FG Selection in Laois/Offaly

LgCastell

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So Enright has been out of the next GE for ages and I think that is a shame she could have been a good junior minister and prob build up to a minister over time so hopefully she'll be back but what is FG going to do in Laois Offaly

Its an FF strong hold with it being Cowen's home town but some see FF struggling to hold three from 5. i'd admit if there was a place to do this it'd be here but who will FG but up to challenge them

Charlie Flanagan will now be there front runner - who is Portlaoise based

I would saw they'll be looking for an Offaly candidate to replace Enright and then one more i cant imagine them running four ... possible if they had two incumbent tds but unlikely now

Options:

Tommy McKeigue or Molly Buckley of Tullamore
Liam Quinn of Edenderry
James Daly or John Morran of Luggacurran
Michael Curran or John Lawlor of Borris in Ossory

Theres just a list looking over the LE results from Laois and Offally

Any thoughts? When is the convention?
 


Cationic

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Off the top of my head, I'd go with Molly Buckley and Liam Quinn.
The soundings coming from the Rhode-Edenderry area is that Quinn is gearing up for a run but how could anybody believe that Molly Buckley is capable of winning or even performing strongly for a seat?
 

Baron von Biffo

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So Enright has been out of the next GE for ages and I think that is a shame she could have been a good junior minister and prob build up to a minister over time so hopefully she'll be back but what is FG going to do in Laois Offaly

Its an FF strong hold with it being Cowen's home town but some see FF struggling to hold three from 5. i'd admit if there was a place to do this it'd be here but who will FG but up to challenge them

Charlie Flanagan will now be there front runner - who is Portlaoise based

I would saw they'll be looking for an Offaly candidate to replace Enright and then one more i cant imagine them running four ... possible if they had two incumbent tds but unlikely now

Options:

Tommy McKeigue or Molly Buckley of Tullamore
Liam Quinn of Edenderry
James Daly or John Morran of Luggacurran
Michael Curran or John Lawlor of Borris in Ossory

Theres just a list looking over the LE results from Laois and Offally

Any thoughts? When is the convention?
There are rumours of discord between the Flanagan and Daly camps. From the day he won a council seat Daly made no secret of his ambition to run for the Dail but Flanagan doesn't want a running mate on his doorstep.

A few weeks ago the Leinster Express ran a story claiming that Lab was trying to poach Daly but some Flanagan people I've spoken to reckon that the Daly camp planted the story to up the ante before the selection convention.

There's some hinting about a high profile woman in Tullamore but I can't get a name.
 

LgCastell

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I think they need a high profile birr/tullamore candidate and i dont think buckley is up to it

i think quinn in edenderry and flanagan in laois would be a good strategy

would a second laois candidate be better or needed than a two offaly one laois or would they need four two from each but this could split the vote too much?

A good woman to replace enright in tullamore/birr is a must

BVB can u expand on the rumours?
 

Baron von Biffo

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I think they need a high profile birr/tullamore candidate and i dont think buckley is up to it

i think quinn in edenderry and flanagan in laois would be a good strategy

would a second laois candidate be better or needed than a two offaly one laois or would they need four two from each but this could split the vote too much?

A good woman to replace enright in tullamore/birr is a must

BVB can u expand on the rumours?
Sorry LG but I can't. My source, for want of a better word, is a few Laois FG people I know. They're talking about a 'big surprise' and 'a shoo in' but wont name names. It could all be hot air or party games trying to psyche out the others.

A strong Tullamore based woman would make a lot of sense for them - remember most of Enright's home patch will be in Tipp North next time. If they hope to make a big breakthrough though they need to be looking at getting 3 here.

They also tell me that a FG poll shows Flanagan safe, Moloney in trouble and Stanley on 15%. That Stanley number, if true, could bugger Lab particularly if they go with the 2 councillors ticket that's been mooted for some time now.
 

