Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

QuietKerryman

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Following the recent discussion on Fine Gael's chances next time out, I thought it was tiem to open a thread on the possibility of FF gains in the next election.
Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?

Elsewhere in the big smoke, if Mary Harney retires, I think that Luke Moriarty could make a bold bid for her seat. He polled an impressive 3,700 odd first preferences last time out.

Brian Lenihan will be under pressure to bring in a second FF in Dublin West, especially if he becomes Tanaiste, while Seamus Brennan and Tom Kitt will be under similiar pressure to bring in Maria Corrigan. She went very close last time out and will be in the hunt again.

I think that FF will hold their existing seats in Leinster, though with Louth becoming a 5-seater, Dermot Ahern will be under pressure to bring in a third FF seat here. In Munster, there will be some interesting contests to follow. Rumour has it that John Brasill has been canvassing North Kerry/WEst Limerick with Gerry Collins. Brasill has been mentioned as a second FF Candidate for some time now and his chance could come here. I think he will give McEllistrim a run for his money. In South Kerry, Tom Sheahan will be under pressure to hold on with the constituency reduced to two.
 


meriwether

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There is only one certainty anymore about Irish elections - there is no certainty.
The days when FF were guaranteed 45%, and FG 31/32% (and I mean guaranteed, nailed on certainty) are over.

Both parties have experienced decline in the last 2 decades. FG's has been more arresting than FF's - the headline 2002 election being case in point, but remember, FF got 32% in the locals in 2004.
It is conceviable that they only get 32% in 2011, or it is conceviable they get an overall majority.
The same applies to FG- it could be 22, or 32%.

Anyhow, I happen to think this uncertainty is a very good thing, even though it has harmed my own party.
I think its good for the country that buffoons are no longer guaranteed election just because they run for the right party.
 

Clive

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Queen Scotia said:
Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?
Dublin North is remaining a 4 seater, the constituency commission didn't add an extra seat.
 

tonys

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meriwether said:
There is only one certainty anymore about Irish elections - there is no certainty.
The days when FF were guaranteed 45%, and FG 31/32% (and I mean guaranteed, nailed on certainty) are over.

Both parties have experienced decline in the last 2 decades. FG's has been more arresting than FF's - the headline 2002 election being case in point, but remember, FF got 32% in the locals in 2004.
It is conceviable that they only get 32% in 2011, or it is conceviable they get an overall majority.
The same applies to FG- it could be 22, or 32%.

Anyhow, I happen to think this uncertainty is a very good thing, even though it has harmed my own party.
I think its good for the country that buffoons are no longer guaranteed election just because they run for the right party.
I agree entirely, in particular with your last sentence, in that this development allows for the odd able minded person to win out on the day.
 

cropbeye

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I would have thought Glennon would weaken the ticket at this stage.
 
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Clive said:
Queen Scotia said:
Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?
Dublin North is remaining a 4 seater, the constituency commission didn't add an extra seat.
Not sure why its a surprise as there were always 2 FF seats there in a 4 seater.

Some people seemed to have the idea that GP/Lab and SP would all get a seat with FF/FG getting one between them. Just got to wonder what they were smoking when they posted it.
 

bradán feasa

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Given that all forecasts made 5 days out from the last election were arse ways any one hazarding a guess here at this stage is certifiable.
 

hiding behind a poster

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Queen Scotia said:
Following the recent discussion on Fine Gael's chances next time out, I thought it was tiem to open a thread on the possibility of FF gains in the next election.
Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?
By saying that 2 out of 4 was a huge surprise, then surely you agree that 3 out of 5 would be an even bigger surprise? Anyway, there's a second left-wing seat in a 5-seater Dublin North, much more so than a third FF seat. Between them Ryan and Daly polled 10,000 votes, and its hard to see that vote not winning a seat for someone other than FF. As for Glennon, he retired because he felt he was having to wait in the queue too long for promotion, and that his talents were being passed over in favour of time-servers of lesser ability. The notion that he could be persuaded back in order to go for an almost unwinnable third seat is fairly fanciful.

