrawn, and whoever thought it up needs to be publicly denounced. The person is clueless in the extreme.

3) The rest of the Fine Gael proposal needs to be reworded so that it supports private enterprise. The way it is currently worded implies that they are going to turn DCENR into a Semi-State that will crowd private enterprise out of the game.


Fine Gael need to start targetting individual FF TDs and start zeroing in on their respective voter bases right now. Fianna Fáil need to be crushed, and the votes need to be ringfenced so that Labour can't get a bounce from them. Fine Gael need to be able to form a Government without Labour if we are going to get through this crisis.

We do not need, and our children cannot afford, a reprise of the 1980s.

Once was enough!
 

Marlowe

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Dec 20, 2008
Messages
41
I'd agree with all of that.

Just three minor quibbles.

1) The Health Policy is excellent, except for the proposal to use multiple for-profit Health Insurers. There won't be any for-profit health insurers in two years time. Fine Gael should know this, and if they don't they aren't paying enough attention to global fionancial markets (which is what their main complaint about FF). We need the VHI to be restructured so that it is more transparent and accountable, and then force the for-profits to play on a level playing field - no more subsidies from VHI members.

2) The Fine Gael proposal to outlaw dino diesel in 2015 needs to be withdrawn, and whoever thought it up needs to be publicly denounced. The person is clueless in the extreme.

3) The rest of the Fine Gael proposal needs to be reworded so that it supports private enterprise. The way it is currently worded implies that they are going to turn DCENR into a Semi-State that will crowd private enterprise out of the game.


Fine Gael need to start targetting individual FF TDs and start zeroing in on their respective voter bases right now. Fianna Fáil need to be crushed, and the votes need to be ringfenced so that Labour can't get a bounce from them. Fine Gael need to be able to form a Government without Labour if we are going to get through this crisis.

We do not need, and our children cannot afford, a reprise of the 1980s.

Once was enough!
I'd like to say thanks for a positive and constructive contribution,SPN.
 

FutureTaoiseach

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I'd be more open to a FG govt that didn't include Labour, and 75 seats might do the trick. But I don't want my vote to be Labour's ticket to govt.
 

Icemancometh

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May 24, 2007
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335
I'd be more open to a FG govt that didn't include Labour, and 75 seats might do the trick. But I don't want my vote to be Labour's ticket to govt.
The real problem with that is on current poll numbers, what sort of Government can be formed without Labour?
 

SPN

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The real problem with that is on current poll numbers, what sort of Government can be formed without Labour?
That is the challenge FG need to face up to.

Two years ago the poll numbers were radically different - even one year ago they were different.

Either FG go baldheaded for 75-78 seats, or they allow Labour into the void left by the collapse of FF. They only get one shot at this.

Replacing Enda with Máiréad McGuinness would be a huge help too.
 

Question R24U

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Oct 5, 2008
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Here's how:
1. Keep enda.
2. Keep enda away from tv except set pieces unless bruton is also there.
3. Have selection conventions and interviews immediately after locals.
4. Aggressively target the seats in all43 constituencies.
5. Teach people to vote abff in the locals and euros and byelections.
6. Keep repeating the following phrase as a mantra 'only a vote for fg guarantees you can get ff out'
7. Make very clear that fg is not just the best choice but only choice for the 1.7 existing or former private sector workers.
8. Bring the government down by any lawful means necessary eg deal with lowry, greens, grealish or any backbencher.
9.keep spokespersons very tight.
10. ..have better luck.
 

SPN

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Here's how:
4. Aggressively target the seats in all43 constituencies.

8. Bring the government down by any lawful means necessary eg deal with lowry, greens, grealish or any backbencher.
Forget about "all 43 Constituencies" and target each FF TD, parish by parish. Family by family. This calls for ground work at parish level - the very thing that Fianna Fáil have always been so expert at.


There is no rush in bringing down the Government. The more time FF spend in Government the deeper the hole they will dig for themselves, and the bigger the potential upside for FG to exploit for the long term. Every day that FG spends out of Government while we are on the downward trajectory is a day less of hardship they will bring on themselves.

FG want to be coming into Government in about 12 months time - when we have reached rock bottom, and the only way is up. That is 12 months of destroying the FF TDs on the ground, and 12 months of constantly reminding people about the pattern of FF Governments destroying the economy.


Then we'll have a future worth looking forward to (until January 2015 that is - unless you have shares in a Rickshaw distributorship)
 

Question R24U

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one term at a time, sweet jesus.

Any fine gaeler who agrees with the stupid line that fg should not be in a rush to get ff out should be expelled. The mission, should they choose to accept it, is to get ff out and provide good government urgently. Anything else is ff-lite instead of ff-sh1te. Not good enough.
 

