FG poll in Dublin South East confirms Lab poll on the ground - 2 Lab 1 FG & 1 FF

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Yesterday i wrote up a post based on dotski's blogpost about Labour's polling in Dublin South East, the amount of attention it's gotten on the site (and off the site) isn't unusual for Dublin South East discussions on Politics.ie.

This morning, I was sent by two people separately the results of a recent Fine Gael poll from Dublin South East. I was given figures too. The FGers I spoke to both told me that this poll shows the same people getting elected as a poll FG did four weeks ago, and is similar to the Labour poll - in that it shows the same people getting elected. Quinn is expected to top the poll, which is a far cry from previous elections - when party leader he was the last elected in the constituency in 2002.

The FG polls done last week and a month ago show Quinn topping the poll, bringing in his running-mate Humphreys on strong transfers, with Lucinda Creighton (FG) and Chris Andrews (FF) taking the other two seats.

Code:
Chris Andrews      Fianna Fail     18%
Lucinda Creighton  Fine Gael       19%
John Gormley       Green            8%
Kevin Humphreys    Labour          10%
Eoghan Murphy      Fine Gael        4%
Ruairi Quinn       Labour          31%
I've spoken to someone in FF and they have said a similar poll done by them about 7 weeks ago show the same candidates getting elected.

Chewing the cud on where transfers go, it seems that Labour transfers are significantly higher to Creighton than Murphy. The reason for this, it has been suggested by those who provided the numbers, is that Labour tranfers to FG are going to the anti-Kenny candidate (Creighton) and not the pro-Kenny one (Murphy).

I'll leave that up to you folks to qualify and discuss.
 


Reality bites

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Chewing the cud on where transfers go, it seems that Labour transfers are significantly higher to Creighton than Murphy. The reason for this, it has been suggested by those who provided the numbers, is that Labour tranfers to FG are going to the anti-Kenny candidate (Creighton) and not the pro-Kenny one (Murphy).

I'll leave that up to you folks to qualify and discuss.
I would assume its more to do with Lucinda being more established than Eoghan Murphy and that in opinion polls of constituencies before a GE is called sitting TDs benefit more.

I also understand that the Labour poll showed a much more even divide of the FG vote split between the two candidates
 

borntorum

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FF would have to be happy to retain its seat in DSE, probably the most volatile and media-reliant constituency in the country.

It is ironic, as others noted on the related Labour thread, that the party of the workers appears to be set to become the largest party in Dublins 2 & 4.
 

Simbo67

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I would agree, the average punter may know that Lucinda was agin Kenny but they probably won't know that Murphy was pro-Kenny. Its looks more like the average punter on the ground never heard of Murphy.
 

flavirostris

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I can't believe Gormley is on 8%, thought he would be much lower
 

borntorum

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I would agree, the average punter may know that Lucinda was agin Kenny but they probably won't know that Murphy was pro-Kenny. Its looks more like the average punter on the ground never heard of Murphy.
But why would yer average Lab voter transfer to the right-wing Creighton?

It's probably the case that many of the prospective Lab voters would have favoured FG during the Fitzgerald so-called 'social democratic' days. I'd say if FG had a leader more pleasing to the Dublin middle classes a lot of the DSE Lab vote could shift back to the other main opposition party
 

Future

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Not too much of a change in the Andrews vote from the laste election on those numbers.

Still think if FG had a different 2nd candidate to Murphy that a 2nd seat is just about achievable.
 

Simbo67

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But why would yer average Lab voter transfer to the right-wing Creighton?

It's probably the case that many of the prospective Lab voters would have favoured FG during the Fitzgerald so-called 'social democratic' days. I'd say if FG had a leader more pleasing to the Dublin middle classes a lot of the DSE Lab vote could shift back to the other main opposition party
The ABFF trumps the right wing/left wing split. She's a high profile ABFFer. If I were in Donegal I would be giving Doherty a number two after my FG vote.
I think the real issue is that Murphy hasn't made enough inroads so he's getting swamped by the big name.
 

Asparagus

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I can't believe Gormley is on 8%, thought he would be much lower
Lucinda Creighton and Chris Andrews are on the ballot sheet.