Elsewhere in the big smoke, if Mary Harney retires, I think that Luke Moriarty could make a bold bid for her seat. He polled an impressive 3,700 odd first preferences last time out.
Unlikely. Harney's vote is personal, and will go all over the place when she retires. And Moriarty is frrom the very opposite end of the constituency to Harney, so he'd be likely to benefit less than the others. And at the end of the day he'd have to finish well ahead of both Fitzgerald AND Spain of SF in order to win a seat. Unlikely.

Brian Lenihan will be under pressure to bring in a second FF in Dublin West, especially if he becomes Tanaiste,
A lot depends on what Joe Higgins does. A problem with 3-seaters that become 4-seaters is that the main parties rarely have ready-made second candidates lined up, and Dublin West is no different. As such, the one who came nearest to winning the previous time tends to come through when the seats are increased, as they have a better base built up than anyone else.

while Seamus Brennan and Tom Kitt will be under similiar pressure to bring in Maria Corrigan. She went very close last time out and will be in the hunt again.
Its highly unlikely that Brennan will run again - so FF will be quite happy to hold two, and won't be realistically pushing for a third.

I think that FF will hold their existing seats in Leinster, though with Louth becoming a 5-seater, Dermot Ahern will be under pressure to bring in a third FF seat here.
Again, the votes aren't really there. If Kirk retires, they've find a good candidate to replace him, while their only other prospect for growth is in Drogheda - but Frank Maher has been well and truly eclipsed by O'Dowd there. If you look at the party figures in Louth, the most likely winners of an extra seat are FG, followed by the Greens, and only then by FF. A particular problem for FF in such constituencies, where the Greens, FG and Labour are all well represented, is that transfers between those parties leave FF needing to do it all with first-preferences - and those votes just aren't there for them.

In Munster, there will be some interesting contests to follow. Rumour has it that John Brasill has been canvassing North Kerry/WEst Limerick with Gerry Collins. Brasill has been mentioned as a second FF Candidate for some time now and his chance could come here. I think he will give McEllistrim a run for his money.
Possibly, but that's not a gain. Its just replacing McEllistrim with Brassil.

In South Kerry, Tom Sheahan will be under pressure to hold on with the constituency reduced to two.
Again, look at the votes. FG and Labour have 15,000 votes between them, against 22,000 for the combined FF/IND FF ticket. Without O'Donoghue's stature on the ticket, the FF vote must drop - but even if it doesn't, the combined 39% of the vote for FG/Labour would deliver a seat to one or the other. If its not Sheahan, it might even be Seamus Moynihan for Labour (if the rumours are true). But either way, there's too many votes there for them NOT to get a seat between them.
 

Defeated Romanticist

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meriwether said:
There is only one certainty anymore about Irish elections - there is no certainty.
The days when FF were guaranteed 45%, and FG 31/32% (and I mean guaranteed, nailed on certainty) are over.

Both parties have experienced decline in the last 2 decades. FG's has been more arresting than FF's - the headline 2002 election being case in point, but remember, FF got 32% in the locals in 2004.
It is conceviable that they only get 32% in 2011, or it is conceviable they get an overall majority.
The same applies to FG- it could be 22, or 32%.

Anyhow, I happen to think this uncertainty is a very good thing, even though it has harmed my own party.
I think its good for the country that buffoons are no longer guaranteed election just because they run for the right party.
FF's base is around 35-37%. The 2004 election saw many dyed in the blood FFers vote non-FF to punish FF and because they saw the election as irrelevent(they were locals afterall). They wouldn't dream of doing something so wreckless in a general.

As for pickups in 2012,
Dublin West, Dublim Mid West, Dublin NC, Dublin NE, Clare, Cork SC, CSW, Galway East, Galway West with Grealish if he joins, Laois Offaly, Louth, Roscommon, Tipp North and Wexford are all within easy reach with a small swing and the right candidate and strategy.
 

