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Fianna Fail - An overall majority by the summer


rockofcashel

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People,

I've just realised from looking at the figures, that if FF win in both Meath and Kildare in a fortnight, they will have 82 Dail seats. Thats just one short of the magincal overall majority.

Now condsidering that they are currently in negotiations with Dr. Jerry Cowley, the indepenent member from Mayo, and I believe advances have been made to Pauge Connoly in Cavan-Managhan, and there are 5 or 6 members of the FF gene pool currently in the Dail, am I going to far into conspiracy theory land with the following scenario.

Lets say they win, and go up to 82. They reassure the electorate that the coalition is steadfast, and its staying together. The PD's then take flak for the Government, most notably Mary Harney in regard to the Pensions debacle, and Mc Dowell continues bashing the Shinners.

Over a period of time, the Pension scheme will be sorted, a system for repayment in place, which will no doubt shaft many of those entitled to repayment, but, crucially for FF, it'll be Mary getting hammered.

Sinn Fein will then win more seats in the Westminister elections, solidifying their position as the Northern nationalists party of choice, but, crucially Mc Dowell will continue to hammer them. Behind the scenes, Berties men will be negotiating with SF, to get a deal in place, which will leave Mc Dowell hanging out to dry.

As anyone knows Mc Dowell would flip a gasket, and walk, but crucially FF would have a Dail majority, and would have the ability to secure a deal on the North. This historic peace deal would make Bertie the man to solve the Irish question, cue sainthood, and even bigger overall majority, as the middle Irelanders who sway between FF. FG and PD's would flock to FF.


FG would along with the PD's be harangued for trying to stop the peace deal, and would suffer further in the polls. SF, would also take credit for any peace deal, and would come up close by Lab, leaving Labour to forget about tackling FF in the centre, while they try to secure their left wing from up and coming SF.

FF would then be sitting pretty, with an enhanced Dail overall majority, and any semblance of an opposition in tatters, and in desperate political battle with each other, rather than taking on FF.

So, does anyone think that Bertie, if he got more than 83 seats, through elctoral sucess, and members joining or re-joining, would kick the PD's to touch ?
 

Danny

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Except if it's a Peace Deal without an end to criminality, McDowell will be right to walk away and the people will turn to FG/PD. If it's a Peace Deal with an end to criminality McDowell wont leave and he will be rewarded for finally putting an end to IRA criminality.
That theory was easy to pick holes in! :wink:
 

pluralist

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rockofcashel said:
As anyone knows Mc Dowell would flip a gasket, and walk, but crucially FF would have a Dail majority, and would have the ability to secure a deal on the North. This historic peace deal would make Bertie the man to solve the Irish question, cue sainthood, and even bigger overall majority, as the middle Irelanders who sway between FF. FG and PD's would flock to FF.
Your vision of the future sounds appalling to me! I was under the impression we already have a peace deal and a lot of people are starting to think the main problem is too many capitulations to terrorist and ex-terrorists, rather than not enough.
 

Gael

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Right rockofcashel, you're saying that if these by-elections go perfectly for FF,and FF then have another perfect six months or so after, they'll have a majority? Hmm, doesn't correspond too well to politics in the real world. Murphy's Law should be the ultimate political motto.

FF were probably hoping that they the locals would go perfectly and they'd be back with a comfortable majority on every council. That didn't happen and that wasn't even a year ago. And don't be so innocent to think that one generous budget will put things back the way they were in 2002.
 

rockofcashel

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Gael said:
Right rockofcashel, you're saying that if these by-elections go perfectly for FF,and FF then have another perfect six months or so after, they'll have a majority? Hmm, doesn't correspond too well to politics in the real world. Murphy's Law should be the ultimate political motto.

FF were probably hoping that they the locals would go perfectly and they'd be back with a comfortable majority on every council. That didn't happen and that wasn't even a year ago. And don't be so innocent to think that one generous budget will put things back the way they were in 2002.
Look I'm just exploring the possibilities. I mean things dont have to go too perfectly, two bye election wins, which is by no means impossible leaves them one short, and they've plenty ex FF'ers that'll see them right.

As for Pluralist, my vista appals me too, but doesnt mean its not possible.

As for Danny, I'm sure Bertie, being as cunning as he is, could engineer a situation whereby Mc Dowell would have no option but to walk away.