So its not the best choice if you are not a Ruairi Quinn fan
 

hiding behind a poster

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I would assume its more to do with Lucinda being more established than Eoghan Murphy and that in opinion polls of constituencies before a GE is called sitting TDs benefit more.
Exactly. I'd be astonished if many voters in DSE knew whether Murphy was pro or anti-Kenny.
 

RahenyFG

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Still think if FG had a different 2nd candidate to Murphy that a 2nd seat is just about achievable.
Indeed it would be, Murphy hasn't established himself long enough in politics. He was only elected to Dublin City Council last year aged 26. Bertie Ahern is someone who strikes me as having no prior political experience or longevity yet got elected aged 25 to the dail in 1977 at his first try. I don't think Murphy can't pull off the 'spoofer' image as well as Bertie tho
 

Chrisco

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Interesting that the Fianna Fail vote is holding up okay in this district. Chris 'Merge FF and FG' Andrews close enough to Creighton of Fine Gael. Glad to see Gormley not getting re-elected, he deserves it!
Down by 40% is not what I would consider 'holding up ok'...
 

sandar

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But why would yer average Lab voter transfer to the right-wing Creighton?

It's probably the case that many of the prospective Lab voters would have favoured FG during the Fitzgerald so-called 'social democratic' days. I'd say if FG had a leader more pleasing to the Dublin middle classes a lot of the DSE Lab vote could shift back to the other main opposition party
would it not be that a lot of labour voters are women, and will transfer to the next woman with a chance of winning?
 

borntorum

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Will there be any other candidates appearing that might upset the apple tart, so to speak? DSE is the sort of place where you could envisage some ego driven media personality to have a go, and of course the ghost of McDowell still hovers over the constituency.
 

locke

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Are we certain now that FF are only running one?

If so, the destination of the seats seems cut and dried.

There is a minor challenge for Labour to correctly manage their vote, but they have so much to work with that it shouldn't be an issue.

On a sidenote, Quinn, Creighton, Andrews, Humphreys is a very lightweight line up for Dublin SE - the constituency that likes to select ministers. Obviously, Quinn is a big name, but it's not that long since Quinn, Gormley and McDowell were all in place there. Further back, we had Garret Fitzgerald, Noel Browne and Richie Ryan.

I can't believe Gormley is on 8%, thought he would be much lower
I have a theory that although the Greens are losing a lot of their voters from the last election that they may be gaining some PD ones. If that is the case, there may be some hope for them in Dublin South and Dublin Mid-West.
 

RahenyFG

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Down by 40% is not what I would consider 'holding up ok'...
one poster said earlier on this thread that the Fianna Fail vote in this area was largely similar to 2007, maybe Im wrong........
 

Future

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Indeed it would be, Murphy hasn't established himself long enough in politics. He was only elected to Dublin City Council last year aged 26. Bertie Ahern is someone who strikes me as having no prior political experience or longevity yet got elected aged 25 to the dail in 1977 at his first try. I don't think Murphy can't pull off the 'spoofer' image as well as Bertie tho
Who else could they run though?

A celebrity candidate?
 

borntorum

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would it not be that a lot of labour voters are women, and will transfer to the next woman with a chance of winning?
Firstly, why would a lot of Lab voters more so than any other party supporters be women? And even if so, why would that encourage them to vote for Creighton.

I think most women decide how to vote based on issues other than whether they share the same type of genitals with a candidate
 

Edo

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hmmm - was up in the big smoke and out on my old stomping ground of DSE yesterday - heard exactly the same thing from FG activists and members.

A few things:

DSE is very favourable Labour party territory - thousands of public and civil servants and others sucking from the state tit - labour are saying all the right things in that regard - no surprise if you look at the 2009 locals - Lab are a shoo-in for 2.

Murphy needs to raise his profile big time - and stick his neck on the line and say something contraversial - worked for lucy.

The kenny factor - if this is replicated around Dublin and the commuter belt - FG's best hope is to retain what they have and hope not to lose any - the Kenny factor is also an issue in DNW, DSW, DSC and others from what I have heard.

The resilence of the FF vote is not to be underestimated - given FF's near total destruction in the DSE locals last year - Andrews is polling very high - given the volatility of DSE and was one of the const where I thought FF could possibly be FF free after the next election - if points to FF retaining 50-60+ seats in spite of everything - the Greens will pick up the tab.
 


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