Defeated Romanticist

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hiding behind a poster said:
[quote="Queen Scotia":2ee14im2]Following the recent discussion on Fine Gael's chances next time out, I thought it was tiem to open a thread on the possibility of FF gains in the next election.
Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?
By saying that 2 out of 4 was a huge surprise, then surely you agree that 3 out of 5 would be an even bigger surprise? Anyway, there's a second left-wing seat in a 5-seater Dublin North, much more so than a third FF seat. Between them Ryan and Daly polled 10,000 votes, and its hard to see that vote not winning a seat for someone other than FF. As for Glennon, he retired because he felt he was having to wait in the queue too long for promotion, and that his talents were being passed over in favour of time-servers of lesser ability. The notion that he could be persuaded back in order to go for an almost unwinnable third seat is fairly fanciful.[/quote:2ee14im2]DN is an remains a 4 seater, so no gains for FF unfortnatly.

[quote:2ee14im2]Elsewhere in the big smoke, if Mary Harney retires, I think that Luke Moriarty could make a bold bid for her seat. He polled an impressive 3,700 odd first preferences last time out.
Unlikely. Harney's vote is personal, and will go all over the place when she retires. And Moriarty is frrom the very opposite end of the constituency to Harney, so he'd be likely to benefit less than the others. And at the end of the day he'd have to finish well ahead of both Fitzgerald AND Spain of SF in order to win a seat. Unlikely.[/quote:2ee14im2]
You're assuming that Moriarty will be the candidate again. Besides most of Harney's vote will go to FF when she retires

[quote:2ee14im2]Brian Lenihan will be under pressure to bring in a second FF in Dublin West, especially if he becomes Tanaiste,
A lot depends on what Joe Higgins does. A problem with 3-seaters that become 4-seaters is that the main parties rarely have ready-made second candidates lined up, and Dublin West is no different. As such, the one who came nearest to winning the previous time tends to come through when the seats are increased, as they have a better base built up than anyone else.[/quote:2ee14im2]
If DW was a 4 seater in the last election FF would have won two seats. As it was a three seater the decision was made to allow BL to run up a massive vote hoovering up all FF votes in the constituency. Now that it's a 4 seater the FF vote will be split evenly and we'll win two seats. FF came within 3% of two quotas in a four seater(37.45%) in DW last time. It will be an easy pick up with the right candidate.
[quote:2ee14im2]while Seamus Brennan and Tom Kitt will be under similiar pressure to bring in Maria Corrigan. She went very close last time out and will be in the hunt again.
Its highly unlikely that Brennan will run again - so FF will be quite happy to hold two, and won't be realistically pushing for a third. [/quote:2ee14im2]
The PDs will through everything at that constituncy with FOM, who unlike Liz O'Donnell is a worker and a good vote winner. The area added to the constituency was part of a strong area for her and if the PDs are still around she might take the mad hatter's seat. But without Brennen there won't be a third FF seat.
[quote:2ee14im2]I think that FF will hold their existing seats in Leinster, though with Louth becoming a 5-seater, Dermot Ahern will be under pressure to bring in a third FF seat here.
Again, the votes aren't really there. If Kirk retires, they've find a good candidate to replace him, while their only other prospect for growth is in Drogheda - but Frank Maher has been well and truly eclipsed by O'Dowd there. If you look at the party figures in Louth, the most likely winners of an extra seat are FG, followed by the Greens, and only then by FF. A particular problem for FF in such constituencies, where the Greens, FG and Labour are all well represented, is that transfers between those parties leave FF needing to do it all with first-preferences - and those votes just aren't there for them.[/quote:2ee14im2]
The Greens will transfer to FF like the PDs did, mark my words.
[quote:2ee14im2]In Munster, there will be some interesting contests to follow. Rumour has it that John Brasill has been canvassing North Kerry/WEst Limerick with Gerry Collins. Brasill has been mentioned as a second FF Candidate for some time now and his chance could come here. I think he will give McEllistrim a run for his money.
Possibly, but that's not a gain. Its just replacing McEllistrim with Brassil. [/quote:2ee14im2]

[quote:2ee14im2]In South Kerry, Tom Sheahan will be under pressure to hold on with the constituency reduced to two.
Again, look at the votes. FG and Labour have 15,000 votes between them, against 22,000 for the combined FF/IND FF ticket. Without O'Donoghue's stature on the ticket, the FF vote must drop - but even if it doesn't, the combined 39% of the vote for FG/Labour would deliver a seat to one or the other. If its not Sheahan, it might even be Seamus Moynihan for Labour (if the rumours are true). But either way, there's too many votes there for them NOT to get a seat between them. [/quote:2ee14im2]
A de facto gain for FF. 1 FF TD elected as CC, another elected by votes. if LP can get ahead of any INDs they will win a seat on left over FF transfers, SF and IND transfers too.
 