A weeks a long time in Politics, so a lot can happen in six months, and be forgiven within two years
 

Danny

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rockofcashel said:
As for Danny, I'm sure Bertie, being as cunning as he is, could engineer a situation whereby Mc Dowell would have no option but to walk away.
Why? Why rock the boat? Their figures [if not as high as 42%] are still pretty high for a party that was hammered a few months ago. I don't see why Bertie would want to ruin a good thing-they're a great couple!
 

Libero

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rockofcashel said:
Behind the scenes, Berties men will be negotiating with SF, to get a deal in place, which will leave Mc Dowell hanging out to dry.

As anyone knows Mc Dowell would flip a gasket, and walk, but crucially FF would have a Dail majority, and would have the ability to secure a deal on the North.
Do you mean to say a deal that would not contain what the PDs want in terms of an end to provisional criminality or a real SF break from the IRA?
That is what I think of when you talk of a deal that would "work" but leave McDowell fuming.
Of course the main problem there is that Ian Paisley will hardly accept anything that McDowell would sneeze at. It's not only southern politicians who have grown more sceptical about Sinn Féin over the last couple of months.

This historic peace deal would make Bertie the man to solve the Irish question, cue sainthood, and even bigger overall majority, as the middle Irelanders who sway between FF. FG and PD's would flock to FF.
Nonsense, I'm afraid. We've had peace deals before. Even if a new one appeared to have IRA concessions like last December's (i.e. something close to military disbandment), the average southern everyman would want commitments on criminality from Sinn Féin and the IRA. If Bertie could not deliver that, he would be savaged.
We'll probably disagree, but I don't see FF gaining from a position where they implicitly endorse gangsterism for a reward - no violence - that the southern people have already been enjoying for the last decade.

But fair play for speculating - it's interesting. And we know that FF want rid of the PDs. Strangely, I think the PDs would do better to initiate divorce proceedings. It would have to be a quickie though...
 

rockofcashel

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Do you mean to say a deal that would not contain what the PDs want in terms of an end to provisional criminality or a real SF break from the IRA?
That is what I think of when you talk of a deal that would "work" but leave McDowell fuming.

Of course the main problem there is that Ian Paisley will hardly accept anything that McDowell would sneeze at. It's not only southern politicians who have grown more sceptical about Sinn Féin over the last couple of months.
See guys, Libero's getting it. You all seen the film Conspiracy Theory didnt you. Every now and again, they might actually be right.

Yeah Libero, I think a break from the military wing, which would mean a standing down of the IRA. Now people will jump up an down about an "end to criminality" all they like, but if there's assurances that it will be minimised in the initial period, before allowing the full force of the law to chase after it after a period of time, then I believe that the Irish people would put up with it. Look at it like this, according to the world and their mothers, the Guards have been turning a blind eye to "criminality" for a long time now. Does anyone honestly believe that if the IRA announced in the morning, that they were standing down, the Irish people would say thanks but no thanks. Its this kind of flawed thinking and misunderstanding of the mindset of the Irish people that has some parties floundering.

As for the question of Paisley. I'm SF to the core, and I have to admit, I'm perplexed by the man. In the middle of the hardest time SF are getting for years down here, up he turns on the news holding his hand out in a reasonably concilliatory manner. anyone else find this strang. Anyone else willing to offer any explanation why? Maybe he knows something we dont about what might come out of a new set of talks.


Nonsense, I'm afraid. We've had peace deals before. Even if a new one appeared to have IRA concessions like last December's (i.e. something close to military disbandment), the average southern everyman would want commitments on criminality from Sinn Féin and the IRA. If Bertie could not deliver that, he would be savaged.

Not talking concessions Libero. talking the whole nine yards. Disbandment. What in reality do committments on criminality mean anyways. If Gerry gives a committment on criminality, and I nick a car, is that SF's fault ? In the case of the IRA standing down, anyone who had been involved in the IRA, who continues an involvement in criminality, would just face the riguors of the law. They'd be on there own. Irish people would live with that.

We'll probably disagree, but I don't see FF gaining from a position where they implicitly endorse gangsterism for a reward - no violence - that the southern people have already been enjoying for the last decade.
You honestly dont think they'd get a reward from being the party to shut down the 'RA. Methinks your opinon is wrong. But acknowledges that your entitled to it.