Right is right

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Oct 4, 2008
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There are a couple of things that FG need to ensure that they do over the next 6 months..

1 - Ensure that they get their PR people to get across the concept of a Taoiseach being "a leader of a team of highly qualified people" rather than "a polished performer with some individual skills"...A unique challenge in Ireland whereby no-one seems to understand this concept for some reason...

2 - Get it across that Richard Bruton is the only one with the knowledge to be a successful Minister for Finance and making him leader of FG is counter productive

3 - Highlight that everyone apart from FG is a potential FF ally after the election and how you can't trust them not to vote with FF so ensure you vote FG 1,2,3 and then stop.

4 - Pick 4/5 topics that they are experts on and each spokesperson can comfortably beat his FF/Labour/Green/ opponents in any debate - these should be -
1 - Finance/Economy and Bruton can do this
2 - Health and O'Reilly should be easily capable of this
3 - Enterprise - pick the best person for this role
4 - Education - pick who can do this the best
5 - Social Welfare - Leo can take this but ensure he comes across well.
 

DS-09

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May 1, 2009
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Don't rely too much on polls, you just might be suprised to see Fianna Fail in power for another 10 years
 

turdsl

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Some excellent posts here and very good advice,the new health plan has great prospects,I was never a great fan of Kenny but he deserves full backing at the moment
as he says himself as a team builder.Mairead McGuinness did very bad at the last election
and is a long way behind Kenny in experience, I also believe that the general election will come too soon for F.G., there will not be enough damage done to F.F.
 

eoinod

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Mar 21, 2008
Messages
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Why does everyone question Kenny's leadership when a FG thread is brought up?

He has resurrected the party from the doldrums of 2002. He has more integrity than FF, SF Labour and the Greens combined. He is by far and away the best leader in Ireland at the moment. There is no one I would rather see as Taoiseach, leading our nation, than Enda Kenny himself.

I believe that is has been mentioned before but it is integral that Richard Bruton is pushed as the only option for minister of Finance. If Labour were to once again be gifted the Finance Ministry the government will likely not be viable. Labour need to be kept out of positions of major power or they will bring down an otherwise brilliant government through their populist champagne socialist tripe.

Voting FG is the only assured way to be rid of FF. Labour would be just as happy to go in with FF if the public would let them away with it. FG and especially Enda Kenny really need to push this point home.
 

an asal

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Reference all above posts: How would ye advise the public to fill out their ballot paper in a GE?.
 

wombat

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Why does everyone question Kenny's leadership when a FG thread is brought up?
.
At this stage FF have given up hope of defending the govt., their only hope is to attack Kenny - if you throw enough muck some will stick.
 

eoinod

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Reference all above posts: How would ye advise the public to fill out their ballot paper in a GE?.
1. FG
2. FG
3. FG

If you want FF out that is.

If you are not that pushed you could give Labour a preference too...
 

Rich OC

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one term at a time, sweet jesus.

Any fine gaeler who agrees with the stupid line that fg should not be in a rush to get ff out should be expelled. The mission, should they choose to accept it, is to get ff out and provide good government urgently. Anything else is ff-lite instead of ff-sh1te. Not good enough.
No - the aim is now much higher than just getting into power. It must be the destruction of FF. If FG take power and let FF regroup on the opposition benches then it will be unforgivable. If FG want a vote from me they had better do a little more than work toward scraping together a 65-23 with Labour.

Aim high or get off the pitch. If FG waste this opportunity then they are a pointless party.
 
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Question R24U

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1. FG
2. FG
3. FG

If you want FF out that is.

If you are not that pushed you could give Labour a preference too...
Wrong:
1 FG
2 FG
3 labour (unless you live in dublin south in which case this is 3. FG)
4 sf
5 green
6 libertas
7 christian solidarty (but be careful how you do the 7)
8 immigration control party (while holding your nose)
9 abff ind
10 ind
 

Question R24U

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Messages
269
No - the aim is now much higher than just getting into power. It must be the destruction of FF. If FG take power and let FF regroup on the opposition benches then it will be unforgivable. If FG want a vote from me they had better do a little more than work toward scraping together a 65-23 with Labour.

Aim high or get off the pitch. If FG waste this opportunity then they are a pointless party.
I suspect you are the type for whom negativity comes naturally - FG should ignore you and your ilk. Not being ff does not constitute an alternative. Fg should beat ff in the next election. Then judged on what they do in government they do what they have have never done before - win a second term. But the next general election campaign begins on the 6th june.
 
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