Dunny

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I would expect possible gains in Cork SW (2 elderly FG TD's - One will lose out), Tipp North (Hoctor to bring in a running mate), Galway West (Grealish), Dub NE (Brady), Dub NC ( Callelly), Wexford (McDonald)..
 

westkerryblue

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Queen Scotia said:
Following the recent discussion on Fine Gael's chances next time out, I thought it was tiem to open a thread on the possibility of FF gains in the next election.
Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?

Elsewhere in the big smoke, if Mary Harney retires, I think that Luke Moriarty could make a bold bid for her seat. He polled an impressive 3,700 odd first preferences last time out.

Brian Lenihan will be under pressure to bring in a second FF in Dublin West, especially if he becomes Tanaiste, while Seamus Brennan and Tom Kitt will be under similiar pressure to bring in Maria Corrigan. She went very close last time out and will be in the hunt again.

I think that FF will hold their existing seats in Leinster, though with Louth becoming a 5-seater, Dermot Ahern will be under pressure to bring in a third FF seat here. In Munster, there will be some interesting contests to follow. Rumour has it that John Brasill has been canvassing North Kerry/WEst Limerick with Gerry Collins. Brasill has been mentioned as a second FF Candidate for some time now and his chance could come here. I think he will give McEllistrim a run for his money. In South Kerry, Tom Sheahan will be under pressure to hold on with the constituency reduced to two.
FG would have as good a chance as ff and arguably a better one of getting 2 in north kerry/west limerick.neither will get it bar a huge change between then and now.As for Kerry South FG are going from strenght to strenght and have for the last 10 years.Tom Sheahan is building up quite a formidable base and will get a lot of Moynihan's vote which was mainly personal.Labour are just too weak to challenge FG without Moynihan.Can see FG hitting at least 30% with a decent running mate for Sheahan.
 

twowheelsgood

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The PDs were formed by a split from FF, and by the early 1990s there was little ideological difference between the two. The same cannot be said of FF & The GP

If the Dáil runs its full term, then we will likely have new boundaries. The economic slowdown could likely halt trajectory that many constituencies were heading in, but there could be enough movement to take a seat each from Donegal and Kerry, robbing FF of a seat in the former but not impacting them in the latter.
 

Richie Nixon

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If Dublin Mid West Swings anywhere, it will go back to Fianna Fail. Dublin Central, which is likely to lose Bertie and Gregory will both go to Fianna Fail. I could also see an extra seat in Cork, and potentially one in Laois/Offaly with Cowan now at the helm. Longford/Westmeath is another potential increase

Potential Losses
1.Dublin South West. However the seat up for grabs would only benefit Sinn Fein, and in particular Sean Crowe.
2.Dublin South East. Chris Andrew's is a lightweight, who if McDowell had performed properly before and during the election would not have been elected. His seat along with John Gormley's are both up for grabs, with the Labour Seat likly to go to Dermot Lacey should Quinn retire. I would suggest that any PD revival could be predicated on taking Gormless's or Andrew's seat. This is not beyond the realm of possibility, as the PD Vote is a party vote, and not a personaly one like is Mid West.

Of course this is all predicated on the Irish landscape remaining as it is, will little recession, and plentiful jobs etc. Otherwise we could have a whole new era of governance
 

hiding behind a poster

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Defeated Romanticist said:
You're assuming that Moriarty will be the candidate again. Besides most of Harney's vote will go to FF when she retires
Ok, so Moriarty won't necessarily be the candidate - but either way, it'd probably be a candidate from the Palmerstown/Lucan end - well away from Harney's base. And you can't say with any certainty that Harney's vote will go to FF, as it is very much a personal vote.