But fair play for speculating - it's interesting. And we know that FF want rid of the PDs. Strangely, I think the PDs would do better to initiate divorce proceedings. It would have to be a quickie though...
Thats a point I'd also make to Danny. What you see as a good thing Danny, your average FF'er hates the PD's with a passion. And your right Libero, they'd be better jumping before they were pushed. But if theu were cast in the wiilderness mid-term, they'd be in very poor shape. Anything they tried to hammer FF with, FF would just ask what they did when they were in power. Remember, the PD's had power when they could walk away, now that option doesnt arise.
 

Badnarik_Eire

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mjcoughlan said:
I think the PDs and Fine Gael should merge and form the Conservative Party of Ireland like the Progressive Conservatives and the smaller Canadian Alliance did in Canada.
Problem is they are liberals.

I laugh at two things:1. Removing the PDs means a peace deal

2. the idea of a FF majority
 

LordJagged

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I think the PDs and Fine Gael should merge and form the Conservative Party of Ireland
That could form a very attractive option to fill a vacuum on the centre right in this country.

Trouble would emerge from the leftists in FG however.
 

Shepherd

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mjcoughlan said:
I think the PDs and Fine Gael should merge and form the Conservative Party of Ireland like the Progressive Conservatives and the smaller Canadian Alliance did in Canada.
Amazing though it may seem to some on these boards, the word "Conservative" would be unaccptable to the great majority of PDs. McDowell regards himself as a radical liberal, and economically, from an Irish context, he is.
 

mjcoughlan

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Shepherd said:
Amazing though it may seem to some on these boards, the word "Conservative" would be unaccptable to the great majority of PDs. McDowell regards himself as a radical liberal, and economically, from an Irish context, he is.
Can you tell me what the difference is between modern-day conservatism and liberalism? McDowell may regard himself as a liberal but I don't believe that is meant in the same way that John Kerry, for example, calls himself a liberal.
 

crosswind

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So, does anyone think that Bertie, if he got more than 83 seats, through elctoral sucess, and members joining or re-joining, would kick the PD's to touch ?
Imagine the meeting where bertie tells the left wing of the Fianna Fail party that they have an overall majority but the optics are better with a coalition involving the PDs. It was quite telling that both bertie before Christmas and Dermot Ahern over the weekend were making subtle overtures to the Labour party either by reminiscing about being in coalition with Labour or by attacking Labour for ruling out a coalition with Fianna Fail. Does flirting constitute cheating.

The liberal tag may fit the PDs to a certain extent but the socialist one does not. It was a surprise when Bertie started talking about it first, amusing in a way, but if the government is swinging to the left under a socialist banner, the PDs will not be seen as radical but redundant. There's a lot of spin around at the moment, not much actual innovation from government. The last policy that really sparked a thought that this might be something new and different was, well major one, was decentralisation, if anyone has something else more recent please remind me. It's important to ask what the alternative will provide the country with but so too is what is being provided in the here and now.

Michael McDowell seems quite happy in his job at the moment and the only sign that there was any disagreement between him and Bertie was over the naming of some of the IRA army council members. Other than that they seem to have been speaking from the same hymn sheet. It was hard to see in the past Fianna Fail gelling so well with him.

The FF overall majority point might not happen in this Dáil term but there is the possiblity that the political winds could be turning toward Fianna fail and a popular again Bertie Ahern and next time out the Fianna Fail show could go one better.
 

Harpey

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No wonder the PD's are deflating the FF wheels behind their back by running the granny candidate in Kildare. By god she was hounding us on the canvass last sat.
 

LowIQ

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Rumour has it that Mildred Fox in Wicklow is being wooed to join FF too. Anything that gets the PDs out of government can only be good for the country.
 

eurocrat

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I think FF need the PDs in government so that they can take the flack for the unpopular discisions. It gives the party leadership a good excuse with the root and branch membership "Oh, the PDs made us do it" type of thing.

Bertie plays the PDs like a fiddle.
 

Harpey

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Bertie plays the PDs like a fiddle.
Met Bertie on Sat. he does rather play the fiddle when and where he can. Damn talented musician.
 

eurocrat

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You have to get a few drinks in him first then theres no stopping him.
 
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