Panopticon

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Surely Labour cannot go with 2 cllrs if they want to maintain any pretence of winning the seat. Having said that, of course they aren't going to win the seat in the presence of Stanley, who will beat them out of a place if one is available.
 

biffo50

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Tommy McKeigue will definitely not run, he ran in 1989 but never since and has no interest in it.
Molly Buckley will probably throw her hat in the ring but can't see the sense in it. She contested the 1992, 2002 and 2007 general elections and got nowhere.
I know Olwyn is out of the race and that might help her slightly but not enough to get elected. Molly is involved in so many organisations in Tullamore but not well known in the rest of Offaly.
If I had to advise FG, I'd say let them put forward Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy in the south of the county, and either Liam Quinn or Nichola Hogan in the Edenderry/Rhode area.
Liam Quinn, who is from Rhode and a vocational teacher in Edenderry, has a strong background in Young Fine Gael. However, his problem is that he is unknown in Tullamore.
John Clendennen from Kinnitty is also putting his name forward, I reckon that's just to get himself known in time for the next council elections in 2014, when his father, long-serving councillor Percy, is expected to stand down.
Whether FG will have a second Laois candidate I can't say. I know Paddy Buggy from Mountmellick is seeking a nomination.
I would not rule out Labour taking a seat in the constituency if they can find a good candidate. As things stand, I understand that there are unconfirmed plans for a convention next week, and matters should be clearer then.
John Moloney is certainly at risk, and Brian Stanley has to be considered to be in with a shout if Labour does not find a suitable candidate.
I can't see the sense in Labour putting forward the two O'Briens. Jim and Sean are both decent guys, but Jim got nowhere in the 2007 election and failed to win a council seat last year.
Likewise, Sean O'Brien has run for election many times and while he is a member of Tullamore Town Council, he lost his County Council seat (was co-opted in 1999 following Pat Gallagher's resignation) in 2004 and failed to regain it last year.
If these guys can't win council seats, what's the sense in putting them forward for the Dáil?
Of course, we don't know the FF lineout either. Despite everything, Cowen will still top the poll but his vote will be well down. Moloney seems shakey, Fleming has not confirmed whether or not he will run.
As regards the fourth candidate, one wonders if John Foley, who nearly defeated Moloney in 2007, will be a candidate? His relationship with the party organisation has not been the best owing to his support for the campaign to retain Daingean fire station, which has put him at odds with the Council's policies.
I have also heard rumours that Councillor Sinéad Dooley, who manages Brian Cowen's constituency office, might be a candidate, but can't say if there is any truth in that.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Tommy McKeigue will definitely not run, he ran in 1989 but never since and has no interest in it.
Molly Buckley will probably throw her hat in the ring but can't see the sense in it. She contested the 1992, 2002 and 2007 general elections and got nowhere.
I know Olwyn is out of the race and that might help her slightly but not enough to get elected. Molly is involved in so many organisations in Tullamore but not well known in the rest of Offaly.
If I had to advise FG, I'd say let them put forward Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy in the south of the county, and either Liam Quinn or Nichola Hogan in the Edenderry/Rhode area.
Liam Quinn, who is from Rhode and a vocational teacher in Edenderry, has a strong background in Young Fine Gael. However, his problem is that he is unknown in Tullamore.
If FG ran a good candidate from the Edenderry end and (s)he kept ahead of Foley, would local transfers get them over the line?

Whether FG will have a second Laois candidate I can't say. I know Paddy Buggy from Mountmellick is seeking a nomination.
Buggy was sorely disappointed with the close result in the locals. I've met him a few times and he seems like a nice guy but I really can't see him as TD material. If it was a fight between him and Daly you'd have to go with the latter.

I would not rule out Labour taking a seat in the constituency if they can find a good candidate. As things stand, I understand that there are unconfirmed plans for a convention next week, and matters should be clearer then.
John Moloney is certainly at risk, and Brian Stanley has to be considered to be in with a shout if Labour does not find a suitable candidate.
I can't see the sense in Labour putting forward the two O'Briens. Jim and Sean are both decent guys, but Jim got nowhere in the 2007 election and failed to win a council seat last year.
Likewise, Sean O'Brien has run for election many times and while he is a member of Tullamore Town Council, he lost his County Council seat (was co-opted in 1999 following Pat Gallagher's resignation) in 2004 and failed to regain it last year.
If these guys can't win council seats, what's the sense in putting them forward for the Dáil?
I keep hearing Sean O'Brien and Pat Bowe mentioned for a two candidate ticket for Lab. I think that would be guaranteed to fail. 2 candidates is insane for Lab here and I don't think either would get within a mile of winning. SF would be the winner if they swept up a few No.2s. Jim O'Brien's wife works in the Dunamaise theatre here and I've met him a few times. He's quite a sharp guy. If there's a Gilmore Gale he might do it, particularly with one 'empty' seat in the constituency. If there's no wind behind them though Lab will struggle.