If DW was a 4 seater in the last election FF would have won two seats.
No they wouldn't!!! Gerry Lynam was, at the end of the day, a full 3,800 votes behind Joe Higgins for the hypothetical fourth seat, AFTER Lenihan's surplus was distributed.

As it was a three seater the decision was made to allow BL to run up a massive vote hoovering up all FF votes in the constituency. Now that it's a 4 seater the FF vote will be split evenly and we'll win two seats. FF came within 3% of two quotas in a four seater(37.45%) in DW last time. It will be an easy pick up with the right candidate.
No it isn't. I've noticed, DR, that you tend to assume (you probably don't notice you're doing this, but you do it) that the party you want to see win a seat will adapt strategically to any changes in a constituency - be they seat changes, retirements, or whatever - but the other parties will just roll over and accept that. In particular it was evident in the hilarious scenario you outlined recently in which Labour, a party with 8,000 members, just 20 TDs, no organisation across large swathes of the country, and an ageing parliamentary party, would just click their fingers and become a larger party that Fine Gael - a party with 5 times as many members (and growing), the youngest parliamentary party in the Dail, two and a half times as many Dail seats, three times as many councillors, and fully active organisation in EVERY constituency. And, like I say, you tend to do this when you're predicting seats as well. If DW was a 4-seater, it would immediately become the SP's top target, and all their manpower would be poured into it. FG would feel it necessary to blood a second candidate as a long-term strategy, and the Greens and SF would also move the constituency from "no hope" to "worth working on". The result of all that would be that with more candidates and fiercer competition, FF would not have the easy ride you're suggesting.


The PDs will through everything at that constituncy with FOM, who unlike Liz O'Donnell is a worker and a good vote winner. The area added to the constituency was part of a strong area for her and if the PDs are still around she might take the mad hatter's seat. But without Brennen there won't be a third FF seat.
I'd agree with that - indeed even WITH Brennan, a third FF seat is very unlikely. There's one seat that goes between FG, the PDs and Labour - and it tends to go wherever the national swing is going.

The Greens will transfer to FF like the PDs did, mark my words.
No they won't. Seriously. Listen to yourself.

A de facto gain for FF. 1 FF TD elected as CC, another elected by votes. if LP can get ahead of any INDs they will win a seat on left over FF transfers, SF and IND transfers too.
But not really a gain for FF, as they'd probably just be taking Healy-Rae's seat, and he always supported them anyway. But again you're ignoring the Fine Gael votes - why do you keep doing that? FG polled 4,500 votes MORE than Labour in Kerry South in 2007, while the transfers you're referring to, from the Greens and SF, only gained Labour 198 votes over FG. And even if the Labour candidate finishes ahead of the leader FG candidate, you've still got the second FG candidate's votes to be distributed.

I know you dream of a world with no Fine Gael in it, DR. I know you wish we didn't exist. But its really starting to affect your judgement. And what must REALLY annoy you is not just that we're still around, but that there's simply so damned many of us. We're everywhere you look, however much you try and ignore us in your constituency analysis.
 

hiding behind a poster

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westkerryblue said:
.As for Kerry South FG are going from strenght to strenght and have for the last 10 years.Tom Sheahan is building up quite a formidable base and will get a lot of Moynihan's vote which was mainly personal.
True. People forget that although Sheahan is Killarney-based, he has business and family connections all over the constituency, which always helps.

Can see FG hitting at least 30% with a decent running mate for Sheahan.
I think Cosai is a decent running mate. He's built a very strong base on the Dingle Peninsula, with the result that the others tend to ignore the area, making him even more dominant there.
 

meriwether

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As for pickups in 2012,
Dublin West, Dublim Mid West, Dublin NC, Dublin NE, Clare, Cork SC, CSW, Galway East, Galway West with Grealish if he joins, Laois Offaly, Louth, Roscommon, Tipp North and Wexford are all within easy reach with a small swing and the right candidate and strategy.
Tell me more about this small swing needed by FF to win in Galway East?
 


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