Of course, we don't know the FF lineout either. Despite everything, Cowen will still top the poll but his vote will be well down. Moloney seems shakey, Fleming has not confirmed whether or not he will run.
As regards the fourth candidate, one wonders if John Foley, who nearly defeated Moloney in 2007, will be a candidate? His relationship with the party organisation has not been the best owing to his support for the campaign to retain Daingean fire station, which has put him at odds with the Council's policies.
I have also heard rumours that Councillor Sinéad Dooley, who manages Brian Cowen's constituency office, might be a candidate, but can't say if there is any truth in that.
Hard to see Fleming bowing out, FF is in the DNA there every bit as strong as the Cowens.

Before the week of the big lies I'd have bet that Laois/Offaly was the one constituency where FF had a rock solid 3 Now I wouldn't risk my fiver. Cowen and Flanagan are dead safe and most likely one more FF. After that it's 2 seats between FF/FG/Lab/SF with the edge probably going to FG and SF as of now.
 

LgCastell

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biffo50 whos Marcella Corcoran Kennedy?

and although Quinn isnt well known in tullamore i think a good high profiler based in tullamore asking them to give quinn a stroke while he focus on his eastern side of the county might be ok and may diminish the importance of having an est rep in tullamore

same with laois i think if they are goin to run two candidates in laois itd have to be flanagan based in portlaoise and a borris in osroy candidate in the west but dont know what the standard of the b-i-o cllrs are

whats SF Brian Stanley?

I cant see lab picking one up here and if they do i think we could be looking at a Lab lead gov

An FG gain will be high on the cards in FG HQ they have two elected TDs FF on the ropes and Lab and SF dont have the set up or cllrs FG do ...
 

vision

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Flanagan a dead cert as is Cowen though think his numbers will drop considerably. FG need someone with charisma so that rules Paddy Buggy out, nice guy but tries too hard. Daly's young but has had a good run as Councillor, easy to talk to and has schoolboy charm FG could do worse.
Labour might still pull one out of the bag if the candidate is strong enough but think Brian Stanley could well do it for SF.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Flanagan a dead cert as is Cowen though think his numbers will drop considerably. FG need someone with charisma so that rules Paddy Buggy out, nice guy but tries too hard. Daly's young but has had a good run as Councillor, easy to talk to and has schoolboy charm FG could do worse.
Labour might still pull one out of the bag if the candidate is strong enough but think Brian Stanley could well do it for SF.
Stanley has done the hard slog but he's not known outside Portlaoise. He'll be depending on a national swing to get over the line. For SF candidates this time out a lot will depend on how Adams handles himself in his first Dail election.
 

vision

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Agree Stanley not known outside of Portlaoise but call it a feeling that people might vote SF. The anger towards FF is palpable would not like to be Fleming or Moloney where I live.
 

LgCastell

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I have to saw this constituency is going to much more exciting than i previously thought

Originally I though that it'd be a swap of 1 seat to FG from FF i think it might be much better although i cant see wipe out for FF there vote has to be well down which will give room to FG/SF/Lab

Dec 12th is FG selection according to Leinster Express
No mention of Lab one yet
 

ICallely

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Minister Moloney should consider retiring gracefully, pension intact.

There is a lot of disgruntlement with him - the new merc. didn't win him any favours, nor did the new driver.

No chance, though , it's not in the nature of Fianna Fail to relinquish power, ever.
 

Baron von Biffo

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Minister Moloney should consider retiring gracefully, pension intact.

There is a lot of disgruntlement with him - the new merc. didn't win him any favours, nor did the new driver.

No chance, though , it's not in the nature of Fianna Fail to relinquish power, ever.
Moloney is the least offensive of the 3 to my mind and he seemed genuinely interested in his brief.
 

Effin Effer!!!

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Still reckon it will be 3 Fianna Fail and 2 Fine Gael at the end of the day. Fifth seat was fought over between two Fianna Fail candidates in 2007. Even with a serious vote drop one would elect the other in 2011.

Two offaly candidates are more than likely to be on the ticket as Flanagan will resist a rival in Laois. Nicola Hogan is the only declared candidate in North Offaly to my knowledge so far. Presume the other would be Tullamore or southern based, one to elect the other.

On an aside I've heard that Michael Gowing the outgoing President of Macra na Feirme is interested in running for Fine Gael in Laois. Anyone got any info on this?
 


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